Until Mike McCarthy’s gone, expectations for the Cowboys’ run game shouldn’t be high

For over a decade in Green Bay, Mike McCarthy’s rush offenses were rarely among the top-half of the NFL.

The Cowboys’ struggles with their rushing offense in 2023 have been a major offseason talking point. But while the drop in run-game productivity and efficiency was bothersome based on Dallas’ high standards, it was actually not a bad year for a Mike McCarthy offense. Given his long history in Green Bay, we may have to accept a less-potent rushing attack for as long as he remains in Dallas.

Dallas dropped to 14th in total rushing offense last season. This felt like a core meltdown for a team that has enjoyed top 10 status in rushing ever since Jason Garrett rebuilt the offensive line behind Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin. Indeed, outside of the disastrous 2020 season and last year, the Cowboys have been top 10 in rushing yards per game every season since 2014.

Whether it was Scott Linehan or Kellen Moore calling the plays or DeMarco Murray, Ezekiel Elliott, or even a washed-up Darren McFadden doing most of the carrying, Dallas has maintained an identity with its ground game. That’s part of why last year’s lackluster running from Tony Pollard was hard to swallow; we’re just used to so much more. But with last year also being the first for an offense run by McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer, perhaps we should cut Pollard a little more slack.

From 2006-2017, McCarthy’s 12 full seasons with the Packers, Green Bay was almost always a bottom-half offense with its run game. They ranked 20th or worse in six of those seasons, averaging just 110.1 yards over the full 12-year run. And while some of that was due to the deserved focus on Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack, rushing also proved inefficient at just 4.2 yards per carry.

The Packers’ best rushing season under McCarthy was 2013. They ranked seventh overall and averaged 133.5 with a 4.7 average on carries. That was a year when Rodgers missed seven games to injury and Green Bay leaned heavily on Eddie Lacy. Once he realized what he had in Lacy, McCarthy made him a bigger part of the offense the next two years and the Packers finished 11th and 12th in rushing. But soon, once Lacy was used up, Green Bay reverted back to its pass-focused ways.

There’s no denying that the 2023 Cowboys weren’t good at rushing the ball, but we’ve tended to lay blame at the feet of the offensive line and Pollard being miscast as a lead back. There’s truth to some of it, but Dallas still had three All-Pro offensive linemen and capable starters in Tyler Biadasz and Terence Steele. And while Pollard probably is a better Robin than Batman, he also didn’t get to show his stuff in the same Kellen Moore offense he’d known since entering the league.

While Dak Prescott isn’t, hasn’t been, or will ever be on the level of prime Aaron Rodgers, he’s still going to be featured heavily in a McCarthy offense. Between his proven merit and the tenants of a West Coast offense, Prescott is going to be the focal point now more than ever. This means more passes that would’ve been rushes under previous regimes, which will limit some of the general per-game productivity. And when runners are getting a higher percentage of their carries in short-yardage situations, that’s going to bring down the per-carry numbers.

Given this, stories like the Cowboys’ lack of interest in free agents like Derrick Henry and Zack Moss, at least at certain salaries, make more sense. Dallas isn’t trying to get back to the Linehan-Moore rushing dominance because that’s never been a feature in a McCarthy offense. In retrospect, the real surprise should be that they even bothered to franchise Pollard in 2023.

Dallas’ issues last year may have had less to do with who Tony Pollard was and more who Mike McCarthy is. And given that, it’s probably best that the Cowboys not waste their limited resources on an expensive free agent back. It should also push them away from RB in the first round, if they’re even considering it, as you don’t want a guy with capped potential even at the 24th pick. Until McCarthy’s gone, they should limit their run-game investments as the guy running the offense has proven to offer poor returns.