One step in a long road ahead
The New York Jets enter a pivotal moment in franchise history, as the team is looking to rebound from a nightmare season that saw Aaron Rodgers last all of four snaps this past season. It was a punch in the gut for all involved, especially Aaron Rodgers, who had to truly feel the pain.
Picking up the pieces of a lost season may not be as easy as some think. Joe Douglas did all he could to fit the salary of his future Hall of Fame quarterback into the Jets’ salary cap. The 2023 salary cap was already perilous, but Joe Douglas made numerous moves to try to strengthen the roster, only to end up making the roster worse. He reworked contracts to become the voidable years king. He moved salaries that were in many cases overvalued into the future to save cap space in 2023. Joe was hoping for a Super Bowl, but instead he made a huge mess of things. He painted himself so far into a corner he is standing on his tippy toes.
Douglas did this when the 2024 NFL draft will be one of the best drafts in terms of talent in many years. There are offensive linemen galore, many of whom will become solid starters in the NFL. This may be the best wide receiver class in decades. There may be as many as 9 or 10 quarterbacks selected in the first two days.
Unfortunately, Joe has pushed so much salary cap into the future that the Jets have very few players they could trade for draft picks because of the dead money ramifications. In fact, in order to save some cap space the Jets will likely end up eating a bunch of dead money. As of today the Jets have roughly $15 million in cap space, even after accounting for the huge $30 million+ jump in the 2024 cap. That’s not much. This is after Aaron Rodgers graciously gave up $35 million in salary. To be in this situation after Rodgers was so accommodating to the Jets is mind blowing.
I will admit that I was all for the hiring of Joe Douglas as GM back in 2019, but I didn’t realize he was insane. I am tired of the Jets GMs being incompetent. I most recently had to deal with Mike Tannenbaum, who evidently is an idol to Joe Douglas as he was always up against the salary cap. At least Tannenbaum had some idea what talent he needed to build a team. Mike Maccagnan was even worse. He couldn’t find talent if it was sitting in front of him. Maccagnan gave egregious contracts to players he never talked to. It’s amazing to me that the recent Jets GM with the least knowledge of talent, John Idzik, had the best plan to build a team within the salary cap. He was just clueless to find NFL talent.
Obviously Woody Johnson didn’t bother to look at the roster, the draft and the horrendous situation the Jets are in or Joe Douglas wouldn’t have a job now. I will try and figure a way to give the Jets some room while adding talent. Hopefully Joe is seeing this.
New York Jets moves
First the subtractions
1) The Jets trade Allen Lazard (after June 1st) to the Tennessee Titans plus a 5th round 2025 pick for a 2025 7th round pick.
The Titans have excess cap space so they get a receiver who is still young for some cap space plus a boost in the 2025 draft.
The Jets save $10 million in cap space for 2024 with a $2,184,000 dead cap hit. You don’t get something for nothing, so we had to throw in a 5th round draft pick.
2) Trade Zach Wilson to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 6th round pick.
The Steelers are not sold on Kenny Pickett, they are thinking about starting Mason Rudolph, who has failed in the past. Maybe with a mature Zach Wilson behind an offensive line that is not offensive Zach can be successful. He is worth a 6th round pick to find out.
The trade saves the Jets $5,457,244 in cap space but leaves $5,731,033 in dead money.
3) Waive C.J. Uzomah.
Uzomah is a well-liked teammate who filled the blocking TE role. Sadly, that role is not worth the salary he is being paid. I was shocked when Joe Douglas signed Uzomah to such a contract, then signed Tyler Conklin to a similar deal just a day later. Douglas vastly overspent for non-dynamic players.
This move saves the Jets $8 million in cap space but leaves $3,221,244 in dead money.
4) Trade John Franklin-Myers (after June 1st) and a 2025 7th round pick to the Detroit Lions for a 2025 2nd round pick.
Franklin-Myers was a nice find by Douglas off the waiver wire, but Douglas signed him to a ludicrous 4 year $55 million contract after having a 3 sack season. Last year he had only 3.5 sacks and 33 total tackles. Franklin-Myers is still a good player, but he is not worth the $16,364,000 cap hit in 2024 or the $17,414,000 cap hit in 2025.
Detroit is looking for a Super Bowl. They have a stud (Aidan Hutchinson) on one end of the defensive line, but John Cominsky is not in the same league on the other end. Franklin-Myers is still young, and he would bring more power to the position, plus he could always rotate inside if needed. Detroit has a lot of cap space , so it’s a win-win for both teams. The trade has to be done after June 1st for the Jets to have the best cap savings.
This move saves the Jets $13,900,000 million in cap space, but it leaves $2,464,00 in dead money.
Total savings in cap space for these moves is $37,357,244, with a dead cap hit of $13,600277 in 2024.
Restructures
The Jets can restructure some contracts to add years to players the Jets actually want. These are not restructures to save cap space by adding voidable years. Yet we can lower the cap hit in 2024 and keep some players around to continue the rebuild.
CJ Mosley ILB
A few years ago I would not have done this, but Mosley has been a huge part of the defensive resurgence the past few years. He has been a tackling machine the last three years. He is also the unquestioned leader of the defense and in the locker room.
Mosley is in the final year of his contract (with two voidable years added; thanks Joe) with a $17 Million salary and a cap hit of $21,476,000, or $27,428,000 if you add on the voidable years. If we redo the contract for 3 years at $49 million with an $18 million signing bonus, the yearly salaries would be $4,000,000, $11,000,000 and $13,000,000 which gives a cap hit in 2024 of $10M, in 2025 $18M, and 2026 $21M. With a total guarantee of $37,000,000. Mosley gets a raise to $22 million in total for 2024.
That saves the Jets $1,048,000 in cap savings this year with no voidable years. It also extends Mosley out until 2026, by which time hopefully the Jets will find a suitable replacement.
DJ Reed CB
Reed has been solid across from Sauce Gardner. He has 156 tackles, 21 passes defended, and 2 interceptions in the last two years. If the Jets re-sign him now you can lower the cap hit, take away the voidable years and save having to re-sign him in 2025, when he will be a UFA.
Reed is in the final year of a $33 Million contract (plus 3 voidable years; thanks again Joe). He has a 2024 cap hit of 15,636,176, or $20,256,176 when you add the voidable years. Reed is only 28 years old, so he is in his prime right now. Let’s keep him with the Jets for the next 4 years with a $60 Million contract, including a $16 Million signing bonus.
The yearly salaries would be 2024 $2 Million, 2025 $12 Million, 2026 $14 Million, 2027 $16 Million. Cap hits would be 2024 $6 Million, 2025 $16 Million, 2026 $18 Million, 2027 $20 Million. It gives Reed $18 Million total in 2024, which is a lot more than he would get under the original contract. The Jets save only $321,176 in cap savings, but it gets rid of those voidable years in advance. The deal ties up Reed for 4 years now, which is key because Sauce Gardner has outplayed his contract and will be looking to redo his deal next year. You don’t want to sign both your corners the same year, plus with Reed an unrestricted free agent in 2025 he will want more money than he is getting in this deal.
Michael Carter CB
Carter has played well for the Jets, albeit in many less snaps than Sauce or Reed. He is basically a slot cornerback who covers well but is mediocre against the run. Still, he is also coming into the final year of his contract, so let’s get it done now. His cap hit is only $1,137232 so this will cost the Jets some money this year, but it ties up 2⁄3 of the cornerback group with Sauce sitting in the wings. If we don’t sign Carter and Reed now you will have your entire starting cornerback crew looking for deals in 2025.
We can get Carter a 3 year deal worth $12 Million with a $3 million signing bonus. You give him a big signing bonus so he will want to make a deal. Carter would get $4 million total in 2024 instead of a little over a million.
The salaries would be 2024 $1 Million, 2025 $3 Million, 2026 $5 Million. Cap hits would be 2024 $2 Million, 2025 $4 Million, 2026 $6 Million.
The signing of Carter costs the Jets only $865,768 against the cap for 2024 which is a bargain.
The restructuring keeps three valuable players on the defense for the next few years. It only saves $503,408 in salary cap, but combined with the $37,357,244 the Jets made by shedding some contracts saves a total of $37,860652. The Jets only had about $15 million in cap space coming into this exercise, so now they have $53 million to work with to bring in some help on the offensive line.
That $53 million sounds like a lot but it will go quickly once you start signing players & draft picks.
Free Agents
The free agent market doesn’t open until the league year starts, which is March 13th at 4 pm EST. Teams are allowed to negotiate with agents of players starting on March 11th at noon EST.
You never know who will be available to sign until then. Many fans get their hearts broken when a player they covet re-signs with his team before free agency begins. You can’t start planning on free agents now, as some will be re-signed and other players will be released and become free agents.
Jets Free agents that will need to be re-signed
Greg Zuerlein K
Thomas Morstead P
Ashtyn Davis S
They will need to think about bringing back Bryce Huff, but he will cost the Jets big bucks. With all the edge players the Jets have they may opt not to, but if they use my savings you could bring him back for $8 million a year for a couple of years.
Other players the Jets should not re-sign or maybe re-sign.
Should not re-sign:
Carl Lawson Edge
Duane Brown LT
Mekhi Becton LT
Trevor Siemian QB
Billy Turner RT
Solomon Thomas DT
Quinton Jefferson DT
Randall Cobb WR
Al Woods DT
Jordan Whitehead S
Maybe re-sign
Chuck Clark S
Justin Hardee ST/CB
Connor McGovern
Javelin Guidry CB
Kenny Yeboah TE
Bradlee Anae Edge
Zack Kuntz TE
Bryce Hall CB
The maybe players would only come back on prove it contracts.
As for outside free agents, you won’t know who is available for a while. I seriously doubt the Jets will have a shot at drafting Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt, who are the only rookies able to start at left tackle for the Jets out of this draft in 2024. Since the Jets probably know this, the two players I would look to sign would be Cornelius Lucas or Donovan Smith, with Smith as the preference. It was reported that he would be interested in joining the Jets to play with Aaron Rodgers if he doesn’t get offered by the Kansas City Chiefs. Neither would cost big money, but both would be at least capable players on the left side. It’s not ideal, but the choices are so few right now.
There you have it, my pre-draft plan.
Let me know what you think, and/or what you would do instead.
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