Since we don’t know how the Patriots’ selections will actually do, here’s a pessimistic view of every pick.
The draft was this past weekend, and the truth is, we’re not going to know whether or not these guys are good picks for at least a few years. So, the best thing to do is take a measured approach and just be happy that the New England Patriots tried to address some areas of need without knowing whether or not those guys are going to actually make the team better, right?
Absolutely not! What fun would that be?
For my two articles, I decided to go in a little different direction than usual. I have already given my grades for all of these picks, so I decided to take a look at the optimistic and the pessimistic view for each of the Patriots picks
The pessimistic view is that they all might have fatal flaws, but I’m going to try to be a little more specific than that. Whether you liked or didn’t like a pick, though, hopefully this article and its counterpart will give you some ammunition in any conversations you have about the draft.
Let’s get into it.
QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
During his time at UNC, Maye was too inconsistent with the football and had a tendency of making bad plays even worse. A wrong read turned into a forced pass, which could lead to an interception. There were times when he played hero ball and seemingly tried to throw the ball through defenders because of his arm strength. If he doesn’t fix all that, there are going to be serious issues at the next level.
The inaccuracy and poor decision making might make him a quarterback that looks flashy and makes splash plays from time to time, but simply turns the ball over too much. At the quarterback position, you need a guy that can do things no one else can do, but you also need someone who is going to take care of the football.
If he doesn’t do that, nothing else matters.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk (Washington)
The NFL has turned into a speed game: if you don’t have speed, you can not be an elite skill position player. The Patriots used the 37th pick in the draft on a guy who just isn’t fast enough to serve as a traditional outside receiver in the NFL.
In fact, nothing that Polk does is truly elite. He’s good at everything, but not great at any one thing. He looks like a competent receiver, but if he can’t create any separation, then he will be strictly a contested catch guy, and that doesn’t bode well for his future prospects.
His route running is good but not elite, and for a guy without top end speed, it will have to improve against NFL-caliber competition. He still does a nice job of making tough catches and fighting through contact, but if he can’t improve on some of the finer aspects of his game, he might be relegated to little more than a package player.
OT Caedan Wallace (Penn State)
The Patriots have a real need at left tackle. They had the draft assets to move up and take a higher-rated prospect earlier in the draft, or take more of a project whose floor might be lower but whose ceiling is also higher.
Instead, they went with a “safer” pick. That pick, however, is a guy who never played left tackle in college, and wasn’t a super dominant right tackle either. The prospect of him moving to the left is a complete projection.
G Layden Robinson (Texas A&M)
After already bringing Jake Andrews, Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi aboard last year, the Patriots once again used a mid-round pick on an interior offensive lineman. They are stockpiling guys on the inside, and it remains to be seen how any of them turn out.
For years, they were able to take guys who were not highly-drafted and turn them into solid starters up front. Nowadays, they keep spending draft capital on developmental players such as Robinson — a guard who was projected to remain on the board until far later on Day 3 — in the middle rounds.
WR Javon Baker (Central Florida)
Even after transferring from Alabama to Central Florida, Baker remained inconsistent. He had a bunch of drops, and had a tendency to make plays that should be easy a lot more difficult than they needed to be. He also lacks the breakaway speed to truly be a dominant vertical threat, which is where he excelled in college. Theoretically, he should be able to play the X, but without consistency, it is going to be tough to depend on him.
Between the drops, the lack of speed, and the ups and downs, one has to wonder whether he will ever develop into the outside receiver the Patriots need him to be.
CB Marcellas Dial (South Carolina)
Dial is stiff-hipped and is going to struggle covering NFL receivers 1-on-1. He may have to transition to safety with the Patriots, and, although he has some of the traits to maybe be able to do that, he has never actually played that position. He also has had deflections the last few years, but didn’t force any turnovers last year. His best bet to make the team might be on special teams.
QB Joe Milton III (Tennessee)
To steal a line from the great Alex Barth: If you need someone to throw the ball 80 yards, Joe Milton will throw it 80 yards. If you need someone to throw the ball 5 yards, Joe Milton will throw it 80 yards.
Milton is wildly inconsistent, and his accuracy is all over the place. Between his stints at Michigan and Tennessee, he has been in college for a long time, and, while he may have progressed a bit since being there, if a guy is a project at 24 after playing college football for so long, there’s a good chance that he’s never going to develop.
There’s also the question of how this pick could impact Drake Maye. Maye has a great arm, and is an exciting prospect, and then the Patriots draft a guy like Milton, whose upside is just his arm and athleticism. It may not take some of the shine off of Maye, but why even take that chance? If everything goes well, you’re drafting someone to be a backup at a position where the backup only plays if the starter gets hurt. In that case, chances are you are doomed either way.
With the amount of needs the Patriots had, they might have been better off drafting someone else.
TE Jaheim Bell (Florida State)
The main reason that Bell and his Florida State teammate Johnny Wilson fell in the draft is that teams don’t know what to do with them. In Bell’s case, he can’t be a true Y-tight end, he’s not a fullback, and he’s certainly not a wide receiver. He’s also not a tight end like Mike Gesicki, who can use his size, speed, and route running in the passing game to create mismatches. This leaves you with a tweener.
Maybe you can scheme some touches for him, but chances are that’s all you’re getting out of Bell. This pick is a complete shot in the dark. It’s a seventh round pick, so they shouldn’t be faulted for that, but there’s no reason to get overly excited either.
Obviously, Patriots fans will be hoping for the optimistic view of each pick to be the one that comes to fruition. Knowing the way the draft is, however, at least some will end up on the pessimistic side.
What will decide how successful this draft will be is which players end up on which side of this spectrum.
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