Why the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. isn’t as crazy as it may seem

The former Husky’s selection raised a lot of eyebrows, but Atlanta’s move was hardly unexpected.

The Atlanta Falcons’ selection of University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft caught a lot of people by surprise, including Mel Kiper Jr. and the rest of the talking heads on the official draft broadcast.

Kiper’s exact words when the pick was announced were, “Too high for my liking.”

Yet, within a few hours, reports emerged that three other teams, including the Seattle Seahawks, had tried to get into the top 10 to select Atlanta’s newest QB.

Personally, I wish Seattle had tried harder.

As y’all might remember, I had predicted that Penix was Seattle’s target at No. 16 and, admittedly, I would have loved to see him in a Seahawks uniform for the next decade or so.

Alas, ‘twas not meant to be . . .

Because he was selected by the Falcons at No. 8.

And although that surprised Kiper & Co., if there were at least four teams interested in taking him at that point in the draft, then maybe, just maybe, Atlanta isn’t as crazy as the internet seems to think.

Sure, the Falcons just signed Kirk Cousin to a 4-year, $180M contract. And, yeah, $90M of that was fully guaranteed the moment he signed the contract.

But . . .

There is a scenario where Atlanta could walk away from Kirk Cousins for the low, low price of $50M, and – – – wait for it – – – in that particular scenario, the Falcons would actually save money against their cap this season and next season.

Crazy, right?

And yet, the math bears it out.

Here are the relevant numbers for Cousins’ contract (per OTC):

• 2024: $12.5M base salary, $12.5M prorated signing bonus, $25M cap hit
• 2025: $27.5M base, $12.5M prorated bonus, $40M cap hit
• 2026: $35M base, $12.5M prorated bonus, $10M roster bonus, $57.5M cap hit
• 2027: Same as 2026

If, for whatever reason, the Falcons were to move on from Cousins before he played a single (regular season) snap for them, and did so via a trade, the numbers would look like this:

Atlanta Falcons:

• 2024: $12.5M prorated signing bonus, $12.5M cap hit
• 2025: $37.5M prorated signing bonus, $37.5M cap hit

Note: In this scenario, the Falcons would “save” $12.5M against their cap in 2024 and $2.5M in 2025.

Acquiring Team:

• 2024: $12.5M base salary, $12.5M cap hit
• 2025: $27.5M base, $27.5M cap hit
• 2026: TBD

Note: Cousins’ $10M roster bonus in 2026 was guaranteed against injury at signing and becomes fully guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2025 league year. There is no other guaranteed money on his contract though, which means the acquiring team could walk away after two years OR pay him $45M per season for another year or two (which might seem like a bargain by then).

Obviously, in this hypothetical scenario, Michael Penix Jr. would need to earn the Week 1 starting role as a rookie, Atlanta would need to find a trade partner (after June 1st), and the Falcons would have to be willing to “eat” $50M in dead money . . .

But crazier things have happened.

For example, a 3rd-round quarterback beat out a high(ish)-priced free agent quarterback (and an incumbent starter) in Seattle 12 years ago.

Even crazier, the Denver Broncos are eating $85M in dead money on the 5-year, $245M extension that Russell Wilson signed when Seattle traded him two years ago . . . even though he never played a single snap on that extension. (Ouch!)

Bottom line: The Falcons’ decision to draft a rookie QB at No. 8 six weeks after signing an expensive free agent QB was unusual, but it wasn’t crazy. And there’s a chance, depending on how the next few months play out, that we might end up viewing their move as brilliant…

Even if they end up paying Kirk Cousins $50M to never actually play for them.

Go Penix!