American Football

SB Nation Mock Draft 2024: Jaguars nab Terrion Arnold

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Terrion Arnold, YOU are a Jacksonville Jaguar.

The board fell perfectly for the Jaguars in SB Nation’s 2024 site-by-site mock draft. Six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks (!) which opened the door for Jacksonville to take the first cornerback off the board with its original 17th overall selection.

Here’s how the first half of the first round shook out (*asterisks denote a traded pick).

  1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams
  2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye
  3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels
  4. Minnesota Vikings* – QB J.J. McCarthy
  5. Arizona Cardinals* – WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
  6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze
  7. Tennessee Titans – WR Malik Nabers
  8. Los Angeles Rams* – OT Joe Alt
  9. Las Vegas Raiders* – QB Michael Penix Jr.
  10. New York Jets – OT Taliese Fuaga
  11. Los Angeles Chargers* – OT J.C. Latham
  12. Denver Broncos – QB Bo Nix
  13. Chicago Bears* – EDGE Dallas Turner
  14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu
  15. Indianapolis Colts – TE Brock Bowers
  16. Seattle Seahawks – DT Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton

And here were the best players available (with consensus rankings).

  • WR: Brian Thomas Jr. (22), Adonai Mitchell (33), Xavier Worthy (34)
  • OL: Olumuyiwa Fashanu (11), Graham Barton (23), Amarius Mims (25), Tyler Guyton (30)
  • DB: Terrion Arnold (13), Quinyon Mitchell (14), Nate Wiggins (24), Cooper DeJean (26)
  • DL: Jared Verse (15), Laiatu Latu (17), Byron Murphy II (21), Darius Robinson (25)

I was prepared to trade up for a wide receiver if one of “the big three” fell to the double-digits. Realistically, Jacksonville would need to move to the eighth pick for a chance at Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze (Marvin Harrison Jr. is a top-five lock), but neither was even available at eight in this mock. Music City Miracles had to make it all about themselves by selecting Nabers over the top offensive lineman.

Things officially got weird when Turf Show Times traded up from 19th overall to draft Joe Alt, who was expected to be taken the pick prior. Then Silver & Black Pride took Michael Penix Jr. at nine and Mile High Report grabbed Bo Nix at 12, despite the common assumption that four passers will be selected in the top half of Round 1.

With six quarterbacks taken in the first dozen picks, I knew that meant a run on offensive linemen was coming. I was hoping Taliese Fuaga or Troy Fautanu might fall to 17th overall: Both prospects are violent tone-setters and likely to be best as guards in the NFL, though they could still play tackle if asked. They also met with the Jaguars during the pre-draft process.

But with Alt, Fuaga and Fautanu — plus Dallas Turner and Johnny Newton — all off the board, there wasn’t a trench player available at 17 who I loved. Laiatu Latu was my favorite lineman remaining but he has several red flags (medicals, age, length), plus, Josh Allen is in town for five more years.

I suspect most readers would’ve liked to see Brian Thomas Jr. as the pick here. I’ll never be opposed to giving Trevor Lawrence more help, but I also believe better value at wideout can be found on Day 2. Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell are more of fringe first-round prospects in my eyes.

Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke has spoken several times about his preferred strategy of drafting the best player available and favoring value over needs. But he also hasn’t been shy about Jacksonville’s biggest roster hole this offseason.

“We’ve got to add to that [cornerback] group,” Baalke said at the NFL Combine in February. “I think Coach Nielsen spoke on it, Coach Pederson probably spoke on it. Now, I’m speaking on it. It’s a group we need to address.”

Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said at his introductory press conference in January, “If the coverage has holes in it or gives an easy throw, it doesn’t matter who we’ve got coming off the edge. We’ve got a couple of good edge guys here.”

Thus hinting that there aren’t a couple of good coverage guys here (yet).

Jacksonville released Darious Williams and replaced him with Ronald Darby in free agency, but the veteran swap still leaves 2023 rookie Christian Braswell as the only Jaguars corner under contract through 2025.

That brings us to Terrion Arnold.

The Crimson Tide product spent three seasons at Alabama. After redshirting his first season, Arnold earned Freshman All-SEC honors in 2022 with 1 interception, 9 pass deflections, 45 tackles and 1 tackle for loss in 11 games/7 starts.

Arnold then led the SEC with 5 interceptions and 17 pass deflections along with 63 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble to receive First-Team All-SEC and First-Team All-American recognition in 2023.

The 21-year-old prospect leads all corners in his draft class with a Production Score of 90, per Next Gen Stats, though his 70 Athleticism Score ranks 18th. Arnold’s 4.5-second 40-yard dash was the 19th-best time out of 25 corners who ran at the Combine.

Ideally, Arnold would possess freakish physical traits to make up for his ordinary frame, but that isn’t the case. Still, Arnold has enough athleticism — and more than enough competitiveness and ball production — to be worth taking in the middle of the first round.

Barring any Thomas Jr. truthers, Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell might be the prospect some fans might want to see here most over Arnold. I don’t have a strong stance about which cornerback is a better NFL prospect, but I am convinced that Arnold is a better fit for Nielsen’s scheme.

Nielsen’s Atlanta Falcons defense led the league last year in rate of press coverage against wide alignments, per Next Gen Stats. Nielsen likes his corners to challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage on most snaps. It makes sense given his experience under Dennis Allen, who’s known for aggressive Cover 2-man coverages in New Orleans.

Mitchell commonly played off coverage during his four years in the Mid-Atlantic Conference (MAC). In other words, he’s used to aligning several yards away from opposing wideouts rather than in their faces. He had 20 press coverage snaps in 2023 compared to 161 for Arnold, per PFF’s draft guide. The latter is lauded for his press abilities in any scouting report you can find.

It’s not out of the question for Mitchell to develop into a full-time press-man cornerback over time, but he’ll already face an adjusting period due to being a non-Power 5 conference product.

Mitchell also played 55 slot snaps last year compared to 205 for Arnold. Again, it’s not that Mitchell can’t do it one day, but the Jaguars will want someone who can do it immediately. Baalke tends to want instant starters in the first round. And with Darby and Tyson Campbell expected to start at outside cornerback in Week 1 of 2024, the slot is where a rookie could find playing time right away.

Free agent signing Darnell Savage has been rumored to be Jacksonville’s new nickel corner, but he might end up in a role similar to Antonio Johnson’s late last season as an early-down run-stopper.

“Due to some size and strength limitations, [Arnold] may struggle some on the outside early, but he has the skill set to be given the opportunity,” Nathan Cooper wrote in his scouting report for The 33rd Team. “In the meantime, he should be an asset in the slot, somewhere that could become his best position. On third downs, allowing him to work out of the slot will use his strengths early on. With his speed, toughness and willingness in the run game, he should be a core special teamer on most units.”

In summary, Arnold is the best first round fit for Jacksonville. He can press opposing receivers at the line of scrimmage and play right away out of the slot, two attributes that will excite Jaguars brass. They’ll also appreciate his competitiveness, which shows up in his ball production and run support, as well as his awareness, communication, and leadership. The team could very well pick a higher-rated prospect at a different position before circling back to cornerback in Round 2 — but why leave the roster hole linger, especially when the rest of the division is engaged in an arms race for offensive weaponry?

Here’s where Arnold ranks among all players in the draft according to industry experts. Jeremiah and Brugler have both compared him to Jaylon Johnson.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Mitchell (-190 odds) is favored to be the first cornerback selected. Arnold (+225) isn’t too far behind, but then the gap widens between Cooper DeJean (+550), Nate Wiggins (+2000) and Kool-Aid Mckinstry (+5000). I think McKinstry, Terrion’s Alabama teammate, has almost as good of a chance to become a Jaguar next Thursday. He’s arguably the best press-man corner in the class.

Cornerback (-185) is expected to be Jacksonville’s first pick, followed by wide receiver (+200), offensive lineman (+650) and defensive line/edge (+1000). I think O-line is more likely than receiver, as I outlined here.

Jags fans, how do you feel about our pick? Is there a different player on the board you would’ve drafted instead? Vote below and let us know your full thoughts in the comments!

We asked two weeks ago who you would draft at 17th overall. We’ll ask again before the draft, but today we want to know: Who do you expect the team to select in the first round?

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