6 thoughts on the Patriots ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft

The Patriots are heading into arguably the biggest draft in recent franchise history.

The day has finally arrived. After months of hype and speculation, rumors and reports, the 2024 NFL Draft is here. For the New England Patriots, the first draft of the post-Bill Belichick era is shaping up to be a franchise-altering event.

The Patriots own the No. 3 overall pick, are in need of upgrades at some premium positions, and are seemingly willing to explore all avenues in an attempt to rebuild their roster. What they will do is anybody’s guess at this point in time; they do have some big decisions to make on Thursday night, however.

With all of that in mind, here are one reporter’s thoughts on the Patriots heading into Day 1 of the NFL Draft.

1. The Patriots are not oblivious to the fact that success in today’s NFL is directly tied to quarterback play. They saw it first-hand last year, when underwhelming performances by Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe cost them in multiple games. And while they have issues at several spots on their roster, quarterback clearly outshines all others.

The Patriots coming out of Round 1 without a new QB would therefore be a surprise.

Fact is, they have built the support system to follow the roster construction strategy mentioned by director of scouting Eliot Wolf — draft and develop — at the most important position on the roster. While there currently are question marks at left tackle and outside wide receiver in particular, they have the pieces in place to help a passer make necessary gains early on in his pro career either as a starter or a backup.

For starters, they built their offensive coaching staff with quarterback development in mind. Coordinator Alex Van Pelt has extensive experience playing and coaching the position; senior offensive assistant Ben McAdoo has extensive experience as a quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator; quarterbacks coach T.C. McCartney, while younger, has a serious résumé as well.

Those three were brought in to work with the next quarterback. And while it remains to be seen how successful they will end up being, the structure is in place.

The same also can be seen when looking at the roster. There are questions at the positions mentioned above, and the depth at running back, tight end and along the offensive line is also a potential area to be addressed. That said, New England has a veteran bridge starter in place in Jacoby Brissett, and some pass catchers — DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry among them — that can be classified as QB-friendly.

Is the Patriots’ roster ready to support a rookie quarterback? As of Thursday morning, there are legitimate concerns still. However, the foundation across the organization is not as bad as it might appear at first glance.

2. Eliot Wolf and the Patriots might want to take out a page of the Brandon Beane handbook on Thursday. The Buffalo Bills’ general manager spoke at the Scouting Combine earlier this year about his team being aggressive in the 2018 draft to trade up and select quarterback Josh Allen seventh overall. The move has worked out well for the franchise, with Allen one of the league’s top quarterbacks and the catalyst behind Buffalo’s resurgence to fill a post-Patriots void in the AFC East.

“We got criticized a little bit for how much we gave up for Josh,” Beane said. “And I’m like, ‘Well, if he doesn’t work out, I’m not going to be here anyway. And if he does work out, nobody’s going to give a s–t.’”

Already in position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, the Patriots would not have to give up extra assets to move up. They would, however, have to invest a premium pick in one player rather than turning it into multiple via a trade down.

That calculation between one being more valuable than the other relative to the team’s draft board is one that, ultimately, Wolf is responsible for. But as the Josh Allen example shows, having that one lottery ticket in hand and using it on the most important position in football can be a franchise-transforming event.

And regardless in which direction the franchise transforms, the gamble itself might be worth it in Wolf’s eyes because the alternative of not having a quarterback is the fast lane to dooming a regime.

3. The decision Eliot Wolf and company have to make is not as easy as stay equals quarterback and trade equals no quarterback. The Patriots very well might find willing trade partners in a range that either allows them to move back up again or possibly pick a quarterback in the position they end up in.

The quarterback most likely the target in that scenario would not be North Carolina’s Drake Maye — the favorite to come off the board third overall, to New England or another team — but rather Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. How the Patriots have them graded relative to one another only they know, but there is a chance they view McCarthy plus extra assets as a better haul than Maye without those.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to conviction as far as trading the third overall pick is concerned: the conviction that you will still get a highly-ranked quarterback, as is your goal.

Obviously, there are no assurances in the NFL Draft; moving out of No. 3 would therefore be a gamble. And if the Patriots feel in any way that such a move would leave them vulnerable when it comes to their chances of getting the fourth quarterback (who probably is McCarthy), they might prefer to err on the side of caution — either by not trading back too much, or by not trading back at all.

4. Brett Kollmann, who is one of the smartest and most approachable NFL analysts you can find, raised this point during a mock draft show on his YouTube channel recently. It’s not a new idea or concept, but one that frequently needs to be kept in mind: the Patriots don’t want to be in their current position again anytime soon, and they frankly might be too good to be.

This may sound counterintuitive given that the team is coming off a 4-13 season and is entering its first year without Bill Belichick. However, a look beyond the record shows a team capable of playing competitive football — probably not yet competitive for a playoff spot, but better than the product they put onto the field in 2023.

Just look at it this way: going against a fairly challenging schedule, New England ended up playing 11 one-score games last season. The team went 3-8 in those contests. There are several factors that contributed to that subpar performance, but a mix of quarterback play and injuries were the main culprits. Even marginal gains in those areas this season might lead to different results and, as a consequence, an inferior draft slot in 2025.

If the Patriots don’t end up drafting a quarterback high (i.e. the first round) they would only be pushing the problem into next year. If they end up sitting in the high single digits or early teens next spring, they might be in a significantly more challenging spot than this year.

5. To trade or not to trade is the big question in New England heading into the first round. Its answer may not come early on Thursday, though, but instead rather late. The Patriots, after all, have done exploratory work on possibly moving up from the 34th overall pick on Day 2 to get back into the tail-end of the first round (thus securing a contract that has a fifth-year option clause).

The belief is that this was more due diligence than anything else, but it shows that the team is prepared to manipulate the board to its liking. What might trigger such a move? A run at offensive tackles or wide receivers late on Day 1 might prompt New England to get aggressive; or some highly-ranked cornerbacks falling down the board as a result of runs like those.

Yes, the Patriots have plenty of holes to patch. In an effort do that, especially at premium positions, they might make moves that seem rather unconventional.

6. Ever since Bill Belichick and the Patriots announced their decision to part ways, the team’s ownership has taken on a more prominent role when it comes to football operations. That does not mean Robert and Jonathan Kraft are meddling in the decision making — they are not — but their presence is still quite noticeable.

The same is true for their desire to find “the guy” at quarterback. Robert Kraft himself said as much during the NFL annual meeting in March. And while that alone might not be influencing the process, Eliot Wolf and company know that they are under a watchful eye and considerable pressure in this year’s draft: not because ownership would like a QB, but because the third overall pick carries immense value to a club in rebuilding mode.

The ability to maximize that pick in a manner that can get New England back on track after its 4-13 campaign last year will directly impact the future of Wolf and his support staff. That is what the Kraft family — and the entire organization — should be clamoring for, not one particular position.