Patriots draft profile: Brenden Rice could help address the X-receiver issue

One of projected first overall pick Caleb Williams’ favorite targets could find his way to New England.

Projected top-5 selection Marvin Harrison Jr. is not the only son of a Hall of Fame wide receiver entering the NFL Draft this year. Brenden Rice, whose father Jerry is the most productive pass catcher in league history, also is making the jump from the college to the pro level this spring.

While not as high-profile a prospect as Harrison Jr., Rice offers some serious talent in his own right — talent that might be appealing to a New England Patriots team in need of upgrading its offensive skill position arsenal.

Hard facts

Name: Brenden Rice

Position: Wide receiver

School: USC

Opening day age: 22 (3/18/2022)

Measurements: 6’2 3/8”, 208 lbs, 78” wingspan, 33” arm length, 9 5/8” hand size, 4.50 40-yard dash, 6.95 3-cone drill, 4.45 short shuttle, 36.5” vertical jump, 9’11” broad jump, 13 bench press reps, 7.07 Relative Athletic Score

Experience

Career statistics: 40 games (32 starts) | 1,582 offensive snaps, 227 special teams snaps, 1 defensive snap | 179 targets, 111 catches (62.0%), 1,821 receiving yards, 21 TDs | 6 carries, 54 rushing yards (6.0 yards/carry) | 22 kickoff returns, 555 yards (25.2 yards/return) | 1 punt return, 81 yards, 1 TD | 2 fumbles

Accolades: Second-team All-Pac 12 (2023)

A multi-sport athlete at Hamilton High School in Chandler, AZ, Rice headed toward the college level as a three-star recruit. He ended up committing to the University of Colorado, where he served as a part-time wide receiver and return man. But even though his opportunities increased from his freshman to his sophomore campaign, he entered the transfer portal in January 2022 and moved to USC.

As a Trojan, Rice quickly developed a rapport with quarterback Caleb Williams and became one of the team’s most productive pass catchers. In total, he appeared in 26 games over a two-year period and caught 84 passes for 1,402 yards and 16 touchdowns, earning second-team All-Pac 12 honors along the way.

Draft profile

Expected round: 3 | Consensus big board: No. 101 | Patriots meeting: N/A

Strengths: Standing at 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds, Rice offers good size to succeed as a perimeter target at the next level. Despite his build, he is surprisingly quick in and out of his breaks. This allows him to get cornerbacks to open their hips prematurely, before hitting them with decisive cuts that don’t result in too much lost speed.

Rice also works back toward the ball well, instead of letting it come to him. This makes him less susceptible to be beaten at the catch point, which results in him being a productive target in competitive situations. He is a good 50-50 receiver who maximizes his catch radius by getting the most out of his natural length. This, in turn, has allowed him to become a productive red zone target.

In general, Rice is a physical player both as a receiver — one capable of running through tackle attempts with the ball in his hands — and when asked to block in the run and screen games. He has shown a willingness to get his hands dirty in that regard, and has been good at identifying and engaging his targets in open space. He also has the necessary base and upper body strength to hold his blocks.

Weaknesses: While Rice is quick, he is not overly explosive into the base of his routes. His release still has room for development, especially versus man-to-man coverage looks. He also lacks a true second gear to get past defenders once they are over him. His long speed also is somewhat pedestrian, meaning that he is not your classic threat to take the top off of a defense or consistently generate yards after the catch.

Rice’s footwork at pivotal moments in his route also can get better still, both to consistently execute sharp cuts and to wiggle free from press-man defenders. He also has been uneven when it comes to tracking deep balls and positioning himself to come down with the football in situations such as these, which contributed to seven credited drops over the last two years.

In addition, he doesn’t project to be overly flexible from a positional perspective. Rice is a perimeter target, with little exposure to lining up in the slot.

Patriots preview

What would be his role? Rice is a classic perimeter target, who could serve as an X-receiver in New England’s offense. As such, he would likely be given an opportunity early in his career: unless the team decides to add another player at the position, the youngster would project as a stater-caliber option among a group of players also featuring Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, and T.J. Luther, as well as possibly K.J. Osborn. Thornton is a bit of a wild card within the offense under new coordinator Alex Van Pelt, but Rice emerging as the starting X could very well happen.

What is his growth potential? Rice already is well-developed as a receiver, but there are definitive areas which he can improve at the next level. The early phase of his routes especially versus man coverage needs to be smoothened out, for example, for him to become a consistently productive wideout. If he can do that, though, he has intriguing potential as a starting-caliber player.

Does he have positional versatility? Compared to other wide receivers in this draft, Rice is a rather one-dimensional player who is best used at the perimeter rather than being moved around the formation. He does offer some special teams experience, however, and had some good moments as a kickoff returner while also taking his lone punt runback 81 yards for a touchdown. Realistically, though, he will not see too much action outside of his pre-established comfort zone.

Why the Patriots? With DeVante Parker released and no other true outside receivers brought aboard this offseason, the Patriots aer in dire need to find talent at the position. Even though there are some limitations to his game and overall athletic makeup, Rice does have that talent and would help address a need. A projected late-Day 2 pick, he could get an opportunity to contribute right away.

Why not the Patriots? The Patriots drafting an outside receiver seems to be a foregone conclusion, but they might feel more comfortable with other options like Adonai Mitchell or Devontez Walker. There also is a chance that they might not be willing to move into his projected target area, which lies right between the third (3-68) and fourth (4-102) selections they own.

One-sentence verdict: Rice is not a polished prospect by any means, but he is one of the top true X-receivers available and has some traits New England traditionally values.

What do you think about Brenden Rice as a potential Patriots target? Would he make sense on Day 2? Or are other X-receiver targets preferable? Please head down to the comment section to share your thoughts.