When Will JJ McCarthy Start?

What development is needed for McCarthy to take the reins and will he be ready for Week One?

Now that the Vikings have placed their bet on their next franchise quarterback in JJ McCarthy, the focus has moved to when that next chapter will begin on the field for the Vikings.

Most quarterback evaluators think McCarthy needs some time to develop before he’s ready to start in the NFL, according to what they’ve seen from him on tape. Of those, the time needed before he’s ready to start ranges from possibly being able to start week one, to needing a full year to develop behind Sam Darnold.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has said that he has a plan in place for McCarthy’s development, which includes development milestones he needs to reach along the way until he is ready to start. O’Connell will not put a timeframe on when McCarthy will start, but instead will rely on his progress on his development plan before allowing him to start. O’Connell is likely to err on the side of caution when it comes to starting McCarthy, not wanting to screw-up his development and confidence by starting him too soon.

But what does McCarthy really need to develop before he’s ready to start? And how quickly should we expect him to do so? Let’s take a closer look at what that may involve and how much time it may take until he’s ready to start.

Background on McCarthy

It’s important to remember that all the college film of McCarthy at Michigan happened when he was either 19 or 20 years old. He is still maturing both physically and mentally. He added nearly 20 pounds since his last college game, and his football IQ continues to grow. Additionally, he’s not just added weight and strength since he won the national championship in January, he’s also been training as a quarterback, working with quarterback coaches, and preparing not just for the pre-draft process, but also for life as a quarterback in the NFL.

I’ve written about McCarthy’s college stats and scouting reports already, and will discuss more later on here, but having a bit of an (understandably biased) qualitative assessment of McCarthy from two of his quarterback coaches is helpful context for where he is now as a quarterback as well.

Darren Wolfson Interview with JJ McCarthy’s QB Coach Greg Holcomb

McCarthy’s QB Coach John Beck on The Rich Eisen Show

I’d be remiss if I didn’t include Jim Harbaugh among his coaches, but the thing with Harbaugh is that his comments have been so far over the top, without being tremendously detailed, that I’m not sure how valuable they are in getting an accurate assessment of where McCarthy is now as a quarterback. Harbaugh has compared McCarthy to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (despite having different strengths and weaknesses and styles of play) and that McCarthy was the best quarterback in the draft. It’s great to see such unmitigated praise for McCarthy from his former head coach of two seasons, and it’s a positive that Harbaugh went out on a limb in support of his quarterback, but beyond being a general positive I’m not sure there’s much else to get out of Harbaugh’s comments.

The one thing that comes across in a believable way with all these coaches to one degree or another, and particularly Greg Holcomb who’s coached him the longest, is that McCarthy is a pretty quick study when it comes to learning a concept and transferring it onto the field without much difficulty. That’s important in how quickly he’s able to learn the playbook, and also to make any relatively simple changes to his mechanics. More on that later.

Let’s start with a look at where McCarthy is now in three key areas critical for quarterbacking success in the league.

Key Factor for Success: Accuracy

Being an accurate passer is the most critical factor to being a successful quarterback in the league- or at any level really. But the margin of error when it comes to accuracy in the league is a lot smaller in the NFL than in the NCAA.

Below is a video of most every throw and run McCarthy made in the 2023 season.

I charted every one of McCarthy’s passes on this tape, marking them either accurate, catchable or inaccurate, regardless of whether the receiver caught the pass or not. The point of the exercise is to determine how accurate McCarthy was last season with his passes, and based on that, where improvement is needed.

Overall, my charting roughly corresponds with the same from Sports Info Solutions (SIS) which had overall on-target (accurate) rates of 77%, 66%, and 50% for short, intermediate, and deep distances. Short being 0-9 yards, intermediate 10-19 yards, and deep 20+ yards. It also corresponds roughly with McCarthy’s PFF’s adjusted completion percentage of 80% in 2023, which removes spikes, tipped balls, throwaways, and drops from completion calculations, if you assume a little over half of catchable passes are actually caught.

An accurate pass is one with good ball placement that either allows an open receiver to catch it within his frame and in stride to help maximize yards-after-catch (YAC) opportunity, or leads the receiver away from the defender, or in some cases where only the receiver can catch it, regardless if its within his frame or not, so long as it is also catchable.

A catchable pass is one that is within the catch radius of the receiver, but ball placement is less than ideal. It could be that the pass didn’t hit him in stride or otherwise allow an open receiver a good YAC opportunity; or was needlessly placed where the defender could make a play on the ball; or otherwise made for an unnecessarily more difficult catch.

Inaccurate passes are those either outside the frame of the receiver or placed where a defender clearly has a better chance of making the catch than the intended receiver.

The issue for many evaluators is not just the number or percentage of inaccurate passes, including at the various depths and locations, but also the number and percentage of catchable passes, particularly considering the transition from college to the league, where throwing windows are tighter, defenders better, and defensive schemes more complicated.

Throwing a catchable ball vs. an accurate ball can, at a minimum, result in lost YAC. YAC is often attributed exclusively to receivers, but the quality of the throw can make a big difference in the amount of YAC a receiver gets. For example, a simple dump-off pass to a back in the flat can either hit him in stride, allowing him to keep his momentum, quickly get upfield and be in better position to elude defenders; or it can be catchable (too low, too high, or behind), which forces the back to lose his momentum to haul in the pass, delaying his progress upfield and ability to see defenders. With an accurate pass a back can often make at least a short five-yard gain, with potential for a long one; with a catchable pass he often struggles to make a gain at all as defenders have more time to close in and blow-up the YAC opportunity before it starts. Similarly, a pass hitting a receiver in stride on a crossing route can provide a great opportunity for YAC, while a catchable pass thrown low or slightly behind the receiver causes him to slow down or go to the ground, allowing defenders to close in and make the tackle- shutting down the YAC opportunity. Those lost YAC opportunities due to less-than-ideal ball placement can be the difference between big plays and medium ones, or successful ones that move or keep ahead of the chains and unsuccessful ones that fall short. So, it’s no surprise that quarterbacks with a higher accuracy or on-target percentage also tend to benefit from more YAC from their receivers.

But throwing a catchable vs. accurate pass can also be the difference in whether the pass is completed or not. And adding in the tighter windows and better defenders in moving from college to the NFL, some of those ‘catchable’ passes in college become interceptions in the NFL.

With McCarthy, his catchable and inaccurate throw percentages are not terrible, but his potential in the NFL will be reduced if he’s not able to improve them. While having 100% accurate passes without sacrificing deeper throws is the ultimate goal, McCarthy being able to cut the percentage of catchable and inaccurate throws in half would allow him to have an elite ceiling in the league. That won’t happen overnight, or over the summer, but if McCarthy can avoid losing ground in terms of accuracy as he moves to the faster speed and tighter windows of the NFL, that would be a positive in his early development. It may take him a couple years to slowly increase his accuracy or on-target percentage with more time on task, but if he can deliver accurate passes 70% of the time, while avoiding the worst that goes with catchable and inaccurate passes most of the time, he should be in good shape for being at least an average starter, and more likely above average or better.

Deep ball accuracy is more of an issue for McCarthy than anywhere else, and many attribute that to a lack of top-tier arm strength. That’s true to a degree, but there’s also reason to believe McCarthy will improve in this area or has the capacity to improve.

First, as I mentioned above, McCarthy was only 20 years old last season when I charted his throws. His body is still maturing and he also added twenty pounds since his last college game. So there is some basis for believing his arm strength may improve in the future.

Secondly, while it’s often said that you can’t coach arm strength, and that’s true to a degree, but there are things that can be coached and practiced to improve arm strength. Arm strength isn’t simply a question of muscle mass in a quarterback’s throwing arm and shoulder. It’s also a question of biomechanics. A quarterback’s biomechanics has as much to do with velocity and distance as anything. And that can be coached for improvement. McCarthy generally has good footwork and lower body fundamentals, but improving his throwing motion and body torque can improve his overall arm strength when it comes to throwing the deep ball on and off platform.

Guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow all had McCarthy’s level of arm strength coming out of the draft. In all those cases they were able to improve their arm strength in subsequent years, but none of them ever had a canon. And they didn’t need one to become elite quarterbacks.

In McCarthy’s case, it looks like he’s spent some time working on his arm strength since he won the national championship in January.

Below is a clip from McCarthy’s pro day, which helped mitigate some concerns about McCarthy’s arm strength.

In the clip, McCarthy moves to his left and throws it sixty yards in the air, with his body falling away to the left, and hits Blake Corum in stride. Notice this was an off-platform throw. He didn’t set his feet and step into that throw, which mechanically allows a quarterback to generate the most power. If you compare this deep ball with others he threw during the 2023 season, this one had noticeably more loft. The same was true of the deep balls he threw at the Combine. During the season, McCarthy attempted to drive the ball more on deep balls, including a 50-yarder shown later, which is a challenge for even Josh Allen. Of course this was just a t-shirt and sweats exercise with no defenders, not a real game, etc., etc., but it nevertheless suggests that McCarthy has been working on this aspect of his game since he declared for the draft.

Another aspect of McCarthy’s deep ball accuracy is the small sample size. Had he thrown three or four more accurate deep balls, his accuracy percentages wouldn’t been roughly in-line with the average for the other first-round quarterbacks. The other thing about McCarthy’s small sample size for deep balls- I charted only about twenty all season- is the simple fact that he hasn’t thrown a lot of them. Not a lot of time on task, not a lot of reps to develop rapport with receivers. That’s a factor in accuracy as well.

In the John Beck interview he mentioned that McCarthy’s answer in team interviews for his lack of passing volume was that although the nature of the offense and game situations didn’t call for as much passing, they nevertheless practiced it throughout the season as at some point they felt they would need to do it to win. That was the case against Alabama and McCarthy was able to do so. Nevertheless, it would be surprising if Jim Harbaugh had McCarthy practicing deep ball throws extensively in practice given the focus of his offense.

So, now that McCarthy has moved on from Michigan and Jim Harbaugh’s offense, his deep ball may be an underdeveloped area of growth for McCarthy as he transitions into the league and a new, more pass-oriented offense with better receivers.

Key Factor for Success: Pocket Management

McCarthy’s ability to sense pressure and maneuver in the pocket to avoid pressure is generally one of his strongest points, along with good fundamental footwork, and doesn’t need a lot of development for him to succeed at the next level. The main development point is being able to step up to the increased speed, talent, and pass rush complexity at the next level. But there aren’t a lot of instances on tape last season where McCarthy fails to sense pressure, abandons clean pockets, or isn’t able to maneuver to avoid pressure while keeping his eyes downfield. The fact that he has good footwork and dropbacks is helpful in this area, and he generally appears calm and poised. He also shows good escapability from a collapsing pocket and the ability to extend plays in this way.

There are a couple reps where he tries to do too much after escaping the pocket initially, when throwing the ball away would’ve been a better choice, but this is something he’ll learn in time.

He also hasn’t experienced a lot of pressure in college, so how he’ll fare under increased pressure in the league, and more exotic blitz schemes and pressure packages remains to be seen. But he’s done a good job in the conditions he’s experienced so far.

Key Factor for Success: Processing/Decision-Making/Timing

It is this area, more than any other, that usually determines to what degree a quarterback is successful in the league. It is also an area where McCarthy has been inconsistent, which along with lower passing volume, has made McCarthy a difficult evaluation for most evaluators, and made McCarthy more of a projection than other quarterbacks.

The key here is how long does it take McCarthy, based on his pre-snap and post-snap reads of the defense, understanding the play design and working progressions, to target his receiver and get the ball out?

The best quarterbacks, once they’ve identified their target- and typically they know where they’re going with the ball pre-snap, subject to post-snap changes- throw immediately with anticipation as the receiver makes his break. Throwing windows in the league are typically brief, so if a quarterback has to wait for visual confirmation that a receiver is open before throwing, often it’s too late. The window closes forcing the quarterback to move on and subjecting him to pressure, or defenders react and can make a play on the ball if thrown late.

The difference between making the throw or missing it can be as little as one second or less.

And like pocket management, it’s a difficult thing to coach. You can go over the process, work on reading defenses, understanding the tells in defensive formation, leverage, film study, etc., and practice the plays, but ultimately it’s up to the quarterback to process and get the ball out fast enough to make the plays. Relatively few are able to do so consistently, but those who do rise to the top. And those who can’t become journeyman quarterbacks or worse.

With JJ McCarthy, he’s shown he can process quickly and make throws on time- even in tight windows- but he hasn’t been consistent in doing so. The clip below with Matt Waldman illustrates a play where McCarthy was not able to process and get the ball out on time.

McCarthy is simply too processing and getting rid of the ball, allowing the defenders to close in and break-up what would’ve been a big play had he thrown it on time. In the NFL that could’ve easily been an interception.

This next play in the clip below is another example of McCarthy not being able to get the ball out on time. In this case it still resulted in a completion- and this is also an example of a catchable vs. accurate pass- but had the defender looked back for the ball, he could’ve either defended the pass or intercepted it. But this is more an issue of throwing the ball late- and therefore also having to throw it farther against tight coverage- than an accuracy issue.

The next clip is from Kevin O’Connell’s film breakdown of JJ McCarthy. The first play is an example of McCarthy throwing on time, with anticipation, over the middle in a tight window. It demonstrates he can do it, and there are plenty of other examples of him doing so as well on tape.

The second play is the exact same play as above- but with a different perspective. My guess is that they wanted to show a deep ball like that and there aren’t a lot of those from McCarthy, so they chose this one to highlight a pro-style route concept despite it not being a great throw and lacking the proper timing and anticipation.

The third play is McCarthy under pressure and exemplifies how he played under pressure at Michigan. He senses the pressure, moves to avoid it and is able to extend the play. And he does so with poise, not panic.

Overall, these three plays combine to give a somewhat representative sample of where McCarthy is as a quarterback.

So What Does McCarthy Need to Improve Before He Is Ready to Start?

Based on all of the above, and his transition to the NFL, McCarthy has to develop in a few areas before he is ready to start.

Learn the Playbook

I’ll start with the most obvious. McCarthy needs to learn the playbook to the point where Kevin O’Connell has the confidence in him to execute it correctly. At some point in the off-season program KOC will have an idea of how quickly he’s picking it up and may be able to project when McCarthy will have enough mastery of the playbook to start.

Given the McCarthy came from a pro-style offense, has played under center, in huddles, and is familiar with many of the concepts in O’Connell’s West Coast offense, I would be surprised if this is something that holds him back from starting Week One.

Get Up to Speed with the NFL

The next thing McCarthy will have to develop is adjusting to the speed of the NFL. Everything happens faster in the NFL than in college, and both offense and defense are more complex, so he’ll need to be able to absorb all that and develop his own game to the NFL level.

Towards the end of last season, McCarthy was able to play against more NFL-like defenses such as Alabama, that employ NFL schemes and have NFL-level talent, so McCarthy will have some exposure to what quarterbacking in the NFL will be like. He won’t be able to do that all at once before he becomes a starter, but he should be able to make progress to an acceptable level where he’s able to function effectively before being asked to start.

This is another area where coaches should be able to determine how quickly he’s adapting over the course of the summer, and have some idea by early in training camp to project when he may be ready in this aspect.

Improve Processing and Timing

McCarthy also needs to improve the consistency of his processing speed and timing, as outlined above. The encouraging thing about this is that most of his issues in this area seem to be on deeper throws, which he hasn’t had as many reps with- very few in fact. It may be with more reps, he is able to improve his processing as he becomes more familiar with throwing these routes and defensive schemes on these plays. It would be more troubling if McCarthy was having these processing and timing issues on higher volume pass plays where he’s had a lot of reps but still hasn’t been able to improve.

Giving McCarthy more reps in practice on deeper throws should give him the opportunity to improve in this area, and at some point maybe half-way through training camp, if not earlier, they should have an idea of his progress.

Improving Ball Placement

McCarthy may not need a lot of improvement in ball placement before he’s ready to start, although the more the better, but the coaching staff will want to see some amount of improvement and the sense that as he continues with more reps, ball placement will continue to improve.

Mechanics and Making All the Throws

For most quarterbacks entering the league, there is some amount of mechanical issues they need to clean up or improve. JJ McCarthy is no exception, although his fundamentals and footwork are generally pretty good.

Speeding up a rookie quarterback’s throwing motion is often on the list of things to improve or clean up, as a quicker motion and release improves timing and also makes it more difficult for defensive linemen to bat down passes. In McCarthy’s case some evaluators have said he isn’t as accurate throwing to his left, and that he may overstride a bit on these throws. These are things McCarthy should be able to correct early on and with proper coaching by the end of OTAs.

There is also McCarthy’s ability to make all the throws. Normally when this is discussed it is in relation to arm strength and being able to throw with enough velocity on deeper out routes from the opposite hash and other throws that require the most arm strength. McCarthy doesn’t really have an issue making all the throws in that sense.

Where he does have an issue is his ability to throw with touch. McCarthy is often described as a fast-ball only quarterback when it comes to his throwing style, and that shows up on tape. He’s not shown the ability to layer throws with touch over the heads of linebackers to a receiver on the second-level or throw with the loft on a deep route to allow the receiver to run under the throw. Those types of throws require different mechanics (and reps) to develop that touch where a straight-line fastball either doesn’t work or is less than ideal. McCarthy will need to add those clubs to his bag early on to optimize his success as a passer.

Below are some clips from NBC Boston from before the draft demonstrating McCarthy’s arm strength when it comes to gunning it over the middle, and even a relatively straight-line throw- similar to the duplicated one above- that went for a sixty-yard completion. The trajectory and distance on that ball demonstrates McCarthy’s arm strength, but also his lack of loft on deep throws like that one. McCarthy’s Combine and Pro Day performance suggest he’s been working on that aspect of his game, as I mentioned earlier, and is also something he’ll be able to work on all summer.

Bottom Line

We don’t know how quickly JJ McCarthy will be able to absorb and develop all that is necessary to put him in a good position to succeed as a starter. We do know from his coaches that he has been a quick study in the past and that is encouraging for his timeline to becoming the starter for the Vikings. We also know from both his coaches and scouting reports that he’s willing to put in the work necessary to develop on a relatively quick timeline, whether learning the playbook or improving technique. And when it comes to both, he’ll be helped by already being familiar with the concepts and by having good coaches to help him develop.

Kevin O’Connell has said he has a plan that includes milestones McCarthy needs to reach along the way that will determine his timeline to being a starter. In addition to that, I suspect that coaches will be able to get a read on the speed of his development either prior to or early on in training camp, and that may determine how they allocate reps and whether they feel McCarthy is on track to start week one or not.

If they don’t think McCarthy is on track, they’ll allocate more reps to Sam Darnold to get him ready to start early on. If they feel he is on track, they may opt to give him the reps to put him in the best position as the week one starter.

Lastly, we don’t know how Sam Darnold will do during the off-season program and training camp. If past is prologue, it won’t be enough to forestall McCarthy becoming the starter when he’s ready. But there is also the possibility that Darnold is able to improve his processing and other areas where McCarthy isn’t able to beat out Darnold for the starting job. Perhaps a nice problem to have, but I’m not sure that is the most likely outcome either.

McCarthy being named the week one starter is still the best-case scenario, rather than the most likely case scenario. There will be clues along the way, but with O’Connell likely to take a cautious approach to starting McCarthy, I’d say it’s more like a 30% chance he’s ready to start week one and a 70% chance he starts in October.

Stay tuned.

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