Let’s run out the trade value charts again.
It turns out the Carolina Panthers big trade to move one spot up and into the first round on Thursday night was just a harbinger of the draft strategy that general manager Dan Morgan honed while watching his former boss Scott Fitterer at work. Three more trades occurred in the second and third rounds last night that saw the Panthers bouncing all over the draft board.
Ultimately, they walked away with their RB1 in Jonathon Brooks and a linebacker they apparently liked in Trevin Wallace. That, after cycling through a dizzying series of picks like they were playing three card monty with the rest of the league.
The Panthers have made four trades in this draft. Up to 32, down to 52, up to 46, and down to 72. That is one trade shy of tying the franchise record set during the 1995 NFL draft and tied during the 2021 NFL draft.
The following are their original assets they surrendered in these trades and the assets they now have either used or will begin the third day of the draft with.
They gave up picks no. 33, 65, and 142, and received picks no. 46, 72, 157, and a 2025 second round pick. They received and then traded away picks no. 52 and 155 in the middle of all of that.
Let’s run all of that through the three trade value charts we looked at yesterday morning for the Xavier Legette trade. I am going to account for the Rams 2nd round pick as a middle third round pick, no. 80 overall, following the convention that future picks are valued as one round lower than a current pick would be. I’m doing that so that there can be maths.
The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart
The Panthers gave up 880 points and received 889 points by the old trade chart. That difference balloons to a 239 point surplus when the 2025 2nd from the Rams matures to its full value. That is the equivalent of a seventh round pick this year or the 71st overall pick next year in favor of the Panthers, per this chart.
The Rich Hill trade value chart
The Panthers gave up 271.64 points and received 260.68 points by the old trade chart. That is an almost 11 point deficit for the Panthers, but that difference balloons to a 54.21 point surplus once the 2025 2nd from the Rams matures to its full value. That is the equivalent of the 81st overall pick next year in favor of the Panthers, per this chart.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart
The Panthers gave up 2602 points and received 3110 points by the cap based trade chart. That is a 508 point difference in favor of the Panthers, or almost a full fifth of what they gave up. That difference grows to a 767 point surplus when the 2025 2nd from the Rams matures to its full value. That is the equivalent of the 137th overall pick this year or the 82nd overall pick next year in favor of the Panthers, per this chart.
What did we learn?
We learned two things. First, Dan Morgan isn’t afraid to move wherever and however he wants on the draft board. Second, and most importantly, always try to trade with the Los Angeles Rams.
After all of the wheeling and dealing in this year and in years passed, the Panthers will enter Day Three of the 2024 NFL draft with at least one pick in each of the seven rounds of this draft and one pick in each of the seven rounds of the 2025 NFL draft. That’s not too bad for a franchise that has been through a lot of self-instigated upheaval and still doesn’t know if it is in the middle of a full rebuild.
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