With the draft class weaker in an area of need for Green Bay, can free agency fill the gap?
From a salary cap perspective, the worst is behind us. In 2023, the Green Bay Packers finished the season with nearly $100M of cap space used on players who were not on the field, the vast majority of which came from three players: Aaron Rodgers and his $40M dead cap, David Bakhtiari’s $20.9M cap hit, and Adrian Amos’ $7.95M dead cap. As the Packers move into 2024, they will still be cleaning up the remnants of their COVID/late Rodgers era can-kicking, but rather than being completely absent in the free agent market, they may be able to add a couple of modest contracts this off-season.
There are two other reasons that Green Bay may step into free agency again to plug some holes. Most importantly, Green Bay’s major holes, both safety spots and linebacker, are very weak in this draft class, with no player currently ranked in the top 40 at those positions on the consensus draft board. The other reason, albeit less important, is that Green Bay does not have any major free agents of its own this off-season. Darnell Savage, Jon Runyan Jr., Keisean Nixon, and Yosh Nijman headline a very weak class of free agents for Green Bay, which means any compensatory pick calculations will be of little import. Since Green Bay is unlikely to get much of value from a comp pick perspective for these players, the calculation tips more in favor of doing some spending in free agency.
Now just because Green Bay may open up some cap space for free agency doesn’t mean they’ll be swimming in the deep end, so any additions they make here are more likely to be veteran stop-gaps, dart throws, or bets that a change of system/scenery can get more out of a player. Today, I’ll dive into some bargain bin options at safety, with a class that is pretty decent.
Free/Post Safety
Right now Green Bay currently only has one actual safety on the roster (sorry Zayne Anderson), and that is Anthony Johnson, Jr. AJJ profiles as the single-high safety in new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s defense (structured similarly to Robert Saleh’s and Demeco Ryan’s). While AJJ was fine-ish for a seventh round pick last year, he was just that: a seventh round pick. I doubt the Packers will want to go into the season with him as the starting free safety. One positive for the Packers is that there is a large handful of safeties that fit the mold they’re looking for. This position is generally going to be reserved for guys who are able to cover from numbers-to-numbers, or ideally, sideline-to-sideline, while playing the middle third. Ball production and coverage skills are going to be prioritized in this role. Run defense is less important, as they will not have gap or alley responsibility in the run fit, but tackling in the open field is still important as this player truly is the last line of defense. Antoine Winfield Jr., Kamren Curl, and Xavier McKinney were not considered here for financial reasons.
Geno Stone
Brad Spielberger (PFF) contract projection: 2 years, $13M, $7.25M guaranteed
Stone had a breakout 2023 season as part of a Baltimore defense that was among the best in the NFL. Seven of his eight career interceptions came this past year and he played the overwhelming majority of his snaps at the free safety spot, with 70% of his snaps coming with him in that role. Smith has always gotten solid marks for his coverage skills, but his tackling and run defense have routinely been problematic. While the run defense is less of a concern as the post-man in Hafley’s system, he would be the last line of defense, so missed tackles likely mean touchdowns. Another knock on Stone is that playing him as a true post-safety, rather than in a split-safety system may overexpose him athletically. Stone had an extremely poor showing in his pre-draft workouts, with a 3.81 RAS, where his long-speed was especially problematic.
Jordan Whitehead
Brad Spielberger contract projection: 2 years, $12M, $6.5M guaranteed
Whitehead is a plug-and-play option in the post safety role, having played this exact role for Robert Saleh the past two seasons. Whitehead’s highs have not been as high as Stone’s, he has never topped four interceptions in a season, but he does have a longer track record of starter-level snap counts, dating back to his time in Tampa Bay under Todd Bowles. Whitehead’s athleticism isn’t at the level you’d ideally want from a player in this role, and is the primary reason why he’s available for a cheaper contract. Whitehead will only be 27 years old next year despite entering his seventh season in the league, so despite extensive experience, he is still likely in his prime years.
Darnell Savage
Brad Spielberger contract projection: 2 years, $10M, $6M guaranteed
I know, I know. Darnell Savage has been a disappointment after some early flashes in his career. After the switch in systems, from Mike Pettine’s pressure-based structure out of the Rex Ryan tree, to Joe Barry’s two-high shell/quarters system from the Vic Fangio tree, Savage rarely replicated the play of his first two years. Savage’s biggest struggle is in run defense, where he’s just too small and too sloppy as a tackler to routinely get running backs to the ground. He is a great athlete though, and has legitimate ball skills. I would not be surprised if Green Bay brought him back on a cheap deal with the idea that playing him as a post safety is the ultimate best fit for his skills. While there is downside risk with Savage, since he may not be a good player no matter what his role is, of the acquirable free agents, Savage still retains the highest ceiling due to his athleticism and ball skills.
Strong/Box Safety
While the Packers at least have Anthony Johnson, Jr. at the free safety position, Green Bay currently has no one under contract to fill the role of strong or box safety. Everyone’s archetype of this position is Kam Chancellor, who played this role for the Legion of Boom Seattle Seahawks, however, most box safeties don’t actually play at 230 pounds. Kyle Dugger leads this free agent class at the box safety spot, as another big bodied safety at 220 pounds, but Dugger is likely to be out of Green Bay’s league financially, as he’s expected to either be tagged or receive a larger contract that Green Bay can reasonably do this off-season. Still, there are some options a bit further down the list. Other players not considered for financial reasons here included Kamren Curl and Xavier McKinney.
Julian Blackmon
Brad Spielberger contract projection: 2 years, $11.5M, $6M guaranteed
Blackmon is probably too undersized for what Hafley will want from his drop-down safety, and almost plays the role as more of a nickel than a true strong safety. Only Rayshawn Jenkins and Kyle Dugger played more box safety snaps than Blackmon last year, but he’s undersized for the role at just 190 pounds. He lacks the deep speed to play as a free safety, and time playing corner in college shows up when defending receivers or tight-ends. One breath of fresh air for the Packers would be that he had one of the lowest missed tackle rates amongst starting safeties last season.
Jeremy Chinn
Brad Spielberger contract projection: 1 year, $3M, $2M guaranteed
The reclamation project of all reclamation projects. Chinn had a solid rookie year in 2020 and was solid across the board in 2021 before turning in back-to-back stinkers the past two seasons. The big difference for him was the change in his usage. Chinn went from playing 50% of his snaps in the box in 2021 to just 25% in 2022. His largest rate of usage actually came as a slot corner over the past two seasons, a role to which he is not entirely well suited. Chinn plays at 220 pounds and is a fine tackler, particularly near the line of scrimmage, so a move into a more narrow role could fit him well. In addition to being 220 pounds, Chinn is a monster athlete, with a perfect 10 RAS score in his draft class (note that he did not do the agility drills, which if you watch him on the field you can tell they almost certainly would have dragged his score down). Chinn is exactly the type of player you would hope to be able to level up in a role more befitting his skill set, and playing as the drop-down safety in a single-high system could be just what he needs to get his career going again.
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