The Chicago Bears have drafted their quarterback of the future—for the third time in eight years. Here’s why things might be different this time around.
With their first No. 1 overall pick since 1947, the Chicago Bears have drafted their next franchise quarterback in USC’s Caleb Williams. After a collegiate career stuffed with highlight reel plays, Bears general manager Ryan Poles had enough evidence and conviction to move on from Justin Fields back in March and make Williams the draft’s first pick in April.
In Williams, the Bears hope to have the kind of rare playmaker on a rookie contract that has been the go-to formula for success in the modern NFL. The trade Chicago made last year that earned them the No. 1 overall pick in 2024 also netted them a top-tier wide receiver in D.J. Moore. This offseason, the Bears have continued to add more established skill players like veteran wideout and route-running technician Keenan Allen, as well as bringing in running back D’Andre Swift to add to an already talented backfield.
Now that Williams is surrounded by dynamic, seasoned playmakers on offense and supported by a defense that was trending in the right direction over the second-half of last season—Chicago finished 17th in team defense DVOA in 2023—the Bears seem poised to make a run at the NFC North as soon as this upcoming season.
Williams immediate impact
Rookie seasons can be a tumultuous, lesson-learning time in a young quarterback’s development, especially so if they’re drafted highly to a team that doesn’t have much talent around them (see: Young, Bryce). His top weapons were a 33-year-old Adam Thielen and the oft-injured DJ Chark, a far cry from the skill position players at Williams disposal ahead of his rookie campaign. But if Young is an example of what happens to young quarterbacks without help, C.J. Stroud, his 2023 counterpart, shows the kind of difference some infrastructure can provide to keep a young player’s head above water—and in his case, do enough to earn Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
The Bears, as mentioned, have quite a bit already in place to support their young signal caller, and they still have picks 9, 75, and 122 to further add to their roster. Given the situation a player of Williams’ caliber is entering in Chicago, the Bears are going to be an even more competitive football team than they were a year ago, but it’s important to note that both Allen and Swift have quite the injury history—Allen has missed 11 games in the past two seasons, and Swift finally had the first relatively healthy season of his four-year playing career last season, playing 16 games for the first time.
Still, the Bears opened with an over/under of 8.5 wins for the 2024 season, a step up from their 7.5 total they fell short of hitting a year ago. Make no mistake about it: Williams is coming into the league with loftier expectations than either Young and the Panthers (7.5) or Stroud and the Texans (6.5) faced in their rookie years, so managing those expectations along the way will be a unique challenge for Williams and the Bears in 2024 as they attempt to go from worst to first in the NFC North.
Williams long-term impact
If the Bears have managed to finally find their franchise quarterback—for the first time in their organization’s 105-year history—the NFC North will have three teams feeling set at the position between Jared Goff in Detroit, Jordan Love in Green Bay, and now Williams in Chicago. Getting quarterback, the most important puzzle piece, in place helps make everything that much easier, and as mentioned earlier, having that player on their cost-controlled rookie contract limits the number of cap gymnastics and tough decisions Poles will have to make in terms of personnel for the next few seasons.
Over the last two seasons, the Lions have gone 9-3 in the division, and that kind of intra-division success can’t be counted upon moving forward should Williams be the guy Chicago thinks he can be. Last year, the Lions narrowly escaped with a win over the Bears in their first meeting at Ford Field, and then suffered their lowest of lows in the regular season when they lost in Week 14 to Chicago. The Lions had their way with the Packers in Week 4, physically imposing their way and dominating the Pack at Lambeau, but when they met on Thanksgiving later in the year, it was all Green Bay. It was no coincidence that their manhandling of Detroit coincided with Love having much more experience under his belt.
Bottom line, Dan Campbell’s remarks from after the NFC Championship Game—”I know how hard it is to get here. It’ll be twice as hard to get back here”—remain pertinent. If the Bears have figured out the quarterback position, the NFC North could very well become the toughest division in football for the foreseeable future, and it’s going to be an even tougher mountain for the Lions to climb going forward.
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