Larkham’s Brumbies must gallop to fifth gear to be title contenders – and address two key challenges in uncertain times

If there is one club that has kept Australian fans from turning off Super Rugby, it is the Brumbies.

Australia’s highest achievers at the Super Rugby level and the team that has made the second-highest number of grand finals in the competition’s history (a distant second to the Crusaders), the men from Canberra have embodied the frustration that has kept many fans attached to the Australian game: the talent is there, the potential is there, you can see that they have it in them to end the losing drought. 

Yet, when it comes to executing on the park, the team has fallen short at critical moments: they struggle to crack into that final gear to challenge the best of the best. 

Since the commencement of Super Rugby Pacific in its current incarnation, the Brumbies have bowed out twice in the semis, but on both occasions pushed the Blues and Chiefs enough that they would both go on to lose their respective grand finals the following week.

Whether you are a fan of him or not, the success Dan McKellar found at the Brumbies was an impressive feat, and even more so that Stephen Larkham was able to replicate that result in his first year back in charge.

It was not a perfect year for the Brumbies, with key moments of execution combined with Wallabies selection processes exposing depth issues that stifled momentum on several occasions. 

What was revealed was that while they can beat heavyweight teams like the Hurricanes and Blues consistently, and put away the exciting new challengers like the Fijian Drua, we know that the day they beat the Chiefs or the Crusaders regularly is the day they change the game. 

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2024 Summary 

Larkham comes into 2024 with the Brumbies as a crossroads: Australian rugby is still reeling from the disaster of 2023, with its future rife with questions. More than anything, Australian rugby fans and players alike want results.

The Brumbies face this season without one of the smartest rugby brains in the Australian game, ‘Lord’ Laurie Fisher, and it also marks their first season without the great, late Garry ‘Quinzo’ Quinlivan, a man warmly regarded as the soul of the club. 

On the paddock, the Brumbies have undergone several changes, with key player losses including Wallaby scrumhalf Nic White, local prop Tom Ross and gun loose forward Pete Samu. Overall, ten players have departed the main squad, but this number is deceiving: out of all 12 teams, the Brumbies come into 2024 with the most unchanged and settled lineup.

The vast majority of the squad had already re-signed for multiple-year contracts by early 2023, and while the likes of Pedro Rolando, Nathan Carroll and Jesse Mogg will be out of the squad, they will be remaining in the Canberra pathway system and John I Dent Cup. 

Replacing Fisher in the scrummaging ranks is John Ulugia, who joins Brumbies, Reds and former Wallabies captain Ben Mowen as defence coach. 

Mowen has transitioned from player to rising star in the coaching ranks, with success as Easts Tigers in Brisbane’s Hospital Cup competition and stints with the Australian U20s and Japan’s Women’s side during the 2021 Rugby World Cup.

More importantly, Ulugia and Mowen are well-established names at the Brumbies, and with the squad confirmed early, they have had ample opportunity to prepare for 2024.

Squad & New Inclusions

As a result of early commitments, the Brumbies have only added three new squad members, with Brisbane Boys College product Lachlan Shaw joining the academy program, Harrison Goddard coming in as a more experienced backup scrum half for Ryan Lonergan, and Austin Anderson adding further depth to the centres after making the journey across from Waikato. 

Similar to many of the stronger Kiwi sides, the Brumbies will debut an imposing starting side, with 14 Wallabies. Their forward pack is especially dangerous, with Wallaby veterans Allan Alaalatoa and James Slipper being joined by exciting next-generation prospects in Blake Schoupp and Rhys van Nek, alongside three international capped hookers.

This front pack will be heavily supported by a strong engine room in Nick Frost, Tom Hooper and Cadeyrn Neville, with Darcy Swain also looking to force his way back into the starting side. 

While Samu is a huge loss, the club have found some exciting prospects in Luke Reimer and Jahrome Brown, who have proven an effective combination with Rob Valetini.

The halves will see the most significant change, with Ryan Lonergan stepping into the starting scrum half role to accompany either Noah Lolesio or Jack Debreczeni. 

Ollie Sapsford and Tamati Tua have proven themselves to be exciting prospects to accompany Len Ikitau in the centres, and the backline is capped off by Andy Muirhead, Corey Toole and Tom Wright in the back three.

On paper, this is a very capable, settled squad that presents depth and clear options in most positions. 

Squad: *denotes new signing

Props: Allan Alaalatoa, Fred Kaihea, Sefo Kautai, Rhys van Nek, Blake Schoupp, James Slipper, Harry Vella

Hookers: Lachlan Lonergan, Connal McInerney, Billy Pollard

Locks: Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Cadeyrn Neville, Lachlan Shaw*, Darcy Swain

Loose Forwards: Jahrome Brown, Charlie Cale, Ed Kenned, Luke Reimer, Rory Scott, Rob Valetini

Scrumhalves: Harrison Goddard*, Ryan Lonergan, Klayton Thorn

Flyhalves: Jack Debreczeni, Noah Lolesio

Centres: Austin Anderson*, Hudson Creighton, Len Ikitau, Ollie Sapsford, Tamati Tua

Wingers & Fullbacks: Andy Muirhead, Ben O’Donnell, Corey Toole, Tom Wright, Declan Meredith

Strengths & Weaknesses

The Brumbies look like they are in a promising position – until you remember how last year played out and the issues that were exposed. While nearly the entire squad remains, the shortcomings that were exposed last year will happen again if not addressed.

For all the talk of the Brumbies’ depth, it is important to remember that the second and third-string players struggled, being beaten in Christchurch against a similarly second-string Crusaders side before being blown off the park by the Western Force late last year.

Whether that came down to cohesion issues, disruption due to the Wallabies or another reason, if the Brumbies want to challenge for the title they cannot have repeats from the extended squad. 

It was also not helped that, despite an excellent game plan, in-game adaptation has proven difficult for them when they come up against a side that has done their homework and knows how to execute it effectively.

They have an established, set way to play, and for the opposition, the real challenge in beating them is finding a way to play better than what the Brumbies are best at; set piece, rolling mauls, and forward dominance. 

Teams like the Drua and the Hurricanes asked pressing questions and the Brumbies were able to answer them and get the results, but when they came up against the strongest sides in the Crusaders and Chiefs, it was a different proposition.

Those sides know how to shut down forward momentum can match the Brumbies for firepower, and know how to step up a gear and turn strategies inside out. The Brumbies have enough class to put up a fight, but against these teams, they are still to find that ability to step up, find a suitable method of execution to counteract their threats and adapt to win. 

The good news is that should they find that final gear and manage their depth well, they can mount a strong title challenge. Having a non-New Zealand side that is capable of doing that changes the narrative surrounding the competition. 

They have the most dangerous attacking player in Australian rugby in Ikitau, surrounded by promising backline options that have proven they have the ticker to excel. 

Eleven Wallabies are in their forward pack alone, including some of their strongest stars in Alaalatoa, Frost, Hooper and John Eales medalist winner Valetini. 

Lastly, like Rob Penney in Christchurch, Larkham has surrounded himself with coaching staff who are well-versed in what Brumbies rugby is and represents. Australia has many prospects that offer opportunities in 2024, but on paper right now, the Brumbies still look set to be the team to lead the charge. 

Fixtures

The Brumbies will enjoy an encouraging schedule, facing a combination of unpredictable opponents and competition heavyweights in their opening rounds. Making the trip to Melbourne in round one, they will face the Chiefs during the Super Round, likely the blockbuster match of the weekend. 

Following the hosting of the Force in Round 3, they will enjoy a few weeks of very winnable fixtures to ease into the season, heading to New Zealand to face the Highlanders and hosting Moana Pasifika. Ahead of the bye, they will have their two biggest rivals back to back, facing the Reds at Suncorp before hosting the Waratahs.

Following the bye however, the Brumbies will have three of their next four matches at home, but they will come up against some of the toughest opposition in the Drua, Hurricanes and Crusaders. They will also travel to Sydney for Culture Round, before finishing off the season with the Rebels, and a banana-skin final trip to Perth to face the Force, where both they and other opposition beforehand have tripped up at season’s end.

While there are periods of difficult clashes back-to-back, the Brumbies find themselves in a positive position of facing nearly all their toughest opponents at home, which given their record bodes well for them to not only build momentum but pick up several huge scalps to build into a title challenge.

With change afoot in New Zealand, there is enough to suggest that the Brumbies can improve on previous years with this favourable draw.

Predicted Finish: 3rd

The Brumbies are still searching for that final gear, but there is enough in this squad and this fixture series to suggest they will improve on their regular season results. 

Whether they can clear the semi-final hurdle and make it to a grand final – and win it – is another question entirely.