Pete Schrager mock draft: Giants trade up for J.J. McCarthy

Will the Giants find their QB of the future?

The 2024 NFL Draft is a little over a week away.

We’re in the home stretch for fans waiting to see who the newest New York Giants will be, as well as the crunchiest of crunch times for those of us covering the draft.

NFL Network insider Pete Schrager released his first — and only? — mock draft of the 2024 cycle on Tuesday morning.

(By the by, Ed told me last year that he does in fact read our work. So… Hi Pete!)

Schrager makes the bold move of projecting that the Giants will trade up with the Arizona Cardinals at fourth overall and select Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.

Schrager prefaces his mock by saying that it doesn’t necessarily reflect what he would do as the executive of a given team. Instead, it’s the product of “weeks” spent talking to general managers and head coaches around the NFL. Schrager says right at the top that his mock draft is explicitly informed by what he’s hearing from league sources.

4. New York Giants – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS

New York moves up two spots — tossing Arizona this year’s third-round pick (No. 70 overall) and next year’s second-rounder — to land McCarthy. This is merely a mock draft, but I could see this deal coming to fruition. Joe Schoen didn’t draft Daniel Jones, J.J. checks a lot of boxes, and Big Blue can get out of Jones’ contract after this upcoming season. I assume that this projection could make headlines in New York. That’s fine. I know the Giants have been going through all of the quarterback prospects diligently, as they should be.

Raptor’s thoughts

There are a lot of factors at play here. I’ll start with the bottom line: I think this is a very good move for the Giants, and one they will absolutely make if they get the opportunity.

Schrager’s projection of the trade up, and the player selected, is absolutely coming from things he’s hearing around the NFL, and he’s every bit as plugged-in as Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport. If Schrager is being this bold, it’s because he’s hearing a lot in some very strong language. His reputation is his stock and trade, and he’s not going to go out on a limb for no reason or just to create clicks.

Now, about McCarthy himself:

I’m not going to spoil the release of our Big Board, but after diving deeply into this year’s quarterback class, I’ve settled on McCarthy as my QB2. The deciding factors, and what’s elevated him, are his incredible field vision and processing speed, good accuracy, great arm strength (his ball velocity was only second to Josh Allen among recent combine measurements), and his play in high leverage situations.

Yes, Michigan didn’t rely on McCarthy often. But when they did turn to him, it was often in third-and-long and the opposing defense knew he’d be throwing, and he performed. His on-target rate of 71 percent on passes 20+ yards downfield lands well above the 80th percentile, as does his 81 percent on target rate when under pressure.

McCarthy certainly has things to work on, however the Giants would provide a good environment in which to do so. He wouldn’t have to play right away and would have a trio of good quarterback coaches in Brian Daboll, Mike Kafka, and Shea Tierney to work with.

It may seem like McCarthy’s rise has been manufactured since he wasn’t getting much media buzz before Michigan’s championship run. However, this is very much a case of the rest of us catching up to the NFL. Those of us on the outside don’t have the time to really dive into prospects like McCarthy until after the season and after they declare — there’s just too much going on during the college and NFL season. NFL scouts, however, that’s their job all year around.

After studying this year’s quarterback class, and getting some solid exposure to next year’s class while making the dozens (and dozens) of other scouting reports this year, I’m pretty confident in saying that I think this year’s class is much closer to the 2020 QB class than the 2021 class. In 2020 each of the first five quarterbacks drafted “hit”, and I think this year’s class could be as strong.

I don’t believe there’s much of a gap at all between QB1 and QB6 this year, and any of them could be QB1 next year, while QB1 next year might only be QB7 this year.

I also strongly believe that next year’s wide receiver class will be nearly as strong as this year’s. I already have a group of receivers – Emeka Egbuka (OSU), Colbie Young (UGA), Kyren Lacy (LSU), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), and Luthor Burden III (Missouri) — that I think will be hot commodities next year.

So the question facing the Giants is whether they would want to get Justin Herbert (a 2020 QB) and Jaylen Waddle (2021 receiver) or CeeDee Lamb (2020 receiver) and Justin Fields (2021 QB).

Losing the third-round pick stings in a deep draft, but I also happen to believe that the Giants’ roster is in a healthier place than many fans seem to. Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson aren’t spectacular, but they’re also underrated. Slayton has improved as a pass catcher and has become a solid separator. Hyatt has always had great ball skills and is a smarter route runner than he’s gotten credit for. And Robinson proved to be a great weapon underneath once he hit his stride during the season.

I also don’t believe the offensive line is quite as bad as it’s made out to be. The Giants’ finished the season 24th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate — not great, but not apocalyptic either. It’s also notable that Tyrod Taylor’s 8.6 percent sack rate was perfectly in line with his career average, and his 7.76 percent sack rate over the last three weeks was actually better than his sack rate as Buffalo’s starter. It also happened to be 24th in the NFL, same as the Giants’ pass block win rate.

Losing the third-round pick is worth it for a firm foundation in 2025 and beyond. I don’t particularly care about the future second, because in this scenario, the weakness of the 2025 quarterback class is a boon for the Giants. McCarthy may wind up being a much better option for the Giants than Daniel Jones, but Jones could be a better option for a quarterback-needy team next year and the Giants could trade him to recoup assets spent on acquiring McCarthy.

So in this scenario, the Giants could walk out of 2025 with their quarterback of the future, a receiver that’s almost as (or is as good) as a receiver drafted at 6 this year, and additional assets as well as greater salary cap flexibility.

That’s a deal Joe Schoen needs to make if he can.