Swimming

Data Visualization Details Close Race For A Top 10 Finish At 2024 Women’s NCAAs

March 15, 2024

2024 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

March 20-23, 2024
Gabrielsen Natatorium, Athens, Georgia
Short Course Yards (25 yards)
Official Psych Sheets (with cutlines)
Invited swimmers by team (not including relay swimmers)
Alternates list
Eligible Relays

The 2024 Women’s NCAA Championships are right around the corner, kicking off next week in Athens, Georgia. Last week, we scored out the official psych sheets, but now let’s take a look at what it would look like visually if everything happened as the psych sheets project.

Neither meets nor races are won on paper; however, this type of data is still valuable because it gives spectators an idea of what to expect in the standings race, as well as teams’ various strengths and weaknesses.

Note that no matter what, this meet will not play out exactly by the psych sheets as they do not include diving.

Division I Women’s NCAA Championship Scored Psych Sheet: Top 20 Teams

The Virginia Cavaliers look set to win their fourth-straight NCAA title. The scored psych sheets expect a 100-point margin of victory. They’re expected to score 469.5 points to Texas’ 369.5, which would earn the Longhorns their third consecutive runner-up finish.

Texas is expected to be in a tight race for second with Florida even without factoring in diving, which has been a strength for both teams this season. Texas has four divers qualified while Florida has two, which could be the factor that gives the Longhorns the advantage.

According to the psych sheets, it’s the Longhorns’ 200 fly crew that will be difference makers again this year. Texas is projected to overtake Florida in the race for 2nd in that final individual event and beat the Gators by just three points.

Texas and Florida are the only teams besides Florida expected to break 300 points. Tennessee is set to hold onto 4th for the majority of the meet. The Vols are on their own island as they’re projected to be 72.5 points behind Florida and 80 points ahead of USC and Stanford, who are tied for 5th by the scored psychs.

Beyond the battle for 2nd place, there are tight races expected even further down the standings. A mere 16 points separate 8th place NC State from 11th place Indiana with Louisville and Ohio State sandwiched between them. All four teams are vying to retain a place in the top 10.

Now, let’s take a closer look at that top-10 race.

Division I Women’s NCAA Championship Scored Psych Sheet: Top 10 Teams

Even without Indiana, projected to finish just 1.5 points behind Ohio State, this zoomed-in look shows how chaotic the race for a top-10 finish will be.

Though Virginia is expected to win by a large margin, they aren’t expected to hold the lead the entire meet. At the beginning of day 2, the Gators’ 500 freestyle depth should move them into first place. The Cavaliers should regain the lead by the end of the night thanks to their sprint freestylers (namely Gretchen Walsh and Jasmine Nocentini) leading the charge in the 50 free and 200 free relay. After that brief interlude, Virginia should hold the lead through the end of the meet.

Aside from Texas taking control of 2nd at the end of the meet, the three teams directly behind Virginia (Texas, Florida, and Tennessee) project to stay relatively stable through the meet. But as shown by viewing the top-10 by rank rather than score, 5th through 10th will change with almost every event.

Division I Women’s NCAA Championship Scored Psych Sheet: Top 10 Teams By Rank

This is where we really see each team’s strength come into play. At the beginning of the meet, the sprint relays and events like the 50 free and 100 fly keep Louisville in the fight for the top 5. But their lack of depth in the other disciplines makes it so they can’t hold onto that position and fall in standings as the meet goes on.

Meanwhile, Stanford projects to be barely in the top 10 heading into the final day of the meet. They’ve got several strong events on Day 4 though, that propel them into a tie for 5th with USC.

2024 NCAAS – PROJECTED TEAM STANDINGS

		SCORED PSYCH	INDIVIDUAL POINTS	RELAY POINTS
1	Virginia	469.5	275.5	194
2	Texas	369.5	233.5	136
3	Florida	366.5	212.5	154
4	Tennessee	294	154	140
5	Southern California	213.5	87.5	126
6	Stanford	213.5	149.5	64
7	California, Berkeley	201	101	100
8	North Carolina State	175	89	86
9	Louisville	169	81	88
10	Ohio State	160.5	68.5	92
11	Indiana	159	79	80
12	Georgia	140	102	38
13	Michigan	118	40	78
14	Wisconsin, Madison	84	56	28
15	Texas A&M	72.5	46.5	26
16	Arizona State	59	49	10
17	Auburn	53	13	40
18	Alabama	34	12	22
19	Duke	26	22	4
20	North Carolina, Chapel Hill	25.5	7.5	18
21	Pennsylvania	22	22	0
22	VA Tech	19	7	12
23	California, Los Angeles	18	18	0
24	South Carolina, Columbia	16	16	0
25	Louisiana State	14	0	14
26	Pittsburgh	11	11	0
27	Cincinnati	11	11	0
28	Princeton	9	9	0
29	Minnesota	9	9	0
30	Northwestern	5	5	0
31	California Baptist	4.5	4.5	0
32	Arizona	4	4	0
33	Nevada, Reno	4	4	0
34	Florida State	3	3	0
35	Washington State	3	3	0
36	Liberty	3	3	0
37	Nebraska	2	2	0
38	Akron	2	2	0
39	Arkansas	2	2	0
40	Miami (Ohio)	0.5	0.5	0