The New York Jets’ offensive line and building a proper house

The Jets offensive line needs are many and their resources are few

I usually like to couch my arguments in some type of data to support them. Sometimes though, a claim is so obviously true that I don’t feel the need. An example of that latter situation is when I say something like this: “The New York Jets offensive line was bad in 2023.” In that case, I don’t really need any stats to back it up because any version of the eye test would confirm as much. That’s because they weren’t just bad. They were horrifically bad. Anyone who watched the Jets for even a few minutes could see that.

And the Jets seem quite aware of that too. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers even mentioned it outright.

With that in mind, it makes sense why the Jets have been linked to a number of the high-priced offensive linemen. It makes sense, right? The offensive line is bad. Therefore add great players to the offensive line. Great players cost a lot, so whatcha gonna do?

Well, for one, I would start by not paying a premium for individual players on the offensive line, and I think the easiest way to explain why is via thinking about the offensive line as a house.

For this thought exercise, let’s just go ahead and assume that we are building the world’s simplest house. Think of literally a square with a floor, 4 walls and a flat one-dimensional roof. The bare minimum needed for something to constitute a dwelling.

For the sake of making the comparison a bit more linear, let’s go ahead and pretend the following:

• The center is the floor of the house. He is the base from which all else on the offense grows. The house begins with him in the same way that an offensive play begins with a snap.
• The other four lineman are the walls of the house. They complete the base and without them our house would be as vulnerable as can be.
• The quarterback is the roof of the house. The roof is most stable when supported by a ground floor and four supporting walls to keep it upright and level.

Now the Jets offensive line as currently situated has two potential supporting pieces. They have a center in Joe Tippman. They also have the Swiss army knife of offensive linemen in Alijah-Vera Tucker, who can play any of the other four positions. But outside of that? Well, let’s just say that it’s tough to balance a roof on a floor that only has one wall.

And if we think about it, would we really trust the roof to be stable with only one other wall? I mean it could stand, but a wobble by either wall and that roof is coming down.

And even if we got it to stand then what’s to stop intruders (or a defensive lineman) from simply walking right in one of the missing walls? It’s a flawed design at best.

To me, that’s why an offensive line is like a house. Sure, you can create something stable with only a few good parts, but do you really want to? Even if those two stabilizing parts are about as good as they come? I mean, you can, but all it takes is a burglar (or a pass rusher) to walk in one of the other sides and you’ve got a problem. To me, I want a house with 4 walls, a floor, and a roof. Absent that, I’ve got a problem. And, for a football team, if you’re missing a serviceable player at any offensive line spot then you’ve probably got a problem too.

And that’s why I don’t think it’s a good idea for the Jets to spend a big chunk of the 20.7 million in available cap largely on one lineman. Sure, they’d have 2 potentially awesome walls and a sturdy floor in the added player, Vera-Tucker, and Tippman, but the house would still have some glaring flaws and we’d have to accept that going in. By comparison, the sturdiest home would feature 4 walls and a floor, and I don’t really see why that’s an impossible ask when the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs were able to fix an offensive line in one season in recent years.

In reality, it is doable. It just involves being a bit more cost conscious and it won’t have the back page “splash” factor that signing a perceived top-tier free agent would have. So how they can they do this?

To start, let’s consider the alternative where the Jets sign one premier offensive lineman. Using ProFootballFocus’ free agent estimates, one potential target could be Mike Onwenu who played for the New England Patriots last season. He is estimated to earn a 4 year, 58-million-dollar contract with an average yearly value of 14.5 million. For reference, Onwenu is very good, with PFF grades that ranked in as the 3rd and 4th best tackle in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

The Jets could do that. They could spread his cap hits across several years but that’s probably still going to stretch their remaining cap space out at least a little bit. And in this scenario, they’d still need to find acceptable players at two other offensive line positions, and they’d need to add some wide receivers, and that’s without considering how they’d add depth. Offensive lines rarely make it through the whole season with only their projected starters.

Instead, what I would suggest is to shop in the second or even third tier of the offensive line. Take that $14.5 million a year and spread it across two or even three players that are lesser players but still acceptable. We don’t need the best walls in town. We just need walls that are strong enough to keep the roof upright. The whole point of paying a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers is that he should be able to get by with “good enough” rather than “great.” What could that look like this offseason?

To begin, we must acknowledge that PFF largely has the second-tier offensive lineman in the 7.5-million-dollar range. That means they could acquire two linemen for the same AAV that a player like Onwenu would receive. What do some of those players look like?

• Guard Kevin Zeitler: He’s 34, but he’s ranked no lower than 15th among qualified guards in PFF grades over the last 3 years.
• Center Connor Williams: He’s 27, he’s ranked no lower than 10th among centers over the last three years, but he’s coming off an ACL injury.
• Tackle Jermaine Eluemunor: He’s 29, he was a longtime swing tackle, but over the last two seasons he’s played full time and earned PFF grades that ranked 21st and 36th among tackle.
• Tackle Trent Brown: He’s 30, he struggled the last time he left New England, but he’s ranked among the top 43 tackles according to PFF in each of the last 3 years, with a ranking of 11 this year.
• Guard Jon Runyan: He’s 26, he’s a friend of Aaron Rodgers from their Green Bay Packers days, and he’s been basically a league average guard in each of the last three seasons with rankings ranging from 37 to 48 over the last three years. He doesn’t have much upside, but he is acceptable.

To me, these are largely better values in that they’re going to fill a currently bad offensive line spot with someone who is likely to be at least “good enough” and allow the Jets to fill two spots with the same money that could instead play a great player to fill one spot.

And not only does this take an additional bad player off the field but it also helps the team to build out some much-needed depth to withstand an injury.

Let’s think about this as a house again: if you have three good walls and one goes down then you still have two walls to support the roof. Will it stay up? Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. Depends on what wall fell and what is left to keep it upright. But what I do know is that if you have two walls and one goes then that structure is going to down, no question about it. In a league where injuries are common, having the potential to withstand a few can make all the difference.

Will they do this? That is opt to spread the money around instead of throwing it all down in one place? Recent history for the Jets and the free agent rumors seem to say no. But as a fan, I hope they at least consider it because another offensive line that is one injury from horrific is just not something that I want to watch again.

What do you think? How should the Jets allocate their cap space to fix the offensive line?