When does the ‘best’ QB in each draft get taken?

How often is the best QB in the draft taken in the top 3 and how often is the best QB taken later?

There is plenty of chatter that there could be four quarterbacks taken in the top five or six picks in the draft. Were this to happen it would be the first time that it has ever happened.

Only three times in history have the top three picks been QBs: 2021, 1999 and 1971. 1989 doesn’t count because two QBs were taken with the first and second pick of the supplemental draft (Steve Walsh and Timm Rosenbach).

2021 – Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance

1999 – Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith

1971 – Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Jim Pastorini

This got me wondering where in the draft the best QB from each class was taken. I used total career games started as the criteria. Here is the list going back to 1970 of where the best QB was drafted (pick #) and who that QB was/is.

Of course you could argue (rightly) that Brock Purdy is (as of right now) the best QB from the class of 2022, despite Kenny Pickett having made more starts, but for the sake or ease, I went with career games started as my metric.

So fourteen times the best QB in the draft has been taken first overall, starting with Terry Bradshaw in 1970 (I have the data going further back, but frankly, I really don’t care about it). Only once was the best QB in the draft taken second (McNabb). The draft slot with the most “best” QBs after number one is the sixth. Those would be Richard Todd, Trent Dilfer and Justin Herbert. The latest that the best QB has ever been draft (1970-present) is 330th. No that was not Tom Brady; that was Brian Sipe in the 1972 draft. He was taken in the 13th round, back when there were almost as many rounds in the draft as there were teams in the NFL. Brady was drafted 199th.

The Broncos could end up takin the fourth or even the fifth QB drafted if they stay with the 12th pick. While that often leads to a wasted pick like Matt Corral, Davis Webb, Christian Hackenberg, Ryan Nassib, Mike Kafka, Pat White or Kevin O’Connell – all of whom started zero NFL games. Sometimes it can lead to Marc Bulger, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. While none of those guys ever led his team to hoist the Lombardi, you could argue that two or more of those guys are or were franchise QBs (whatever that term means).