Daily Slop – 23 Apr 24: A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch

A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East and the NFL in general

Commanders links

Articles

Washington Post (paywall)

This QB draft class could be historically great — or a historic letdown

Whether this class of quarterbacks will be memorable for its greatness or for its great disappointment remains up for debate, and the results won’t be known for several years. But for now, at least, there are reasons to be hopeful.

“Last year I … talked about how the 2024 draft really has a chance to be a special class,” said former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik, now an NFL analyst for SiriusXM. “I still think it does.”

If six quarterbacks are chosen in the opening round, that would match the record set in 1983. The six first-rounders that year included three eventual Hall of Famers in John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino. The others were Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien. (The opening round had just 28 picks then, while this year’s will have 32.)

Penix and Nix and not certain first-rounders. But there are enough quarterback-needy teams — even after a flurry of trades and free agent deals this offseason involving high-profile veterans — that it’s not out of the question they could be taken in the opening round.

There never has been a draft in which quarterbacks were taken with the first four picks, according to NFL Research. There have been three drafts in which quarterbacks where chosen with first three selections. It happened in 1971 with Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini. It happened in 1999 with Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith. And it happened in 2021 with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance.

“In talking to coaches and executives around the league,” Jeremiah said last week, “they’re, like, overwhelmingly convinced around the league that this is Jayden Daniels. … [But] I think anybody that says they know exactly what Washington is doing is lying because I don’t think Adam’s saying a word.”

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ESPN

Shaka Toney, reinstated from gambling ban, cut by Commanders

Washington signed three defensive ends in free agency, re-signed a fourth and have two second-year ends also on their roster. The Commanders have shown an interest in drafting an edge rusher as well, possibly in the second or third round. They also have a new owner, general manager and coach — none of whom were around when Washington drafted Toney. All of that made Toney expendable.

Washington drafted Toney, who played at Penn State, in the seventh round in 2021. Toney played in 26 games in two seasons, with one start; he recorded 1.5 sacks and 16 tackles.

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Podcasts & videos

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Locked on Commanders: Washington Commanders NFL Draft Trade Probabilities | J.J. McCarthy’s Analytics Advantage | Mailbag

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NFL league links

Articles

The Athletic (paywall)

2024 NFL Draft confidential: Coaches pick Nabers over Harrison, Caleb Williams development and more

came away from the NFL Scouting Combine thinking that the two closest players to sure things were Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washington’s Rome Odunze. In Harrison, you have the son of an NFL receiving great and the most complete of what has been a remarkable run of Buckeye star wideouts over the past decade — many of whom have shined in the NFL. I’d assumed he would be the No. 1 guy on everyone’s wide receivers board.

But apparently, that is not the case. At all.

“(Harrison’s) not No. 1 to me,” said a veteran NFL receivers coach, whose team is in the market for another top receiver, and whom we’ll ID as WR Coach 1. “(LSU’s Malik) Nabers is the No. 1 on my list and I think he is on a lot of people’s lists. He’s just different to me. I don’t think it’s anything toward Marvin, it’s just really that Nabers is that good. His skills with the ball in his hands are really different. His acceleration is just different. His explosive is different. He tracks the ball really well. He’s a smaller guy but he can still play outside. He’s rare in a lot of ways. He’s got some Ja’Marr Chase in him, some DJ Moore skills. I hesitate to say this because Tyreek Hill’s speed is just so different from anybody in the league, but Nabers has some of that kind of burst and just so explosive off the line of scrimmage.

“He’s as fast as the person chasing him. He’s gonna run away from whoever. If Deion was chasing him, he’d go 4.21 or whatever. He’s the best WR prospect since Chase and on tape, I think he’s even more impressive. This dude is different.”

Another long-time NFL assistant, who has coached receivers and been an NFL offensive coordinator, agreed that Nabers was the top receiver prospect.

“It’s Nabers and then there’s a gap,” said Offensive Assistant 1. “He is the best wide receiver in the draft in a couple of years, maybe more. He is Tyreek Hill combined with both of those San Francisco guys (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). He is so explosive. He has a second gear. He can stop on a dime. He breaks tackles. You can’t jam him because he’s just too quick and if you miss at all, he’s gonna outrun you. He’s really competitive but he can be a pain in the ass.”

The consensus: Led by Nabers, Harrison and Odunze, this is overall an excellent group of receivers, much better than last year’s class (Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first off the board at No. 20).

“After them, there is a big drop-off.”

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ESPN

NFL Draft Day Predictor 2024: Forecasting Round 1, QB picks

Which QB is the most likely pick at No. 2?

Jayden Daniels, though there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty. The model gives the LSU quarterback a 49% chance to be the selection at No. 2, with North Carolina’s Drake Maye at 21% and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at 15%, respectively. The remaining possibilities consist of Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. — probabilities that are almost certainly inflated. Any model like this requires uncertainty, though there is little actual doubt that Williams will go No. 1 and the Commanders will take a QB at No. 2.

The model believes Daniels has the edge — and he is probably an odds-on favorite if we mentally redistribute the Williams and Harrison Jr. probabilities — but it’s no slam dunk.

What is McCarthy’s most likely draft range — and landing spot?

Of the QBs expected to go early in the first round, McCarthy has the widest range. He could be selected as early as No. 2 overall (though less likely than Daniels or Maye) and has at least a 4% chance to be selected at every spot after that up until pick No. 9. The reason, of course, is trades. Yes, there are QB-needy teams at Nos. 2, 3 and 6 (maybe even No. 7?), and those are his most likely landing spots — but everyone else is a potential trade-down team.

McCarthy’s most likely landing spot is No. 6, where he has a 31% chance to be selected. While there’s plenty of speculation about trades at Nos. 4 and 5, McCarthy could fall right into the Giants’ lap if one doesn’t happen.

There’s a 92% chance that McCarthy is gone within the top 10. That leaves an 8% chance at a potential Vikings coup at No. 11, in which Minnesota would land McCarthy without having to trade up and likely having to part with its other first-round pick (No. 23).

Which fringe players could sneak into Round 1?

Let’s look at players with a 5% to 20% chance of going in Round 1 — long shots but not impossible. Two wideouts lead this group in South Carolina’s Xavier Legette (19%) and Florida State’s Keon Coleman (13%). Other names include Missouri cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (12%), Western Michigan edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland (11%), Washington offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten (9%), Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (9%) and Michigan running back Blake Corum (6%).

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NBC Sports

The 2024 NFL Draft class features several sons of ex-NFL stars

There are eight draft prospects whose fathers made at least one Pro Bowl. The record for sons of ex-Pro Bowlers selected in a single draft is four.

The 2024 NFL Draft could be a record-setting one for sons of ex-players.

There were 11 prospects whose fathers played in the NFL that were drafted in 2020, setting a common draft era record. But that mark could be challenged this year after 12 sons of former players attended the 2024 combine, per NFL Research.

The 2024 group features sons of several ex-stars, too.

Leading the way, of course, is Ohio State wideout and projected top-five pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s the son of Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Also among this year’s wide receiver prospects are USC’s Brenden Rice, the son of Hall of Fame wideout Jerry Rice, and Rice’s Luke McCaffrey, the son of three-time Super Bowl champion wideout Ed McCaffrey and the brother of San Francisco 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey.

In all, there are eight prospects this year whose fathers made at least one Pro Bowl. According to the NFL, the record for sons of ex-Pro Bowlers taken in one draft is four, which happened in 2011.

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Deadspin

Reports: Broncos land QB Zach Wilson in trade with Jets

The Denver Broncos are acquiring quarterback Zach Wilson and a seventh-round draft pick in a trade with the New York Jets, according to multiple reports Monday.

The Jets will receive a sixth-round pick (the 203rd overall selection) and agreed to split Wilson’s $5.5 million salary for the coming season, per reports

The Broncos already have millions invested in the position. They took a cap hit of $85 million to part ways with Russell Wilson when they released him.

He since signed with the Steelers, with Pittsburgh paying $1.2 million for 2024 because the Broncos are obligated to pay $38 million guaranteed in their five-year contract.

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