American Football

Where the Jets are and what they need to do

April 16, 2024

NFL: NFL Draft — Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Let us know what you think

As we all know, it’s NFL draft season, which is always a time of hope for NFL fans as they pray their teams will make the right moves to ensure future success. Maybe no franchise has pinned its hopes more on a single draft than the New York Jets this year. The Jets may feel that if they can add a couple of players who can make a difference they can ride off into the sunset holding a Lombardi Trophy high in New Orleans late in the night of February 9th 2025. They may be right, they may be wrong, but either way, that’s their goal.

After a disastrous 2024 season Jets general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh held on to their jobs by a thread. I mean a thin thread, like a line of silk with little staying power against any pull at all. The reprieve only resulted because Woody Johnson saw their best laid plans of mice and men go awry after four snaps in 2024. You can make your own assumptions about who are the mice and who are the men; I will say no more.

Joe Douglas entered this offseason with a single goal of a Super Bowl. Normally a GM looks to the future, keeps key players in place, then adds to the talent level. This is called team building for continued success. Of course, the Jets have had zero success with Joe Douglas at the helm (no playoffs; not even close), so it was time to drain the bank account and throw everything they had into one last gasp for glory.

Let’s see what Joe has done and what he hasn’t done.

What he’s done

First, Douglas convinced Aaron Rodgers to come back for another season. I don’t know if Rodgers was going to quit after an injured season. I doubt he wanted to go out that way. Rodgers seems like a guy who wants to go out on his own terms. He’s definitely not a quitter. Yet if Joe hadn’t worked on fixing the offensive line (something all of us have been screaming about since he was hired) Rodgers might have said no thanks. I mean he stood on the sideline and watched every Jets quarterback get mauled by every defensive unit they faced.

Joe brought in wide receiver Mike Williams as a second option in the passing game, so Garrett Wilson isn’t triple teamed. Douglas tried to do that last year with the horrific contract given to Allen (stone hands) Lazard and his albatross of a $44 million contract. Lazard’s salary cap hit last year was reduced to only $3.264 million, which means this year it’s a $12,184,000 cap hit and it’s over $13 million for the next two years after that. Lazard was benched late in a year the Jets needed wide receiver help, that’s how bad he was. The Jets will be chewing on that contract for years to come once he can be cut.

Joe traded to get back an offensive tackle the Jets had full control of (Morgan Moses) after the 2021 season. They let Moses walk in 2022, so the Jets had to send draft capital to the Baltimore Ravens to get him back. Joe also signed offensive tackle Tyron Smith and guard John Simpson to shore up the offensive line. He did this by pushing much of the cap hits for those contracts into future years. It’s just what Joe does.

Douglas traded a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Haason Reddick, who is a veteran edge player. Reddick has one year and $15 million left on his contract. He will need to be re-signed next year if the Jets want him back.

Douglas also signed free agent defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw from the 49ers for some reason. Joe signed him to basically a one year contract with four voidable years added so the Jets can pay for a player they don’t have next season. Kinlaw’s cap hit in 2024 is $2.85 million, but his voidable years amount to $4.4 million. This for a player who had four sacks and 25 quarterback hurries in 322 pass rush snaps. In 474 defensive snaps he had 20 total tackles and four sacks. He graded out as a much better pass rusher than run defender. His pass rush grade Per PFF was 70.3, but his run defense was a horrible 31.3. The Jets were great against the pass last year and terrible against the run. The Jets gave up the third fewest passing yards in 2023 and the 25th most rushing yards. So the Jets do zero to help the run defense but bring in a guy with four sacks?

Those were the major moves that get the Jets a starting lineup on paper of a playoff caliber team, sans any injuries, as the bench is mighty thin. I would not build a team in this fashion (God help us next year), but Joe did. If he wins the Lombardi it was worth it. If not, the Jets could be in for a world of hurt.

What didn’t he do?

Quite frankly, there’s a lot Joe Douglas didn’t do. The Jets have staggeringly little depth behind their starters.

The Jets were lucky they had a healthy CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams in 2023, but should either or both get injured, the Jets have little behind them at inside linebacker. If one gets injured the Jets will rely on Jamien Sherwood, Chazz Surratt or Zaire Barnes to take major snaps. Good luck with that.

The same goes for the retooled offensive line, as newly signed Tyron Smith hasn’t played every game of a season since 2015. Two of the last five seasons he didn’t play five games, and the most games he played in any of those seasons was 13 games once in the last five years. The depth on the offensive line is nonexistent unless you like a replay of last season.

Cap space is also nonexistent as the Jets don’t have the money to sign their draft picks. They have a grand total of $1,433,076 in cap space, which won’t cut it. Look for Joe to rework the contract of John Franklin-Myers, DJ Reed or Quinnen Williams in the coming days to push more money into the future.

The Jets still have Zach Wilson on the team, and he can’t be there when camp opens, as it will create a negative media buzz which is what you don’t want when you open camp. You had owner Woody Johnson say the Jets had no backup quarterback last year, and Wilson (who Woody loved as a draft prospect) was the quarterback in many games. If the Jets can’t trade Zach he will leave a $11,184,307 dead money hit to the cap space when cut, with zero savings.

The Jets were the third best team against the pass in 2023, with an offense that didn’t control the ball that often. The Jets were 25th in time of possession in 2023 as their defense was on the field a lot. The defensive backs of the Jets did most of the heavy lifting. The contracts of DJ Reed and Michael Carter II both expire after this season and they will look for huge raises. Sauce Gardner will be in his 3rd season, and although he isn’t due a new contract, he will definitely want one since he has far outplayed his rookie contract. If Sauce doesn’t get a new contract after next season you can expect a holdout for sure. All the financial moves in the world will not be able to afford that. Joe could have renewed a couple of contacts this year and received a discount since the players were getting money a year early, but that ship has sailed. It’s a good franchise move to reward your most productive players in a timely fashion instead of being forced to.

No one is talking about the Aaron Rodgers situation. No matter what the Jets do in 2024, if Rodgers doesn’t come back in 2025 the Jets will be without a viable quarterback and be in a salary cap death trap. Rodgers base salary for 2025 is only $2.5 million. It’s only $3,161,112 for 2024. That’s because of all the prorated money Rodgers is getting. Rodgers cap hit for 2024 is $17,161,112. His cap hit for 2025 is $23,500,000, which doesn’t seem that bad, but you have to remember Joe Douglas is the king of voidable years. Rodgers has four voidable years added onto his contract that the Jets have to pay immediately when he retires. Those four void able years (money Rodgers already received) total $63 million that they have to fit into the cap for the year which (if Rodgers retires in 2025) would be an $84 million cap hit. Where will the Jets be in 2025 if Rodgers doesn’t come back?

Who would build a team this way?

We could go on but those are some of the major points.

What are the players the Jets may need in the draft?

The Jets have only a few open needs among the starters, but the depth is scary to say the least.

Offensive tackle

I would say the Jets desire a starting caliber offensive tackle. It’s a definite need. It’s unlikely the Jets starters will last every game in 2024. Also you have two very good veteran tackles who could be a wealth of knowledge to a developing young tackle. Use that veteran leadership and knowledge to school a young tackle. He may be needed so he would be great to have, but the learning he can get from a future Hall of Fame player like Tyron Smith is incalculable. An offensive tackle would also add a safety factor for Aaron Rodgers. A tackle like Joe Alt would be hard to pass up, or in a trade down situation Troy Fautanu or Taliese Fuaga would be nice.

Wide receiver

I put in wide receiver since the Jets have a couple of good receivers (we hope Mike Williams comes back strong), but the depth behind them is poor and our slot receivers are untested. Malik Taylor has nine career receptions in three years and second year player Xavier Gipson is more of a return man who had 21 receptions all of last year.

The Jets could definitely add some young talent to the receiver room. They could do that in a couple of ways. First, if a receiver like Rome Odunze makes it to pick #10 it would be difficult for the Jets not to pick him. He is a major talent and would make the wide receiver room so much better. Odunze played 17.4% of his snaps last year out of the slot so he could do that. Also you can work Garrett Wilson into the slot more to get him a free release, or Gipson could play there in four receiver sets. I don’t think you can let a talent like Odunze slide. He would only be available because this is such a deep draft. The chances of Marvin Harrison or Malik Nabers making it to the Jets are virtually nil, so if Odunze is there he is definitely an option.

Another option is an underrated Brian Thomas Jr., who has great talent, especially as a deep threat who can stretch zones, make tough catches and make those around him better because he takes away coverage. Thomas’s 17 TD catches in 2023 were no fluke. He could be available if the Jets trade down a few spots and add a third round pick.

Linebacker

One of the areas not talked about is linebacker and the lack of depth. Jamien Sherwood has been with the Jets for 3 years with 77 total tackles to his name. He is not a fast player so he is a nightmare in coverage. He played a total of 193 snaps last year, so he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a player.

I see the need for another linebacker, but I can’t see using major draft capital on the position. If the Jets trade down, pick up a few needs then find a player like Payton Wilson sitting there at #72, sure, but the other needs seem to trump the linebacker need for right now. If an injury happens there are always a few okay type stop gap guys to sign off the street or pinch from someone’s practice squad. On a team that builds for the future the linebacker need is real, but the Jets aren’t one of those teams. The Jets need to address this need long term, but they have more pressing needs right now.

Safety

Safety is another area where the Jets can help themselves long term, but it is not a super need now. It would be nice to bring in a Tyler Nubin (whom the Jets like a lot) or a Jaden Hicks to learn from a guy like Chuck Clark, who will not be around long. This again is probably a trade down scenario, since I don’t see Nubin available at #72. Hicks is a possibility there at #72, but that may be a long shot.

The Jets definitely need a guy who can come in and grow with this defense as a back-end coverage and run supporter.

Interior offensive lineman

I could see the Jets drafting another player on the interior line, and there are a few good ones available. I don’t see the Jets using priority draft capital on the interior line, though investment on the offensive line is always wise in the long run. I believe there are some special interior offensive linemen in this draft, but the Jets can’t use those picks here. I wish they could, but it just won’t happen.

Summary

Those are most of the priority needs the Jets currently have. They have a tiny window of opportunity for this year if things go right, but that’s the same for around half the teams in the NFL. Many times you see teams win the Super Bowl with very good teams, but they also have very few injuries. The Jets have a lot of options to explore, they still have much to do in the area of roster construction.

Mock Drafts

I’m not a big mock draft kind of guy. Many times their player grades are so far different from mine I am able to draft an all star team with little effort. Yet I went to Pro Football Network and made some mock drafts so I would like to know which draft you liked the best. I can make a full draft, but the outcomes are so varied I stuck to the first three rounds for you to choose from. The Jets have only picks # 10 and 72 in the first three rounds.

Draft #1

Pick 10- Rome Odunze WR Washington

Pick 72- Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame

Draft #2

In a trade down scenario the Jets get # 13 and #77 from the Raiders

#13- Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

#72- Cole Bishop S Utah

#77- Ricky Pearsall WR (slot) Florida

Draft #3

In a trade down scenario the Jets get #18 and #49 from the Bengals, who replace Tee Higgins in a trade with the Steelers for pick #20 and a future 3rd round pick. Thus the Bengals pick Rome Odunze, then still have another 1st round pick in which they pick OT Amarius Mims.

Pick #18- Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

Pick #49- Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

Pick #72- Roman Wilson WR (slot) Michigan

Draft #4

In a trade down scenario the Jets get #25 and #41 from the Green Bay Packers, who select Terrion Arnold CB Alabama.

Pick #25- Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

Pick #41- Xavier Legette WR South Carolina

Pick #72- Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame

Draft #5

In a trade down scenario with the Tampa Bay Bucs the Jets receive #26, #57, #89 and #92 as the Bucs select Laiatu Latu Edge

#26- Jackson Powers-Johnson IOL Oregon

#57- Ricky Pearsall WR (slot) Florida