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Marquise Goodwin, Fantasy Playoff Hero?

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Marquise Goodwin, Fantasy Playoff Hero?
Tom Strachan
20 Dec 2022, 09:40am

Seattle Seahawks WR Marquise Goodwin

Week 15 was a heartbreaker for many fantasy managers as they felt the force of Zay Jones, K.J. Osborn and Jerick McKinnon. For those who survived to progress to the next round of the playoffs, there’s much to take away from an action-packed week.

Arizona Cardinals

Marquise Brown and Trace McSorley were teammates in Baltimore for two seasons before they both found their way to Arizona and into the current situation they’re in. Week 15 was poor for Brown with four catches for 19 yards, but the Cardinals won’t face the Broncos’ tough passing defense every week and Brown could have a bounceback in Week 16 against the Bucs passing defense that ranks 30th over the last three weeks. Trey McBride almost broke double digits for the first time, but it wasn’t to be, and it’s hard to imagine he’s worth adding over anyone currently on your roster if the rest of the Cardinals pass-catchers are healthy.

Atlanta Falcons

Desmond Ridder made his NFL debut but didn’t do anything to make viewers think that he should have been selected higher than the 74th pick where he was taken. Ridder completed 50% of his 26 passes for 97 scoreless yards, adding 38 yards on the ground. Tyler Allgeier set a career-high in touches (18) and turned them into an impressive 140 total yards. In last week’s DFS column, I mentioned that Ridder’s involvement might help Drake London to see more targets, and that came to fruition with London having his most receptions since Week 2. The Falcons travel to Baltimore on Christmas Eve, and it’s more likely London has success against their defense than the running game does, with Baltimore ranked first against the rush over the last four games.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were held to 16 or fewer points for the third straight game in what has become their least productive stretch since 2000. Greg Roman had J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards rushing for a combined 8.8 yards per carry, but still elected to have Tyler Huntley throw the ball 30 times, and Huntley just isn’t able to work the passing game like that, particularly when the Ravens have such limited pass-catching options. James Proche was twice targeted on must-have plays, which is an interesting choice given he has two catches since Week 9. Most Ravens fans would have taken a 2-1 record in games without Lamar Jackson, with matchups against two divisional rivals. But even if Jackson returns on Christmas Eve against the Falcons, Mark Andrews in particular needs to become very productive, very quickly if the Ravens are going to have any chance down the stretch. Amongst 42 tight ends with 25 passes or more, Andrews is 36th in catch rate.

Buffalo Bills

As mentioned in last week’s column, the Dolphins struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks, and Josh Allen made them pay with 10 carries for 77 yards as he put up a 35.9-point day in fantasy leagues. Allen wasn’t overly efficient with the ball, completing 62% of his passes, but that doesn’t really matter when you’re throwing four passing touchdowns. This was the third time he has thrown for four touchdowns this season, which ties him with Patrick Mahomes for most four-plus-touchdown games this year.

Carolina Panthers

D.J. Moore’s 5-yard touchdown catch from Sam Darnold against the Steelers gave him a career-high five scores for the season. Moore has been a fantastic receiver over his career, but poor quarterback play and average schemes have held back his potential somewhat. Five touchdowns is hardly an incredible amount, but it keeps a candle burning for the hope that if Moore gets a better quarterback, he can be a true WR1 in fantasy football. D’Onta Foreman had 10 attempts for 9 yards as the Panthers completely struggled to run the ball, something they have done well in recent weeks, and with them facing the Lions next week it might be another bad week for the Panthers running backs as the Lions have now not allowed an opposing running back to score over 15 points in eight games and rank third against the run in the last four games.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields became the third quarterback in league history to rush for 1,000 yards with his 95 on Sunday. The Bears’ season is over for all intents and purposes, but if Fields does play the last three games, he has an excellent opportunity to break Lamar Jackson’s all-time quarterback record of 1,206 rushing yards. Aside from Fields, there is little to be interested in amongst the Bears’ skill players. Cole Kmet finished as a top-two tight end in Weeks 9 and 10, but since then has finished as TE17, TE24, TE6, and TE22. David Montgomery had his biggest fantasy day of the season with 24.1 PPR poipoints,t Khalil Herbert is coming off IR soon and will likely subdue any value Montgomery had.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are rolling, and even after faltering early against Tampa Bay, they managed to turn it around. Perhaps it was down to the Bucs collapsing as much as anything else, but all that matters to the Bengals is that they’re back atop the AFC North. Joe Mixon is still the clear lead back, but for the second week in a row he played less than 65% of the snaps, a number he was consistently over earlier on in the year. Ja’Marr Chase continues to look worthy of a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, seeing 13 targets on Sunday, and has had double-digit targets in all but three games this year. Chase’s 11.0 targets per game is second only to Justin Jefferson’s 11.3. The Week 17 matchup in Buffalo has long been circled by best-ball drafters, and with the way the Bills passing defense is playing, it could be explosive. The Bills rank 25th against WR1s, with it being their clear weak spot.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson’s presence in the Browns starting lineup hasn’t produced any of the immediate results some thought it might yield, and almost the entire offense has taken a step back, ranking 25th over the last three games. Amari Cooper has seen his targets per game drop from 8.4 to 7.3, and his yards per route run have dropped from 2.2 to 1.5. Nick Chubb has gone from averaging 5.2 yards per carry to 3.9, and his PPR points per game have dropped from 18.9 to 8.8 despite a similar workload. This offense is going to be bumpy for the rest of the year and the only constant seems to be Donovan Peoples-Jones picking up double-digit fantasy performances, with just one single-digit game in his last nine.

Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb is clearly a talented wide receiver who has slate-breaking potential, but it’s not often we have seen it this year. Lamb has one top-six performance on the year but has finished outside the top 30 wide receivers six times, which is more than the five times he has finished as a top-12 receiver. Over the last three games, Lamb has averaged 6.7 targets per game, which ranks 38th amongst receivers, less than Tutu Atwell and the same as Demarcus Robinson. Lamb is a good receiver and ranks fifth in effective yards, but he needs this offense to pass more often for his ADP to pay off. Currently, Dak Prescott is 23rd in pass attempts per game with 31.2.

Denver Broncos

There isn’t much to talk about in Denver right now, particularly with Brett Rypien as the quarterback, but the running game has been steadily productive with both Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack having flashes in recent weeks. It leads to a painful reminder of what could have been if Javonte Williams had stayed healthy. Since Melvin Gordon was cut at the end of Week 11, no Broncos running backs have fumbled the ball.

Detroit Lions

The Lions have won six of their last seven games, which is a sentence not many people expected to say this year, and they are fully deserving of plaudits. Jared Goff showed his limitations against a tough defense, and while he has played very well recently, the Lions need to ask themselves if those limitations are enough to make them move on this offseason. Jamaal Williams has now had back-to-back games with less than 3.4 PPR points. When Williams isn’t getting into the end zone, he has virtually no value for fantasy teams. Fortunately, the Lions play the Panthers and Bears in the next two weeks, who both allowed three rushing touchdowns this weekend.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have improved in recent weeks and Monday night was the first time Aaron Rodgers had both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson playing for a full game. Doubs was a perfect five catches on five targets for 55 yards and Watson had four catches for 46 yards and a long pass interference penalty. Allen Lazard, who was thought of by some as the defacto WR1 this season, had a single catch for seven yards. This season has been a far cry from success for the Packers but you can start to see how they might be able to make some noise next year if Aaron Rodgers elects to stay in Green Bay. AJ Dillon has been anonymous for most of the season but now has four touchdowns in his last three games and if he avoids the concussion protocol that kept him out of the end of the game, he can be considered a starter in deep leagues, and a tournament-worthy dart throw for DFS.

Houston Texans

The Texans have now held the Cowboys and Chiefs in check for the vast majority of their last two games, and despite not having Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, or Dameon Pierce, they were able to stay competitive with Davis Mills looking better than might have been expected. Royce Freeman led the backfield in Pierce’s absence with 11 carries to Dare Ogunbowale’s eight and was more productive with his carries, totaling 51 yards compared to Ogunbowale’s 14. In deep leagues Freeman can be picked up on waivers and is a fringe starter for a matchup against the Titans rush defense that has faltered in recent weeks, dropping to 19th in DVOA over the last four games.

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor’s season seems to be over with the running back picking up a high-ankle sprain early in the loss to the Vikings. It’s a reminder that injuries are random, and when choosing the first overall pick in a draft, ceiling outcome should outweigh all else. When healthy this year, Taylor hasn’t been able to compete with Christian McCaffrey’s ceiling, and McCaffrey hasn’t missed a single game. In early 2023 best-ball drafts on Underdog, Taylor is going at the end of the first round. Whether he climbs earlier than that will depend on this offense around him improving. With Taylor out, Zack Moss out-carried Deon Jackson 24 to 13 and forced four missed tackles. If you’re looking to pick one of these two up, Moss looks like the slightly better option. Parris Campbell had a three-game stretch with Matt Ryan where he was a top-12 wide receiver, but in the four games following has averaged 6.7 PPR points and is droppable in redraft formats.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are white-hot at the right time of the season and Trevor Lawrence is the QB4 since the start of Week 10, with the passing offense ranking fifth in that period. Zay Jones has been one of the steals of fantasy drafts this year, now ranked as the WR19 in PPR formats, and has had more top-five finishes than Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel, to name but a few. Over the last five weeks, Jones averages a 26.6% target share and until we see otherwise he’s a reliable starter for fantasy purposes and can be acquired in dynasty leagues for around the price of an early 2023 third-round pick. Lost amongst the Evan Engram and Zay Jones week-winning performances has been Christian Kirk, who has averaged the 15th most receptions per game in the last six and is the WR17 in that period. Travis Etienne, however, has fallen off a cliff since the Week 11 bye, averaging 6.0 PPR points per game being outscored by backup running back JaMycal Hasty.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs made life hard for themselves, waiting until overtime to finally put the Texans to bed in a game where Jerick McKinnon again put up big fantasy numbers. In last week’s column, we talked about McKinnon being the most trusted back in Kansas City, and he should be a priority for fantasy playoff tournaments. Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster were both flawless in catching their 10 targets each, but outside of them and the running backs, there is nobody reliable enough for managed rosters.

Las Vegas Raiders

It’s unusual for the Raiders to be on the right end of an embarrassing play, but nevertheless, the Raiders survived Sunday and live to see another day. Chandler Jones’ 48-yard return for a touchdown was the longest play of the day for the Raiders, and he finished with a higher receiving line than all but Keelan Cole. Over the last three games, Derek Carr has managed to complete only 56% of his pass attempts, which ranks second-worst amongst starters of all three games, and he’s doing very little to convince the team he is better than whatever is in the mystery box. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow returned to the lineup, and whilst neither played more than 50% of the snaps, they both saw three targets and are likely to see an increased workload in Week 16 against the Steelers.

Los Angeles Chargers

Another team on the right end of a late win for a change was the Chargers, who are putting together enough of a late-season surge to start thinking about January football. Over the last three games, Mike Williams has played, he’s averaging 17 yards per reception, and he looks to be one of the best deep threats in the league. In Week 16 the Chargers face a Colts defense that has allowed the ninth-best catch rate in the league and just allowed the Vikings to put up 460 receiving yards on them.

Los Angeles Rams

This was the Baker Mayfield we’re more familiar with, taking sacks and rolling out into pressure before confidently throwing a pick. Mayfield struggled to get anything going and it’s unlikely he has a good day next week against the Broncos number-one-rated passing defense in DVOA. Cam Akers continues his resurgence with 83% of the running back opportunities and whilst he doesn’t look incredible, he’s the only good part of this offense right now and can be started if necessary.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are running out of steam at a time in the season when they should be heating up, having now lost three games in a row after winning five in a row. Tua Tagovailoa’s 49.5% completion rate over the last three games is the worst of all quarterbacks to play all of those games. Whilst the offense’s troubles aren’t solely on Tagovailoa, his completion rate when throwing from a clean pocket was 74% over the first 10 weeks but has now dropped to 53% over the Dolphins games since their bye. In last week’s column, I mentioned that Raheem Mostert was a must-start despite the tough matchup, and he returned great value with 16.6 PPR points. The Dolphins in Week 16 play the Packers, who ranked 32nd in rushing defense DVOA going into Monday night. If Jeff Wilson is ruled out, Mostert becomes a top-12 option for Week 16.

Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins threw for a career-high 460 passing yards in the dramatic comeback against the Colts with both K.J. Osborn and Justin Jefferson seeing 16 targets, which both of them turned into 100-plus-yard games. Whilst Jefferson’s incredible season has been deservedly written about extensively, Osborn has had a quiet but steady season with a few good performances. There’s a chance the Vikings choose to move on from Adam Thielen this offseason, and if that happened, Osborn could potentially step into a bigger target share. Right now Osborn’s value in dynasty leagues is between a Round 3 and a Round 4 pick, which seems like an interesting gamble to make on a player who has flashed some ability.

New England Patriots

The hysterical finish to New England’s defeat to the Raiders is somewhat masking two factors from the game that deserve a little attention. Firstly, the good: Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 172 yards, which is the ninth-most ever by a Patriots running back. Stevenson’s 74 targets are the third-highest amongst running backs and he’s now the RB8 this season and a true league-winner. The bad, however, is that Mac Jones had 112 yards on 31 passing attempts, which is 3.6 yards per attempt and the lowest amongst all starters this weekend, even behind the likes of Colt McCoy, Desmond Ridder, and Tyler Huntley. Against a Raiders passing defense that ranked 26th over the previous four games, this is a new low for this Patriots team. Outside of Stevenson, there is not a single player on the Patriots roster who is fantasy-worthy right now.

New Orleans Saints

Over the last four games, Chris Olave has seen his snaps drop down to 58.6% from his previous season average of 70.6%. Whether the Saints are limiting his workload or maybe Olave is banged up, we don’t know. What we do know is that Rashid Shaheed has led the Saints wide receivers in snaps and had a 17.3% target share over the last two games. Shaheed has been a top-36 wide receiver for two weeks running and is worth rostering in deep dynasty leagues.

New York Giants

In recent weeks, Saquon Barkley has looked tired and beaten up, but against the Commanders, we saw a much fresher-looking Barkley, who was able to rush for 87 yards, which was by far his most since Week 10. Barkley also saw a season-high in targets with eight. The Giants face the Vikings and Colts in the next two weeks and both teams struggle against running backs as receivers, ranking 26th and 28th respectively. Saquon Barkley’s rejuvenation is coming at a vital time.

New York Jets

The one or two moments where Zach Wilson flashed ability weren’t enough to make up for the atrocious mistakes he made against the Lions. Garrett Wilson continues to succeed despite the quarterback situation around him and even though it won’t feel great, Wilson can be played this week against Jacksonville, which ranks 28th against WR1s. Elijah Moore’s usage was positive, but again like last week when Corey Davis left the game injured, this week it was Denzel Mims who departed, and it’s hard to know if the Jets would have kept Moore on the field as much in other circumstances.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts seems set to take a week off against the Cowboys and in his place will likely be Gardner Minshew, who in two games last season threw the ball 58 times for 39 completions and 428 yards. Quez Watkins played in both games and totaled 10 targets for eight catches and 144 yards and a touchdown. If the Eagles elect to rest some of their other studs or ease off them a little, Watkins might make for an interesting dart throw.

Pittsburgh Steelers

On Sunday morning, several reports suggested that Mitch Trubisky might be on a short leash against the Panthers and it was possible we’d see Mason Rudolph if Trubisky faltered. Trubisky replied with the third-highest completion percentage of the weekend and didn’t turn the ball over as the Steelers secured their sixth win of the season. Najee Harris is running better in recent weeks but continues to lose work to Jaylen Warren, who had Pittsburgh’s sole running back target this week and also took 11 carries. The Steelers have the seventh-best rush offense in DVOA over the last four games, and with a soft matchup against the Raiders in Week 16, both can be considered starters.

San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle’s biggest games this year have all come against teams who struggle to defend tight ends, and it’s a little hard to get too excited about him when he can disappear frequently, but his connection with Brock Purdy seems solid. Whilst Week 16 pits Kittle against Washington’s third-best defense against the position, after that Kittle will play the Raiders and Cardinals, who both struggle against tight ends in fantasy points allowed.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks season is crumbling around them with Tyler Lockett facing an uphill battle to play again this year after picking up a hand injury that required surgery. Marquise Goodwin is likely the man to benefit from any missed games for Lockett, and Goodwin has played well in spells this season. The Seahawks face a potential shootout in Kansas City, whose defense ranks 23rd against the pass over the last four games. Goodwin should be rostered in all formats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It says a lot about Mike Evans’ season that he had his most productive fantasy performance in the last six weeks and it still only resulted in 13.3 PPR points. Nevertheless, Evans’ first game over 60 yards in seven weeks is not to be sniffed at, and the Bucs were clearly making an effort to keep Evans involved. Russell Gage led the team in targets with 12 and scored two touchdowns, which takes his total for the season to four, and he now leads the team in receiving touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans

A few weeks ago it looked like Derrick Henry was slowing down and Father Time might be catching up with him for good, but on Sunday Henry had 95% of Tennessee’s running back carries and has had 16 targets in his last four games. Henry ranks fourth in effective yards and has been quietly consistent this year with eight top-seven finishes. He now faces a rematch with the Texans, whom he ripped apart in Week 8 with 228 total yards and two touchdowns. Henry has totaled over 200 rushing yards in his last four meetings with the Texans and nothing feels as certain in Week 16 as another big day for Henry.

Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson went over 100 yards for the first time in his career as the Commanders lost to the Giants. In the two games Dotson played against the Giants on either side of the Commanders’ bye week, he combined for 36.9 PPR points, and if for any reason he’s on your waivers he should be rostered now—even if it’s not worth playing him in Week 16 against the 49ers defense who ranks first against the pass over the last four weeks.

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