Kirk Cousins and the History of Mega-Comebacks

So, um, a lot happened in the NFL in Week 15. But Quick Reads is first and foremost a statistical column, and the biggest statistical news of the week was the Minnesota Vikings’ record-setting comeback win against the Indianapolis Colts. How did Kirk Cousins and the Vikings win the game? How did Matt Ryan and the Colts lose it? And how do their performances stack up compared to the Ghosts of Comebacks Past?

Cousins finishes right smack in the middle of our quarterback tables this week, while Ryan is close to the bottom. Cousins, as you might expect, was the week’s worst quarterback in the first half, but its best in the second half and overtime. He failed to throw for a first down until the Vikings were down 30-0 late in the second quarter. Up to that point he had gone 4-of-8 for 33 yards with three sacks and a pick-six. That’s -126 passing DYAR, and had the Vikings thrown in the towel and pulled Cousins at that point (and who would have blamed them?) he would have finished as the worst quarterback of the week—yes, even worse than Mac Jones. Instead, Cousins stayed in the game and played like an entirely different quarterback from the third quarter onwards, leading Minnesota from a 33-0 halftime deficit to a 39-36 overtime win. After halftime, Cousins went 28-of-42 for 417 yards and four touchdowns, adding in a 13-yard DPI, an interception, and four sacks.

As you might expect, Ryan had better numbers in the first half than in the second, but his splits weren’t nearly as dramatic as Cousins’. In the first and second quarters, he went 9-of-15 for 118 yards and touchdown, with one sack. That’s a decent enough performance in 30 minutes of football, but Indy’s lead was built more on two return touchdowns (one on a blocked punt, another on Cousins’ pick-six) than on anything Ryan and the offense did. In fact, we might not be talking about this at all if Ryan and the offense had played better in scoring range. But the Colts had to settle for four Chase McLaughlin field goals in the first half, three of them from less than 30 yards away.

After halftime? Ryan was basically ineffectual. He didn’t turn the ball over (he had one fumble, but the Colts recovered) but threw for only 64 yards, going 10-of-18 with a pair of sacks. He finished as the week’s 11th-best quarterback in the first half, but the fourth-worst in the second half/overtime.

As it turns out, these results are typical for quarterbacks in mega-comebacks. The winning quarterbacks usually finish with more DYAR than the losers (duh), and they always improve after halftime while the losers decline (even more duh). It’s a little surprising, though, that the splits from one half to another are more extreme for the winners than they are for the losers. In plain English, winning quarterbacks in mega-comebacks usually go from god-awful to god-like, while in many cases the losing quarterbacks were nothing special to begin with, often standing by and watching (like Ryan) as their teammates built a big lead before collapsing down the stretch.

Stathead lists nine games in the DVOA era (since 1981) where a team trailed by more than 21 points at halftime but came back and won. (Expanding that halftime lead to exactly 21 points would roughly triple our sample size.) That includes one playoff game: Frank Reich rallying the Buffalo Bills from a 25-point halftime deficit to a 41-38 overtime win over Warren Moon and the Houston Oilers in the 1992 postseason. There another playoff comeback, though, that is so famous (infamous?) that it’s often referred to only by the margin that was overcome: 28-3. However, the Atlanta Falcons’ halftime lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI was only 21-3. Matt Ryan then threw a touchdown pass to Tevin Coleman midway through the third quarter before … well, you know the rest.

Here’s a list of the winning quarterbacks in those mega-comebacks (incuding Brady in the Super Bowl, because we knew we would get questions about that one). Cousins’ game scores as one of the worst here; he did, after all, take seven sacks and throw a pair of interceptions:

Winning QBs in Notable Comebacks, 1981-2022
Year	Week	Tm	Opp	QB	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sack	1H DYAR	2H/OT DYAR	Total DYAR
1982	1	GB	LAR	L.Dickey	17	27	237	3	3	2	-165	121	-44
1988	4	LARD	DEN	J.Schroeder	13	35	242	2	1	1	-84	95	11
1992	14	LAR	TB	J.Everett	25	38	342	3	0	0	48	187	235
1992	WC	BUF	HOU	F.Reich	21	34	289	4	1	3	-10	124	115
1996	17	NE	NYG	D.Bledsoe	31	47	301	2	2	2	-134	119	-15
2012	6	DEN	SD	P.Manning	24	30	309	3	1	0	-4	150	146
2013	12	NE	DEN	T.Brady	34	50	344	3	0	3	-61	187	126
2013	15	GB	DAL	M.Flynn	26	39	299	4	1	2	-57	152	95
2016	SB	NE	ATL	T.Brady	43	62	466	2	1	5	-24	121	98
2022	15	MIN	IND	K.Cousins	34	54	460	4	2	7	-128	159	31
Average					26.8	41.6	328.9	3.0	1.2	2.5	-61.7	141.4	79.7

The best game here, by total DYAR, belongs to Jim Everett of the 1992 Los Angeles Rams. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led 27-3 at halftime not so much because of anything Everett did, but because Vinny Testaverde threw a pair of touchdowns, Eddie Murray kicked a pair of field goals, and David Lang fumbled away a kickoff return, resulting in a score for Tampa Bay’s special teams. But the Rams shut the Bucs out in the second half while Everett threw for three touchdowns (and Lang redeemed himself with a score of his own) as the Rams won 31-27.

And here are the other guys: the quarterbacks with the biggest halftime leads that went on to lose.

Losing QBs in Notable Comebacks, 1981-2022
Year	Week	Tm	Opp	QB	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sack	1H DYAR	2H/OT DYAR	Total DYAR
1982	1	LAR	GB	B.Jones	17	31	202	1	2	4	34	-75	-41
1988	4	DEN	LARD	J.Elway	14	28	220	1	4	2	41	-98	-57
1992	14	TB	LAR	V.Testaverde	12	22	177	2	2	3	58	-60	-2
1992	WC	HOU	BUF	W.Moon	36	50	371	4	2	4	193	-91	102
1996	17	NYG	NE	D.Brown	14	34	215	0	1	2	97	-39	58
2012	6	SD	DEN	P.Rivers	25	41	241	2	4	4	99	-141	-41
2013	12	DEN	NE	P.Manning	19	36	150	2	1	2	-26	-76	-101
2013	15	DAL	GB	T.Romo	29	48	358	2	2	3	80	-121	-41
2016	SB	ATL	NE	M.Ryan	17	23	284	2	0	5	56	22	78
2022	15	IND	MIN	M.Ryan	19	33	182	1	0	3	42	-76	-34
Average					20.2	34.6	240	1.7	1.8	3.2	67.5	-75.4	-7.9

The best game here was by Warren Moon, who threw four first-half touchdowns to put the Houston Oilers up 28-3 at halftime over the Bills in Buffalo in the 1992 playoffs. Oilers linebacker Bubba McDowell opened the second half with a 58-yard pick-six to extend that lead to 35-3, but then the Bills scored five straight touchdowns (four Reich passes and a Kenneth Davis run) to go up 38-35. The Oilers got off the mat and scored a field goal to force overtime, but the Bills got a field goal of their own in the extra frame to win 41-38.

Comparing the two tables, we see that the winning quarterbacks played better than the losers on the whole, as you would expect. They completed more passes (64.4% to 58.4%) for more yards (7.9 per throw to 6.9) and more touchdowns, with fewer sacks and interceptions. Specifically, though, it’s notable that the bad first halves for the winners were about as bad (-61.7 DYAR on average) as the bad second halves of the losers (-75.4), but the good second halves for the winners (141.4 average DYAR) were much better than the good first halves of the losers (67.5). There’s a definite thread in some of these games where big leads built on first-half field goals were overtaken by flurries of second-half touchdowns.

The Comeback was the latest in a string of ugly wins for the Vikings, who are now 7-3 in games where they finish with a negative DVOA. They will likely be underdogs at home in the first round of the playoffs. As for the Colts, they’re stuck in no man’s land, with almost no chance of making the playoffs (believe it or not, they still win the AFC South in 0.2% of our simulations) but little hope for a top-five draft pick (only 35.3% of our simulations) either.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	36/41	336	2	0	2	161	161	0	HOU
Mahomes was the week’s best passer on throws to tight ends, completing 13 of 14 passes for 136 yards. He was also best on throws to his right (16-of-18 for 163 yards and two touchdowns) and in the second quarter (12-of-14 for 129 yards and two touchdowns).
2.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	27/42	318	4	1	1	149	155	-6	DAL
Lawrence gains 39 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, which is partly why he finished as the week’s best passer on third/fourth downs. His first three throws on those downs were all incomplete, but his last six were all completed for 66 total yards and five conversions, including two scores.
3.	Josh Allen	BUF	25/40	304	4	0	2	147	144	2	MIA
Allen led all quarterbacks in passing DYAR in the first quarter (5-of-7 for 99 yards and a touchdown) and in the red zone (5-of-8 for 39 yards and four touchdowns).
4.	Jared Goff	DET	23/38	252	1	0	0	123	123	0	NYJ
Goff gains 40 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the league’s top passer from under center, going 6-of-9 for 114 yards and a touchdown.
5.	Davis Mills	HOU	12/24	121	2	0	0	73	76	-4	KC
Most of Mills’ best throws came on third/fourth downs, where he completed five of nine passes for 45 yards with four conversions, including a touchdown. He picked up three more first downs on a trio of DPIs that gained a total of 44 yards.
6.	Mitchell Trubisky	PIT	17/22	179	0	0	1	68	65	3	CAR
Seven of Trubisky’s eight first downs came on throws that traveled at least 6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. On those throws, he went 7-of-10 for 119 yards.
7.	Brock Purdy	SF	17/26	217	2	0	1	65	65	0	SEA
Purdy spent a lot of time against Seattle ineffectually checking down to his running backs—specifically, Christian McCaffrey. He completed six of eight throws to McCaffrey, but for only 30 yards and one first down.
8.	Sam Darnold	CAR	14/22	225	1	0	4	62	66	-4	PIT
The Panthers lost to Pittsburgh in part because they kept settling for field goals—three of them in the fourth quarter alone. Inside the Steelers 40, Darnold went 2-of-3 for 22 yards and a touchdown, adding a 27-yard DPI, but he also took three sacks.
9.	Andy Dalton	NO	11/17	151	2	0	2	56	53	2	ATL
Dalton was tremendous when throwing to his right, completing six of eight passes (six in a row at one point) for 89 yards. Each of those completions resulted in a first down, including a 22-yard touchdown.
10.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	22/30	229	1	1	3	50	50	0	LAR
11.	Dak Prescott	DAL	23/30	256	3	2	3	40	39	1	JAX
Prescott was successful on a league-high 62% of his dropbacks, but that’s partly because he was playing what is now the lowest-ranked pass defense in the league. As a result, Prescott loses 42 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
12.	Geno Smith	SEA	32/44	238	1	0	3	35	26	8	SF
Good news: Smith gains a league-high 64 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, and he was the week’s best passer out of a no-huddle (8-of-10 for 88 yards and a touchdown). Bad news: Smith threw a league-high 12 failed completions, and he was the week’s worst passer in the first quarter (3-of-7 for 7 yards with a sack-fumble).
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Tom Brady	TB	30/44	312	3	2	1	33	51	-19	CIN
Brady was the week’s worst passer in the third quarter, going 4-of-8 for 34 yards with one first down, one sack-fumble, and one interception.
14.	Daniel Jones	NYG	21/32	160	0	0	0	33	24	9	WAS
Jones’ average pass traveled a league-low 3.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He did not throw a single deep pass, with nothing more than 13 yards downfield.
15.	Joe Burrow	CIN	27/38	200	4	1	2	31	25	5	TB
Burrow had more dropbacks in Tampa Bay territory than in his own, going 16-of-25 for 112 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
16.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	34/54	460	4	2	7	30	31	-1	IND
And now, three related statistics: 1) Cousins was the week’s best passer on throws to running backs, completing each of his five throws for 99 yards and four first downs, including a touchdown. 2) Cousins was the week’s best passer on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, going 7-of-8 for 119 yards and a touchdown. 3. Cousins’ average completion gained a league-high 8.2 yards after the catch.
17.	Derek Carr	LV	20/38	231	3	1	3	12	12	0	NE
And now, two related statistics: 1) Carr was the week’s worst passer on throws to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, going 2-of-5 for 9 yards with a pick-six. 2) Carr’s average completion gained a league-low 2.6 yards after the catch. In an unrelated statistic, he was the week’s worst passer from under center, going 3-of-7 for 22 yards with a sack and a pick-six. And that’s all despite gaining 46 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
18.	Deshaun Watson	CLE	18/28	161	1	0	3	10	3	7	BAL
Watson had a rough day on third downs, going 4-of-7 for only 18 yards, with as many conversions (two) as sacks taken. At least one of those conversions was a touchdown.
19.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	19/35	317	2	1	4	9	22	-14	DET
Wilson loses 39 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His average dropback came with a league-high 10.9 yards to go, which might explain why his average pass traveled a league-high 14.0 yards downfield. He threw 14 deep balls against Detroit, completing seven of them for 219 yards and a touchdown, with one interception.
20.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	17/30	234	2	0	2	0	-4	4	BUF
Tagovailoa’s average dropback came with a league-low 7.4 yards to go for a first down. He was the week’s best passer on deep balls, going 4-of-7 for 140 yards and two touchdowns.
21.	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	17/29	249	1	0	3	-5	-21	16	NYG
Heinicke was the league’s best passer in the third quarter (5-of-6 for 81 yards and five first downs, including a touchdown), but its worst on third/fourth down (2-of-7 for 18 yards with no conversions, two sacks, and a fumble).
22.	Justin Fields	CHI	14/21	152	2	0	6	-15	11	-25	PHI
Fields gains 37 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Including sacks, his average dropback gained league-low 3.4 yards—and that includes a mostly meaningless 35-yard touchdown pass on his last play of the game.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	13/26	97	0	0	4	-24	-31	7	NO
Ridder struggled on throws to his right, going 3-of-7 for only 14 yards.
24.	Justin Herbert	LAC	28/40	313	0	2	3	-27	-31	4	TEN
Herbert was the week’s worst passer inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, going 4-of-7 for 32 yards with two interceptions, one sack, and no touchdowns.
25.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	22/37	315	0	2	1	-28	-47	19	CHI
Hurts’ average dropback gained a league-high 8.1 yards, and he also led all quarterbacks in rushing DYAR, running 15 times for 63 yards and three touchdowns. So what’s he doing way down here? Only 11 of his dropbacks produced first downs, one of his completions lost 13 yards, and he threw a pair of interceptions. He also loses 45 DYAR due to opponent adjustments.
26.	Colt McCoy	ARI	13/21	78	0	1	2	-30	-29	-2	DEN
McCoy gains 36 DYAR due to opponent adjustments despite leaving the game due to injury shortly after halftime. He had a terrible day on throws down the middle, going 3-of-7 for 20 yards with a 12-yard DPI and an interception.
27.	Baker Mayfield	LAR	12/21	111	1	1	5	-31	-30	-1	GB
28.	Matt Ryan	IND	19/33	182	1	0	3	-44	-34	-10	MIN
Ryan may not have been the league’s worst passer in the second half, but he was the worst passer in the fourth quarter and overtime, going 7-of-12 for 46 yards with two sacks and a fumble.
29.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	15/22	165	0	1	4	-45	-48	3	LAC
Tannehill was the week’s worst passer from the shotgun, but he was tremendous from under center. Each of his four passes from under center was completed for at least 16 yards and a first down, gaining a total of 87 yards.
30.	Brett Rypien	DEN	21/26	197	1	1	7	-67	-67	0	ARI
Rypien was the worst passer this week on deep balls (1-of-3 for 19 yards with an interception) and from out of a no-huddle (1-of-3 for 16 yards with an interception and a sack-fumble).
31.	Trace McSorley	ARI	8/15	95	0	2	1	-77	-77	0	DEN
McSorley came into the game with Arizona leading 6-3 in the third quarter. His first pass was completed for a first down, but his next first down came with Arizona trailing 24-9 in the fourth. In between, he went 2-of-7 for 13 yards with a sack, an intentional grounding, and an interception.
32.	Tyler Huntley	BAL	17/30	138	0	1	3	-109	-83	-27	CLE
Huntley had three dropbacks in the red zone: a 5-yard completion on second-and-7, a sack, and an interception. He was the week’s worst passer after halftime, going 8-of-15 for 71 yards with three sacks, an interception, and a fumble.
33.	Mac Jones	NE	13/31	112	0	0	0	-114	-109	-5	LV
Jones had a league-worst 25% success rate, and this was against the Raiders—he loses a league-high 53 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the week’s worst passer on throws to his left (5-of-14 for only 9 yards, plus a 15-yard DPI), but he balanced that out by also being the worst passer on throws to his right (4-of-11 for 19 yards). His last 19 passes to the outside produced five completions for only 15 yards and exactly zero first downs. Oh, and he was also the worst passer on throws to running backs (5-of-6 for 8 yards).

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	17	139	1	1/1	-3	0	61	67	-6	NO
Each of Allgeier’s 17 runs gained at least 1 yard and eight of them gained first downs, including gains of 11, 15, and 43 yards. He was nearly perfect in short yardage, picking up first downs on six of his seven carries with 4 yards or less to for a first down. He also had one catch, but it sucked.
2.	Jerick McKinnon	KC	10	52	1	8/8	70	1	47	10	37	HOU
McKinnon only ran for two first downs, but one of them was a 26-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime, and he was only stuffed one time. Four of his receptions picked up first downs, including a 20-yard touchdown and a game of 21.
3.	David Montgomery	CHI	12	53	1	3/3	38	1	46	13	34	PHI
Though Montgomery’s longest run gained just 7 yards and he only had two first downs, each of his 12 carries gained at least 2 yards. His three catches: a 7-yard gain on first-and-10, a 21-yard gain on second-and-8, and a 10-yard touchdown on third-and-5.
4.	AJ Dillon	GB	11	36	2	3/3	35	0	46	35	11	LAR
5.	Saquon Barkley	NYG	18	87	1	5/8	33	0	45	43	2	WAS
The Commanders only stuffed Barkley once while allowing him to run for nine first downs, including three runs of double-digit yardage. He added two more first downs as a receiver, though his longest catch gained only 8 yards.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	17	139	1	1/1	-3	0	61	67	-6	NO
2.	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	19	172	1	2/3	-4	0	43	64	-21	LV
Each of Stevenson’s 19 carries gained at least 1 yard. He ran for seven first downs with five gains of double-digit yardage, the longest a 34-yard touchdown. And, for the record, he gets 12 DYAR for his last carry, a 23-yard gain on third-and-10. Jakobi Meyers then gets -29 DYAR for taking a pitch from Stevenson, running 8 yards backwards, and fumbling the ball on his doomed lateral attempt to Mac Jones. Officially, the NFL “credits” Meyers with -20 rushing yards on the play—the distance between the line where Stevenson pitched the ball and where Chandler Jones recovered it.
3.	Saquon Barkley	NYG	18	87	1	5/8	33	0	45	43	2	WAS
4.	Austin Ekeler	LAC	12	58	1	2/3	12	0	39	43	-4	TEN
Ekeler gains 17 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He ran for five first downs against Tennessee, the longest a gain of 12, while being stuffed just once.
5.	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	13	125	0	1/1	3	0	35	37	-2	CLE
Dobbins loses 12 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Browns stuffed him only one time while allowing him to run for five first downs, including gains of 12, 16, 25, and 37 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush Yds

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yds

Rec TD

Total DYAR

Rush DYAR

Rec DYAR

Opp

1.

D’Onta Foreman

CAR

10

9

0

0/0

0

0

-36

-36

0

PIT

Foreman gains 10 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. None of his 10 carries gained more than 5 yards or picked up a first down. Half of them went for no gain or a loss, including a 2-yard loss and fumble on second-and-goal from the 2.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush Yds

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yds

Rec TD

Total DYAR

Rush DYAR

Rec DYAR

Opp

1.

D’Onta Foreman

CAR

10

9

0

0/0

0

0

-36

-36

0

PIT

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Zay Jones	JAX	6	8	109	18.2	3	66	DAL
Five of Jones’ catches picked up first downs, including touchdowns of 3, 5, and 59 yards. The other was a 9-yard gain on first-and-10.
2.	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	7	7	126	18.0	0	62	JAX
Lamb’s totals include -3 rushing DYAR for his one carry for 1 yard. Five of his seven catches picked up first downs, the longest a gain of 39, and he added a sixth first down on a 17-yard DPI.
3.	K.J. Osborn	MIN	10	16	157	15.7	1	52	IND
Wow, that’s a lot of targets. And a lot of incomplete passes to rank this high on the table. But eight of his 10 catches produced first downs, the longest a 63-yard gain on second-and-12, and he added a ninth first down on a 13-yard DPI.
4.	Jahan Dotson	WAS	4	6	105	26.2	1	48	NYG
Each of Dotson’s four catches produced a first down, including a 19-yard touchdown and a 61-yard gain in the fourth quarter.
5.	DJ Moore	CAR	5	6	73	14.6	1	41	PIT
All five of Moore’s receptions produced first downs. Three of them were third-down conversions, including a 5-yard touchdown, a 14-yard gain on third-and-11, and a 26-yard gain on third-and-7.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Nelson Agholor	NE	1	6	3	3.0	0	-51	LV
Lost in all the chaos and insanity of New England’s loss to Las Vegas is that Nelson Agholor might have had the worst game of any wide receiver this season. Right now he’s neck-and-neck with the game Diontae Johnson of the Pittsburgh Steelers had against Cincinnati in Week 1, but the difference is only a few decimal points and could easily change based on opponent adjustments in the next three weeks.But Agholor’s only catch went for 3 yards on second-and-10, and even that was caught 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage with 5 yards after the catch. He also had incomplete targets on third-and-goal from the 1 and on second-and-6. And yes, one of those targets very nearly resulted in a 32-yard catch, but it was reversed to an incompletion after replay review.