Join Tyler Forness and Scott Barrett as they delve into the 2024 NFL Draft, discussing potential first-round picks for the Minnesota Vikings, with a focus on QB J.J. McCarthy. They’ll also explore the wide receiver class and the balance between analytics and film in this engaging episode of The Real Forno Show. SKOL!
As the NFL Draft looms, speculation is rife in the latest episode of “The Real Forno Show,” where host Tyler Forness deliberates on the Minnesota Vikings’ future quarterback and evaluates this year’s wide receiver class.
In this episode of “The Real Forno Show,” host Tyler Forness and guest Scott Barrett, CEO of Fantasy Points, delve into the intricacies of football analytics. They speculate on the Minnesota Vikings’ future quarterback and offer an in-depth analysis of this year’s wide receiver class. The discussion also highlights the importance of both analytics and film in player evaluation, potential red flags in wide receiver evaluation, and the impact of quarterbacks on wide receiver metrics.
The Mystery of the Minnesota Vikings’ Future Quarterback
The episode kicked off with Forness discussing the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Minnesota Vikings’ future quarterback. This topic has been the center of discussion since Kirk Cousins, the team’s current quarterback, tore his Achilles tendon in October. Despite the countless debates and speculations, there’s still no clear indication of who will be the Vikings’ future quarterback.
“We are three days away from the Minnesota Vikings landing their quarterback of the future. Who’s that going to be? We still have no idea,” Forness said.
He pointed out the unpredictability of the situation, highlighting it as one of the wildest parts of the whole process.
A Comprehensive Analysis of the Wide Receiver Class
Following the discussion on the quarterback conundrum, the show shifted its focus to an in-depth analysis of this year’s wide receiver class. For this segment, Forness and Dave, the producer, welcomed Scott Barrett, CEO of Fantasy Points. Barrett is recognized for his analytical approach to evaluating wide receivers and their potential at the next level.
Barrett shared his insights on this year’s wide receiver class, identifying some standouts and potential future stars. He singled out a “big three-tier” at the top: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. However, he also pointed out a massive tier of wide receiver twos and threes, where the potential for breaking into the wide receiver one bracket isn’t very high.
“I have a big three tier at the top. After that, I’m seeing a giant, massive tier of wide receiver twos, wide receiver threes,” Barrett explained, emphasizing the broad range of talent in this year’s class.
Balancing Analytics and Film in Player Evaluation
Throughout the discussion, Barrett highlighted the importance of an integrated view, factoring in both analytics and film when evaluating players. While he is mostly an analytics guy, he believes in the value of film evaluation. He uses his model as a baseline and then manually adjusts players upwards or downwards based on various red flags he identifies or important contexts or nuances that need to be considered.
“Age-adjusted yards per route run does a lot of the heavy lifting in my model,” Barrett explained, adding that this metric is among the most predictive ones for wide receivers.
However, he also noted that this year’s wide receiver class appears overrated from an analytics perspective, especially when contrasted with the views of film people or mock drafters.
Uncovering Red Flags in Wide Receiver Evaluation
Beyond the metrics, Barrett also shed light on some potential red flags in wide receiver evaluation. He pointed out specific factors like yards per route run and age-adjusted production as critical elements to consider.
He used Malik Nabers as an example, stating that if you remove all screens and deep slot targets from Nabers’ production profile from last year, his production could be significantly reduced. He also raised concerns about Brian Thomas being a one-trick pony, with 44 percent of his yards last year coming on just one route, the go route.
“With Malik Nabers, if you remove all screens and deep slot targets from his production, you could basically cut his production perfectly in half,” he explained.
The Case of Adonai Mitchell: Analytical Red Flags
One of the players who drew significant attention was Adonai Mitchell. According to Scott, Mitchell’s analytical profile was far from being impressive. He pointed out numerous red flags, including Mitchell’s lack of productivity despite being a highly-rated player.
“If this guy’s so good at football, why wasn’t he good at football? At least analytically, like, cause Adonai Mitchell was like bad, like so bad,” Scott bluntly stated.
However, Scott acknowledged that there are other factors that could influence Mitchell’s performance. In particular, he highlighted Mitchell’s athleticism as a significant aspect that could potentially counterbalance some of the analytical concerns.
Ja’Lynn Polk’s Potential: A Smooth Mover with an Ability to Exploit
Ja’Lynn Polk, another up-and-coming wide receiver, was discussed in a more positive light. While Polk’s analytical profile might not be the most impressive, Tyler pointed out several qualities that could make the player a valuable asset. He noted Polk’s smooth movements and his ability to understand tempo and take advantage of cornerbacks.
“What I saw was an incredibly smooth mover, somebody who understands tempo and how to really take advantage of cornerbacks going deep,” Tyler explained. He also highlighted Polk’s great body control, which could be a significant asset in the player’s favor.
Johnny Wilson: A Unique Case of Contested Targets
The discussion also touched on Johnny Wilson, presenting a unique case in the mix. Despite a high percentage of contested targets, which in many cases could be seen as a red flag, Scott expressed interest in the athlete. He pointed out Wilson’s impressive production and athleticism as factors that make the player stand out.
“I still kind of really liked Johnny Wilson, even though it was like the contested targets were in such a range where I should really just write him off. It’s just the rest of the production, the athleticism is really good,” Scott noted.
The Bottom Line: Separation is Key
The discussion concluded on a note of agreement between Scott and Tyler on the importance of being able to consistently separate from cornerbacks. Both analysts concurred that if a player can’t separate against college cornerbacks, they are unlikely to do so in the pros.
This insightful exchange underscores the complexities of analyzing athletes and the importance of considering both analytical data and physical performance. It serves as a reminder that while metrics and analytics play a significant role in assessing a player’s potential, they should not be the sole determining factors. Observing a player’s physical performance and understanding their strengths and weaknesses is equally crucial in forming a comprehensive evaluation.
Rethinking the Approach to Analytics in Football
Analytics has been a buzzword in sports for some time now, but its application in football is still a subject of debate and ongoing refinement. Tyler opened the conversation by acknowledging the need for continuous learning and improvement in the use of analytics in football.
“The analytics community as a whole has a lot to contribute to the discussion. We’re constantly trying to update how we utilize our process, learning from instances where our predictions were wrong and improving our models,” Tyler shared.
The Justin Jefferson Case: An Examination of Slot Production
One of the key discussion points in the conversation was the Jalen Reager and Justin Jefferson case. The latter’s slot production, in particular, had been under scrutiny. Scott clarified that while Jefferson primarily operated in the slot in his final season, his performance out wide the previous year was exceptional.
“The NFL does tend to value the ability to separate out wide more than in the slot. Jefferson was really awesome when he was out wide,” Scott said, highlighting the importance of a player’s adaptability.
Exploring the Intricacies of Player Positioning
The conversation then delved into the intricate nuances of player positioning. Scott touched upon the shifts of players from slot to perimeter wide receivers and the challenges that come with it in terms of predictive analytics.
“That’s not something I’m going to be able to capture analytically, predicting a player’s success when they change positions. It’s going to take a really sharp film mind to watch a player and determine his best position,” said Scott.
The Impact of Quarterbacks on Wide Receiver Metrics
When asked about the impact of quarterbacks on wide receiver metrics, Scott emphasized the importance of target competition, adding another layer of complexity to analytics in football. He explained that the quarterback who throws the passes significantly impacts a wide receiver’s performance metrics.
“Who’s throwing the passes really matters. You’re just trying to look for as much predictive context and nuance as possible,” Scott said, underscoring the importance of considering all factors in evaluating player stats.
Predicting Future Draft Prospects
The conversation concluded with a discussion about potential draft prospects like Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, and the role of fantasy football in analyzing player performance. Tyler speculated about the NFL’s leanings, suggesting that Kevin O’Connell might have a particular interest in Drake Maye.
“I think the NFL is thinking, and my lean is that Kevin O’Connell is obsessed with Drake Maye. He does everything that you want from a timing perspective to really fit into Kevin O’Connell’s offense,” Tyler shared.
A Candid Exchange of Insights
The conversation between Scott and Tyler offered a deep dive into the world of football analytics, shedding light on the complexities and nuances of analyzing player performance. From discussing the relevance of slot production to the impact of quarterbacks on wide receiver metrics, the conversation highlighted the multifaceted nature of football analytics and its role in influencing decision-making in the draft selection process.
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Guest Scott Barrett, @ScottBarrettDFB from @FantasyPts joins Tyler Forness @TheRealForno of Vikings 1st & SKOL @Vikings1stSKOL and The Sporting News @sportingnews and Dave Stefano @Luft_Krigare producing this Vikings 1st & SKOL production, on the @RealFornoShow. Podcasts partnered with Fans First Sports Network @FansFirstSN and Fans First Sports Network’s NFL feed @FFSN_NFL.
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