Christmas Eve NFL Liveblog: Surging Bengals Battle Patriots

‘Twas the day before Christmas, and all through the league
All the big teams were dealing with short-week fatigue
So pour yourself a big old glass of eggnog
And settle in to follow this special liveblog!

I hope everyone’s staying warm from the storm that’s pounding the northeast this weekend.  I’ve flown out to Buffalo for this week’s blog where I can confirm that yes, it’s very, very cold.  The combination of the weather and the quarterback injuries throughout the league has caused projected point totals to drop right along with the mercury, with snow games (or, at least, high-wind games) expected in a half-dozen matchups today. So, in other words, it’s perfect football weather, even if it’s the wrong day of the week for some professional football action.

And, because we’re live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation — either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno, or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live. Questions, comments, and particularly clever quips will find their way into the liveblog proper as we have a running conversation throughout gameday.

It’s a slightly diluted schedule this week, with three games being saved for a special Christmas Day triple-header.  Of course, we strive to be inclusive here, so we should note that the Broncos-Rams game, which should just last three hours, will instead feel like it will last eight entire nights!  But, before that, we have a full slate for you today, including!

Early Window

• Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
• Buffalo Bills (-8) @ Chicago Bears
• Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ New England Patriots
• Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
• Houston Texans (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
• New York Giants (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings
• New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Cleveland Browns
• Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Late Window

• Washington Commanders (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers
• Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

We close out the night with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception — an occasion which has become a bit more somber with the passing of Franco Harris this week.  The Discord server will cover that, but until then, grab some hot chocolate and let the games begin!

Friday Evening: Early Window Storylines

Due to the Jalen Hurts’ injury and the inevitability of the Eagles winning not just the division but the bye week, the Bengals-Patriots showdown gets the headline and the picture for this week. Don’t count Cincinnati out for the bye week in the AFC — they’ve weathered the storm of their brutal end-of-season schedule, have a win over Kansas City, and can do the same to Buffalo next week. But first, they must get past the Patriots, who are smoking and sputtering their way to the finish line. How do they pick themselves up after the all-time boner of an ending to the Raiders game?  With the Pats likely needing two wins in their last three games — and facing a devilish Bengals – Dolphins –  Bills finish — New England needs some magic to revive their playoff chances.  Well, ’tis the season…

The Chiefs are also in the thick of that bye week race at the moment, but right now, they’d just settle for playing like the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve been floundering a little over the past month, at least, by the standards they set for themselves. They lost to the Bengals, nearly let the Broncos come back on them, and only beat the Texans on the last play of the game. They need to get things in gear if they want to make noise in the postseason, and that can start this week against a Seahawks team that has fallen sharply since their trip to Germany earlier this year.  There’s still plenty of time for Seattle to right the ship and make the playoffs, but they need to start playing like the team that rocketed out to an early divisional lead, even if they don’t necessarily need to win this week.

The Lions-Panthers game is the biggest for playoff odds, by our numbers, which makes sense. Both teams are trailing in their respective playoff races, but are coming on strong down the stretch and are trying to sneak their way in with strong finishes to their season.  This isn’t quite an elimination game, as both the NFC wildcard and NFC South races are complicated enough that there are reasonable paths to success for either Detroit or Carolina even with a loss this week. But in terms of sheer playoff leverage, it doesn’t get bigger than this.

We mentioned the Bengals trying to win the bye week — but first, they must win the division. The Ravens might have a thing or two to say about that, but they continue to be without Lamar Jackson; Tyler Huntley will make his third straight start.  That’s almost as many as Desmond Ridder, who gets his second start for a Falcons team mostly playing out the stretch, but still with one eye on the mess that is the NFC South race.  

Elsewhere, the Browns and Saints play in one of the weather games of the week — gusts of 50 MPH are expected as Cleveland is hit with the bomb cyclone.  The Bills will look to clinch the AFC East in similarly frigid conditions against the Bears.  Vikings-Giants may well be a first-round playoff preview. And the Titans prepare for life after Ryan Tannehill against the suddenly feisty Texans.

Saturday Evening: Playoffs?!

We’re getting down to brass tacks in a number of scenarios.

The Jaguars win over the Jets on Thursday almost guarantees we’ll get Titans-Jaguars as our Sunday Night game in Week 18.  That game will be for the AFC South title unless the Titans win out and the Jaguars lose to the Texans next week.  Color me skeptical.

There are now 16 remaining scenarios in the AFC South.

The #Titans win nine of them. The #Jaguars win the other seven.

The TEN-JAX winner is champion, unless TEN otherwise wins out and JAX loses to Houston. pic.twitter.com/ZiK9nqYpQ5

— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 23, 2022

The other prime candidate? The Ravens-Bengals matchup, would could conceivably be for the AFC North title.  That’s less guaranteed; it only happens in 26 of 32 scenarios. But with Ryan Tannehill out for the year, it would likely be the better matchup on paper, as long as it ends up mattering.

There are now 32 remaining outcomes in the AFC North, excluding ties.

The #Bengals win 20
The #Ravens win 12. pic.twitter.com/jR5xxux3sd

— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 19, 2022

Other games have huge potential playoff swings.  The biggest one today, as previously mentioned, is Lions-Panthers.  The Lions go to 55% to make the playoffs with a win, and fall to 16% with a loss.  The Panthers are in rougher shape, but see a similarly large gap — 22% with a win, 7% with a loss.  That’s a lot of playoff leverage for a game between two teams currently on the outside looking in! There may not be room for all four cat teams to make the postseason, and this catfight will tell us a lot about who will be the odd one out.

Your relevant scenarios remaining for this week!

Clinching Scenarios

• Philadelphia can clinch the bye week with a win.
   
• Dallas can clinch a top-five seed with a win and a Giants loss
• Dallas can clinch a top-six seed with a win or a Commanders loss
   
• N.Y. Giants can clinch a top-six seed with a win and losses by the Commanders, Lions and Seahawks
• N.Y. Giants can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by just two of the Commanders, Lions and Seahawks.
   
• Buffalo can clinch the AFC East (and a top-three seed) with a win or a Dolphins loss
• Buffalo can clinch a top-five seed with a win, or a Dolphins loss, or losses by the Ravens and Patriots plus three of the Chargers(x3), Broncos (x2), Panthers (x2), Steelers, Texans, Buccaneers, Saints or Seahawks.  Strength of victory scenarios be crazy.
   
• L.A. Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by the Patriots and Raiders
   
• Cincinnati can clinch a top-five seed with a win and a Chargers loss
• Cincinnati can clinch a top-six seed with a win.  They already clinched a playoff berth this week when the Jets fell.
   
• Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Dolphins or Patriots loss.  They can also clinch with losses by the Patriots, Titans, Browns, Raiders and Colts.

Elimination Scenarios

• Dallas can be eliminated from the NFC East with a loss.
   
• N.Y. Giants can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a loss and a Cowboys win.
   
• Washington can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a loss or a Cowboys win.
• Washington can be eliminated from a top-six seed with a loss and a Giants win.
   
• Minnesota can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss or an Eagles win.
   
• Detroit can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss and a Giants win.
   
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss or a Giants win.
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Commanders win.
   
• San Francisco can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss or an Eagles win.
   
• Seattle can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss and a Giants win.
   
• New Orleans can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Buccaneers win.
   
• Atlanta can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and wins by either the Buccaneers or both the Panthers and Saints.
   
• Miami can be eliminated from the AFC East with a loss or a Bills win.
   
• New England can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a loss and a win by either the Chargers or Ravens.
• New England can be eliminated from a top-six seed with a loss, a Chargers win, and either a Ravens or Saints win.
   
• N.Y. Jets can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a win by the Chargers or both the Patriots and Dolphins
• N.Y. Jets can be eliminated from a top-six seed with either wins by the Chargers and one of the Ravens or Saints, or wins by the Patriots, Dolphins, and either the Chargers or Ravens.  It’s complicated.
• N.Y. Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs with wins by the Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins and either the Ravens or Saints.
   
• Las Vegas can be eliminated from a top-six seed with a loss and a win from one of the Patriots, Chargers or Dolphins
• Las Vegas can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, a Chargers win and either a Patriots or Dolphins win.
   
• Baltimore can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss or a Buffalo win.
• Baltimore can be eliminated from a top-two seed with a loss and a Chiefs win.
   
• Cleveland can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, or wins by the Chargers, Ravens and Dolphins
   
• Pittsburgh can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or wins by the Chargers and Dolphins

Quite a bit!  We’ll clear some chaff today and have shorter scenarios in the future.