If not this year, Rams might have a franchise tag candidate in 2025

Could Ernest Jones be the first Rams player to get a franchise tag in 7 years?

NFL teams have the next two weeks to apply the franchise tag and there’s good reason to think that the L.A. Rams will once again pass on the opportunity. Right guard Kevin Dotson is the only suspect, but paying $19 million for one season of an interior offensive lineman seems unlikely. So I decided to look ahead and what I found is that the Rams do have a potential top-5 player at his position hitting free agency for the first time in 2025, when he’ll be 25.

Could the Rams give Ernest Jones the franchise tag in 2025? Well, maybe and maybe not. There is a reason to do and it a potentially unfair complication with tagging Jones.

Jones is arguably the best off-ball linebacker pick of Les Snead’s career with the only competition I can think of being Alec Ogletree in 2013. So it’s been a long time, to say the least.

Jones had 145 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 6 PD, 6 QB hits, and 14 TFL in 2023 despite only playing in 15 games. It a major development year for Jones after two seasons of not quite being a full full-time player. If Jones takes another step forward in 2024, he could arguably be a top-5 inside linebacker and an All-Pro candidate.

We don’t see Ernest Jones mentioned next to Fred Warner, Roquan Smith, or Demario Davis, but what about Patrick Queen or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah? Could Jones be on the cusp of the top of the second tier? He was actually an upgrade to the Bobby Wagner that the Rams had in 2022, despite Wagner getting awards for name recognition and tackle totals.

The L.A. Rams probably don’t want to lose Ernest Jones and have to start over at inside linebacker again in 2025, so what if they can’t come to a long-term agreement with him between now and free agency? There might be a back-and-forth with his agent, as Jones’ side may feel he’s a top-3 ILB and the Rams might say, “No, you’re not Roquan Smith.” That’s where a tag could buy them time.

But the problem is that the linebacker tag is not actually made for off-ball linebackers: It includes all linebackers, including edge rushers. That’s why the franchise tag for linebackers in 2024 is the second-highest of any position other than QB: $22.75 million for one season.

Would the Rams be willing to pay $23 million to keep Ernest Jones for one season, if they can’t come to a contract agreement?

The other option would be the transition tag, which is $18.7 million but doesn’t guarantee that Jones will stay.

My estimate for an Ernest Jones contract extension would be somewhere in the range of Matt Milano to Tremaine Edmunds: Milano makes $14 million per year and Edmunds makes $18 million. The problem is that Jones might be better than Edmunds, but the Bears, in their infinite wisdom of constructing the worst roster and needing to overpay players to come to Chicago, overpaid him. Tremaine Edmunds almost makes as much as Fred Warner and he got way more guaranteed.

Jones’ agent may tell him that there are teams out there like the Bears who could be willing to overpay him, which drives up the price for L.A. in any extension negotiations.

I think a reasonable deal for Ernest Jones at his current value would be a three-year, $45 million contract with $28 million guaranteed; the same that Foyesade Oluokon got from the Jaguars. A deal like that would never lead to a team giving a player a $23 million franchise tag for one season. But if Jones bets on himself, he will play out the 2024 season in an attempt to prove that he’s as good as Roquan or Fred to get a contract closer to a five-year, $85 million deal and $40 million guaranteed.

Betting on himself means that Jones doesn’t sign an extension.

Fearing a potential injury or regression, Jones takes the offer if it is $15 million per year.

What will the two sides do? The franchise and transition tags are always there as options. The most likely outcome is that the Rams won’t use the tags in 2024 or 2025 and keep the streak going.