4 predictions for the Detroit Lions’ 2024 NFL Draft

Four predictions for the Detroit Lions’ 2024 NFL draft picks this weekend.

It’s time to make myself look foolish again.

[Editor’s note: A tradition unlike any other.]

The 2024 NFL Draft is almost upon us, and the intentions of the Detroit Lions are as secret as they have ever been. With the 29th pick, so few team needs, and an unpredictable general manager, the Lions could go in nearly hundreds of different directions just on the first night of the draft alone.

But part of the job of a sports writer is to make predictions. As senseless as that feels this year, I’m still going to do it. Don’t expect me to be right, as I batted about .500 (at best) last year. However, I do plan on offering sensible reasonings for my predictions, so these are not just baseless predictions.

Here are my four predictions for the Detroit Lions’ 2024 NFL Draft.

The Lions will trade down in the first round

This is part hope, part prediction. Personally, I think the best way to maximize the value of the 29th pick is to trade down. Plus, with limited draft capital—including a gaping hope between picks 73 and 164—adding more bullets to the chamber makes sense.

Beyond that, I think the Lions have left enough hints to suggest this is a real possibility. Put aside all of pre-apologies to fans about potentially trading out of the first round, Lions general manager Brad Holmes almost seemed settled in the fact that they weren’t getting a top-tier talent in this year’s draft.

“You’ve just got to keep wrapping your head around it. You’re kind of looking at a different level of player,” Holmes said of having a late first-round pick.

And while I do think trading up is very much a possibility as well, Holmes just didn’t quite sound as enthusiastic about it when asked. He specifically said that the team’s open Super Bowl window won’t make him more urgent to get a top-tier talent, and noted that they have strict standards for a move up.

“Everybody can’t play here. It’s got to be identified,” Holmes said. “That player has to be identified as, ‘Okay, he’s checked all those boxes. He’s the right pick and he’s the right fit.’ Also, it’s just how high you’re talking. Is it way high? Is it just a few spots?”

The Lions will draft a guard who doesn’t start in 2024—but will in 2025

I’m repeating this prediction from last year. While Colby Sorsdal almost made me right last year, I think Detroit takes another swing of the bat this season. Sorsdal still has starting potential, but Detroit truly has two long-term needs at guard—and depending on Frank Ragnow’s outlook of his own future given his health issues, there may be a third need along the interior offensive line. I would not be surprised to see Detroit select an interior offensive lineman with their first pick.

The Lions won’t draft a defensive end on Day 1 or 2

This is the b of my predictions, but I truly do believe this will happen. I think Detroit’s need for an edge defender is a bit overstated, and I don’t truly love anyone in this draft class.

First, let’s talk about need. The Lions have Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, James Houston, and CFL’s Mathieu Betts. While that isn’t an all-star cast, it’s not too bad, either. At the very least, that’s a rotation of four players with significant experience and decent production.

And when it comes to this year’s draft class, is there anyone expected to be available that is a clear upgrade over these players? Chop Robinson could be better than everyone but Hutchinson, but he also represents a pretty significant risk for a first-round pick. Darius Robinson is a great culture fit, but is Detroit really ready to essentially replace Paschal before his third season? We’ve seen plenty of Holmes’ draft picks take that Year 3 jump, and Paschal’s professional career has been hampered by injuries so far.

Admittedly, there is a long-term need here. Only Hutchinson, Paschal, and Betts are signed beyond 2024. That’s enough of a “need” for Holmes to target an EDGE player. Still, I think if Detroit wanted the upgrade they need at the position, they’re not going to get that level of player without a trade up into the top half of the first round.

Detroit will draft a Day 3 linebacker who becomes a core special teamer

I mentioned in this my list of the Lions’ top 10 needs going into the draft, but I think linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard may have tipped Detroit’s late plans. Sheppard, recalling a conversation with Jalen Reeves-Maybin, talked about how losing developmental linebackers Trevor Nowaske and Anthony Pittman has left them short of depth beyond their top five.

“(Reeves-Maybin) thinks he’s part-time player, part-time GM. So he’s already been upstairs, he’ll walk through the cafeteria—because he’s been rehabbing—he’s like, ‘Hey, have we seen any linebackers to replace Pitt(man) and Nowaske?’” Sheppard said. “I said, ‘Don’t worry about it. I’ll bring competition for you soon.’”

The Lions have carried six linebackers on the 53-man roster in the past, and with new kickoff rules likely favoring athletic, big-bodied players, I don’t expect that to change in 2024.

Some names to keep in mind on Day 3: Temple’s Jordan Magee, Washington’s Edefuan Ulofoshio, Missouri’s Ty’Ron Hopper, and Notre Dame’s JD Bertrand.