JuJu Smith-Schuster among Patriots’ X-factors against the Commanders

The Patriots will enter their Week 9 game against Washington without its most productive wide receiver.

If the New England Patriots ever want to turn their 2023 season around, they better start quickly. Luckily for them, the next opportunity should be a winnable one: the 3-5 Washington Commanders will visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

The Commanders do have a better record than the Patriots, but an argument can be made that their season thus far has looked quite similar to New England’s: there were some close wins, blowout losses, and inconsistent play especially on one side of the ball (in Washington’s case the defense). At least on paper, the 2-6 Patriots should have a realistic chance of coming away victoriously.

For that to happen, though, the club needs to show some marked improvement compared to last week’s 31-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins. It also needs the game’s X-factors to perform in its favor.

So, with that said, let’s take a look at who we project as some of the most important pieces for New England this week, starting at the wide receiver position.

X-factor: JuJu Smith-Schuster

When Kendrick Bourne went down with a knee injury in the fourth quarter on Sunday, the Patriots lost their most productive pass catcher of the season and Mac Jones’ favorite target. In order to replace him, they turned to a player who himself had missed the previous two games due to a concussion: JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The offseason free agency addition had had a quiet season up until that point, and he also did not light the world on fire versus Miami; he caught one pass for a 3-yard touchdown. With Bourne not playing this week — in fact, he will miss the remainder of the year with a torn ACL — Smith-Schuster will get another chance to expand his role.

The expectation is that the 26-year-old will take over the Z-receiver role played by Bourne before his injury, and fill a starting role in the offense alongside rookie standout Demario Douglas and a quasi-new perimeter target taking over for DeVante Parker (more on them in a second). How Smith-Schuster will look in that role remains to be seen, but given Bourne’s production as a go-to player for Jones he will get his fair share of opportunities.

Being another week removed from his concussion, and practicing in that role throughout the week, should help Smith-Schuster. What also should is the fact that Washington’s top three cornerbacks have had their ups and downs so far this season:

Smith-Schuster will not be the only wide receiver the Patriots and their quarterback will rely on versus Washington, but he is likely to be featured quite actively. If that indeed happens, he needs to prove himself worthy of such role and show improvement compared to his first few games in a Patriots uniform.

Other X-factors this week

The depth wide receivers: Kendrick Bourne may not be the only wide receiver to miss this week’s game. The aforementioned DeVante Parker, who left the game in Miami with a concussion, has also yet to be cleared for a return. While that might still happen before Sunday, all signs point to him being out. If so, the Patriots might also give increased reps to their depth options at wide receiver — namely, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor and Kayshon Boutte.

Mike Gesicki: Down Bourne and Parker, the Patriots will not just rely on their relatively unproved backup wide receivers but also the tight end position. One player in particular who might be in line for an increased workload is Mike Gesicki. Not only has he had some promising moments this season, Washington’s defense is also ranked only 23rd in the NFL in DVOA versus the tight end position. While Hunter Henry and Pharaoh Brown will continue to stay involved as more well-rounded options at the position, Gesicki’s receiving prowess might come into focus given the circumstances.

J.C. Jackson: The Commanders’ starting wide receiver trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel is quite solid, and therefore will be a challenge for a New England wide receiver. And while this also means that Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones and Myles Bryant will have to bring their A-game, our eyes will be on J.C. Jackson. Jackson is likely to draw one of the two perimeter wideouts — i.e. McLaurin or Dotson — a week after a disappointing outing versus the Dolphins. The Patriots need him to bounce back.

Anfernee Jennings, Keion White and Jahlani Tavai: The Commanders’ most productive player on offense is actually not one of McLaurin, Dotson or Samuel, but rather running back Brian Robinson Jr., who leads the team in touches (108), yards (517) and touchdowns (6) as a legitimate dual option. If the Patriots can limit his ability to deliver yards on the ground, however, the playing field should tilt into the defense’s favor. The three primary outside linebackers in particular will play an important role: not only is edge integrity a crucial part of New England’s defensive structure, Robinson Jr. has also been highly productive when able to get outside the tackles. In total, he has carried the ball 38 times for 181 yards — an average of 4.8 yards per carry — and a pair of touchdowns.

Cole Strange and Sidy Sow: Washington parted ways with its two sack leaders via trade this week, but they still have some disruptive players along their defensive line. The two that stand out are former first-round draft picks Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. The two have combined to pressure opposing quarterbacks 35 times from the interior, which accounts for 52.3 percent of Washington’s pass rush production without Chase Young and Montez Sweat. New England’s guards in particular will have their hands full: Cole Strange because he might be played next to a new left tackle; Sidy Sow because he is still a rookie.

Christian Barmore: No quarterback in the NFL has been sacked more than Washington’s Sam Howell: teams have taken him down 41 times this year. His sack rate of 11.7 percent, meanwhile, ranks second in the league. The Patriots’ edge pass rush and potential blitz packages will play a part in keeping this going, but so will the interior led by Christian Barmore: the third-year man is currently playing the best football of his career, and might feast against an interior O-line that has experienced some personnel changes over the last few weeks. If he can do that, it might be a long day at the office for the Commanders’s young QB.

Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo: Sam Howell has played some solid football so far this season, but here’s the thing: Sunday’s game will still only be his 10th career start in the NFL. Despite being in his second season, he is a rather inexperienced player — something the Patriots know how to use to their advantage. Expect their de facto defensive coordinators, Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo, to sprinkle in some exotic looks early and often in order to test Howell’s decision-making and play-recognition skills.