Which QB Do the Vikings Draft Next Month?

And will they trade up to draft him?

It’s inside a month until the NFL Draft, and as always, where the top quarterbacks will go is, as always, a hot topic among fans, the media, and league circles.

The recent league meeting that ended today provided some new information and perhaps a bit more clarity regarding some team’s intentions, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and misinformation going around as well.

So let’s try to separate fact from fiction and see where it leads when it comes to which quarterback the Vikings will draft next month.

Caleb Williams to Da Bears

No need to delve too deep into this one. The Bears have the first pick, just got rid of Justin Fields, and desperately need a franchise quarterback. Williams is the consensus QB1 in the draft and the Bears have had as much contact with Williams as any team. Current odds range from -4000 to -8000 (98-99% implied probability) that the Bears draft him with the first pick. Williams is headed to Chicago.

Every Team Except Chicago in the Top Five is Willing to Trade Down

It’s interesting, and revealing, that every team picking between 2 and 5 is willing to trade down. The Commanders, if you dissect head coach Dan Quinn’s recent comments below, are willing to trade down as far as the 6th or 7th pick, but only for a Hershel Walker-type haul. Albert Breer reports that the Commanders have shown “zero appetite” for trading down, however, and it was also reported that the Giants explored trading up with the Bears, Commanders, and Patriots but found no reciprocal interest. Those opposite takes on the Commander’s willingness to trade down can be attributed to team’s being unwilling to offer the Commanders premium compensation and/or in the case of the Giants, the fact that they’re division rivals.

The Commanders also have kept open the possibility of trading down with their #2 pick, although recent comments seem to define the parameters a bit to make it less likely.

When asked this weekend about taking a quarterback in the draft, Commanders’ head coach Dan Quinn responded:

“I would say it’d be fair to envision we’d be taking a quarterback,” Quinn told Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. “To say where it’ll be happening, I think that’s a better question for [general manager] Adam [Peters]. As the next weeks unfold there’ll be a lot of discussion, and that’s why we’ve had a great trip out seeing some guys, we’ll do that some more in the weeks ahead, but I’ve enjoyed that process with Adam, and going through it. He’s somebody that is an absolute expert at this position, what it looks like, where to go, and so going through that process has been really cool.”

And when asked about trade talks for the #2 pick and whether they’re fielding calls about it, Quinn responded:

“Yes, I would say it’s ringing, and because, like you said, of the talent of the group this year,” Quinn said. “And so I would anticipate him fielding these calls as it goes through, and usually it’s not necessarily later than No. 6 or 7, but those people who are usually in the top four or five, there’s somebody that somebody has targeted, and I think it’s mostly like ‘Well, I’ve got to take a shot!’ A lot of times it’s no, like ‘Thanks for calling’ but it is part of the process, and you have to do your due diligence to listen and to find out just to make sure, like is there something that you just couldn’t refuse.

“I certainly walked past it in the hallway when I was with the Cowboys, years ago for a trade that involved Herschel Walker and many draft picks and changed a lot of their organization. So, I think anybody in personnel with the skills of Adam, they’re going to listen, but there’s only so many things that you’d consider, and it’d better be really good.”

The Patriots have made it clear they’re open for business in trading down, as have the Cardinals picking at #4, and the Chargers picking at #5.

This begs the question why do they all want to trade down?

They All Want to Fleece the Vikings

The Commanders and Patriots both shot down offers from the Giants to trade up from #6. They’re not looking to pick up an extra third-round pick- they’re looking for multiple first-round picks to rebuild their roster just like the Cowboys did in the early 90s.

Dan Quinn referenced the Hershel Walker trade in talking about trading down, which was revealing, and Patriots owner Robert Kraft talked about teams desperate to trade up. The Vikings announced to the league they’re prepared to make a big move up in the draft when they accepted Houston’s offer to trade their #23 pick. And since that announcement, the teams trading in the top five have renewed their willingness to trade down.

Clearly the Vikings dangling multiple first-round picks in front of them has gotten their attention, but other circumstances are likely involved as well.

First, the Commanders, Patriots, Cardinals, and Chargers are all cellar-dwellers in their division and likely to be this season too. They all have a lot of work and roster-building needed to compete with the Eagles/Cowboys, Bills/Dolphins/Jets, 49ers, and Chiefs. They’re not just one pick away from contention.

Secondly, in the case of the Commanders and Patriots, they may not have a clear favorite in this quarterback class, and they may well have similar overall rankings for them with most of the pre-draft process completed. The Cardinals and Chargers are not looking to draft a quarterback.

Third, all four teams may well view this as a deep draft when it comes to bona fide first-round prospects. The chance to get two highly rated prospects at #11 and #23, which may or may not include a quarterback, is very tempting for a team with multiple holes to fill before they can be competitive in their division.

Which Other Teams Want to Trade Up?

And while there are multiple teams in the top five willing to trade down in next month’s NFL draft, what other teams are seriously looking to trade up?

Clearly the Vikings have the draft capital, and perhaps the motivation, to make a big move up, but what other teams could they be bidding against?

The Broncos pick at #12, but don’t have any other first-round or second-round picks this year. They could leverage future year draft picks, but just how willing the Broncos new ownership will be in doing so in the wake of the Russell Wilson disaster is unclear- but also unlikely.

The Giants could potentially move up a spot or two, but it’s doubtful they’d make the effort to do so if the Vikings didn’t move up too, and if they did it’s doubtful the Cardinals or Chargers would be more interested in a late round pick to move back a spot or two than the opportunity for substantially more from the Vikings.

The Raiders could also move up for a quarterback and have the normal allotment of picks through the first five rounds, but again with multiple holes in the roster, Davante Adams turning 32 and a $44 million cap hit the next two seasons, just how motivated they are to trade up is questionable. Dan Graziano thinks the Vikings and Raiders may compete to trade up, but only if Jayden Daniels is available at #3 and the Patriots don’t take him. Daniels remains the favorite to be taken at #2 and may be the Patriots preferred choice at #3, so that scenario appears unlikely. The rumor circulating at the Combine was that Patriots’ scouts are not high on Maye, and that they’ll look to trade down if Jayden Daniels is not available at #3. The Raiders could also end up taking Michael Penix Jr. in the second round. The Raiders and Vikings are competing favorites by bookmakers to draft Penix.

The worry for the Vikings with teams like the Broncos and Raiders is that they make a small trade up with the Bears at #9 to get a quarterback, with the Bears unwilling to deal with the Vikings and spoil their getting their preferred quarterback. But doing so could also cost the Bears their preferred player too.

At the end of the day, the Vikings may be the only team in position to make a big move up in the draft. That doesn’t set favorable market conditions for teams wanting to trade down from the top five. If the Vikings realize they’re the only serious bidder to trade up, they would be wise to lowball any offer. And they may not even need to do so. If the Patriots don’t get an acceptable trade offer, and don’t like the QBs available to them at #3 or have them ranked lower, they could easily pivot to taking their top-ranked wide receiver- which they need. That would leave two of the top four quarterbacks available and no teams that really need a quarterback until the Vikings at #11.

The Giants may consider taking a quarterback, but that would also be deciding to throw Daniel Jones under the bus a year after giving him a $160 million contract extension, which seems unlikely. Giants’ owner John Mara said he wouldn’t stop the team from drafting a quarterback if that’s what GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll want to do. But giving Jones a weapon by drafting a top wide receiver seems more likely. Bookmakers have Malik Nabors as the most likely pick at #6, although the Giants are also the second-favorite team to draft J.J. McCarthy as well.

How Motivated Are the Vikings to Trade Up?

The principal motivation for the Vikings to trade up for a quarterback is if they have one rated much higher than others on their board, and who is available at a position where the team holding the pick is willing to trade down, and the trade terms are acceptable.

At this point, there has been no indication that the Vikings have a strong preference among the non-Caleb Williams options available to them. Darren Wolfson reported that, “But of the three, among Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy, my sense is the Vikings have pretty strong, good opinions on all three.” That’s about all that’s known at the moment.

We can also judge interest by activity, although smokescreens can be a part of that. So far the Vikings have sent Kevin O’Connell to the Senior Bowl to watch Bo Nix and Micheal Penix Jr., have taken early interest in Jayden Daniels, but also have attended games involving the top six quarterbacks for at least the past year, if not longer. They’ve had formal Combine interviews with all of them and are known to have scheduled private workouts with J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. No private workouts have been reported with Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr., but that seems to be the case with nearly every team across the league. So it’s difficult to say the Vikings activity favors or doesn’t favor any particular quarterback prospect.

Kevin O’Connell has said recently after the league meeting that they like multiple quarterbacks- echoing Darren Wolfson’s reporting. He also echoed Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in saying the trade for pick #23- which (importantly) the Texans initiated- gave them the flexibility they were after in the draft. He noted that it’s a deep draft and premium defensive prospects may be drafted later than normal. Of course all that could be a smokescreen for the Vikings’ intentions, even if it’s also accurate.

Bookmakers have the Vikings as the favorite to draft J.J. McCarthy, with just over a 50% average implied probability, and most likely at #4 or #5, implying that the Vikings will trade up to one of those spots and select McCarthy. There is also reporting that the McCarthy hype is just that, and Jim Harbaugh is promoting his former QB and also improving his draft prospects because from his viewpoint with Justin Herbert, the more QBs taken ahead of him at #5, the better. Whether any team has McCarthy rated as a top five prospect remains to be seen, and it wouldn’t be surprising if a team like the Patriots, assuming they like McCarthy, would rather trade down and draft him rather than take him at #3.

In any case, the Vikings would have to have a substantially higher ranking on McCarthy, or whomever their top non-Williams QB choice is, for them to part ways with multiple first-round picks to draft him. My guess is that Jayden Daniels may be their top pick, and the one they’d be most motivated to trade up for, but not much to back that up. Graziano echoes that feeling, but not much to go on besides the Vikings being one of the first teams to begin evaluating Daniels a couple years ago. It’s also unclear how much higher on their board Daniels may be, and whether that’s enough to leverage multiple first-round draft picks to get him.

What Kevin O’Connell is Looking for in a Quarterback

Sometimes what decision-makers are looking for in a quarterback can be revealing into which quarterback they prefer or may rank highly on their board if they appear to be strong in preferred traits.

For O’Connell, who will be the primary decision-maker when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks, he recently said the key criteria he’s looking for include accuracy, football IQ, and the emotional IQ needed to lead the team.

More specifically, Ben Goessling reports that O’Connell:

“will prioritize private meetings — where they can walk a possible draft pick through their offense and immediately ask him to perform elements of it on the field — over pro days where they don’t control the script. They will use on-field mistakes to see how a QB responds to coaching, and observe a player’s interactions during on-campus lunches to gauge how he handles the spotlight inherent to the position. And they will keep Justin Jefferson informed throughout the spring.”

“When you’re selecting a quarterback of the future, with guys like Justin, Jordan [Addison], T.J. [Hockenson], our passing game thrives off of accuracy, rhythm, timing. Some of the traits that show up on these guys’ tapes, you get really excited about that,” O’Connell said. “But it’s also about toughness, football intelligence, the leadership traits I’m looking for, to take what I believe is one of the strongest locker rooms in the NFL and take it to an even better place as a young player. That’s a dynamic person you’re talking about.”

He cited Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who “went in there and was a part of changing that culture.”

“All of those things matter,” O’Connell said. “That’s why it’s hard to just say one guy versus the other at this point, because there’s so many layers to it.

The Vikings’ typical visits with prospects begin in the classroom, watching college film with a QB to learn how he was coached to approach a given play and going over the Vikings’ playbook to see how quickly a player can absorb new concepts. They’ll go from there into an on-field workout and see “how they respond to us as coaches,” O’Connell said.

“You can ask them questions and see how fast they remember things, how fast they’re digesting the information,” he added. “How clearly can they put that information into real, tangible things that then, I can use as a coach for feedback? You can go on the grass and see if they understand how we want to set our feet and eyes on this drop, or, when we talk about pocket movement, what that looks like. When we talk about on-schedule versus off-schedule, red zone, third down, how it fits within the framework of, not our system, but the system we want to build for them.”

O’Connell will often ask a player to pick his favorite spot for lunch on campus, with the Vikings picking up the tab.

“I want to see how they interact with folks,” the coach said, “because building-changing quarterbacks, they don’t just change the facilities. Any room they ever walk into, they light it up. They change it, they impact it and I think you can see that on display in an authentic way when you do the full process with those trips.”

At this point, it’s difficult to discern any preference for a quarterback based on Kevin O’Connell’s comments, or indeed comments from any decision-maker for the Vikings. O’Connell’s preference for accuracy, rhythm and timing, strong football IQ and emotional IQ could apply to Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. Perhaps even Drake Maye if potential growth and/or other circumstances are considered.

O’Connell also said that trading up for a quarterback would be, “a major, major organizational decision” and that everyone from the front office to the coaching staff would need to be aligned with the player in such a move.

Is there such alignment? It wouldn’t appear so at the moment, although signaling a preference to the rest of the league is the last thing the Vikings would want to do. We don’t know how the interviews with each of the quarterbacks went with the Vikings, nor the results of any of the scheduled private meetings/workouts, and those could have an impact on how each quarterback is rated. O’Connell has also acknowledged that college tape plays a major role in evaluations, as is typically the case for any player, so a good deal of their evaluations may already be completed.

When you look at all of these metrics, particularly with a view toward accuracy, which O’Connell has reiterated several times is a top priority in a quarterback, it’s impossible not to view Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy- in that order- as the leading contenders. If you add in other situational metrics, like throwing past the sticks, 3rd/4th down passing grades, performance under pressure, outside the pocket, and so forth, there is a good argument that Bo Nix leads the pack, followed by Daniels and McCarthy.

Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings’ brass may not share that view and may incorporate other desired traits into their evaluations. But Nix provides, at a minimum, a decent option that won’t cost them more than one first-round draft pick. And you can make the argument that he’s a better option for the Vikings than some others more closely linked to them.

In the meantime, the Vikings have met with top defensive tackle Byron Murphy II three times so far in the pre-draft process. They had a formal interview with him at the Combine, they met with him again before his pro day, and they scheduled a Top 30 workout with him as well. Brian Flores and the Vikings coaching staff also spent time with top CB Quinyon Mitchell at the Senior Bowl. These are players expected to go in the mid-first-round. If the Vikings were to draft one of them, that would likely preclude any big trade up for the Vikings, unless they’re willing to leverage their 2025 first-round pick. That could be enough to outbid the Broncos, however, who don’t have a second-round pick in this draft.

In any case, there are good options available for the Vikings if they don’t feel the need/value in trading up for a quarterback.

It Takes Two to Tango

Various sports media outlets have predicted about 150 of the last 10 first-round draft trades.

The reason for that is even in cases where it makes sense for both sides, coming to terms acceptable to both sides can be difficult.

The first aspect of coming to terms on a trade is a different assessment of prospects and/or different position priorities. For example, one QB-needy team may have a top ten or top five grade on the best available quarterback(s) available at #3, but another QB-needy team picking at #3 may have only mid-first-round grades on them. The team with the top 5/10 grade may be willing to trade up, especially if their grades on other quarterbacks are significantly lower, while the team with mid-first-round grades may be willing to trade down.

The next consideration is the best players available at other positions for each team. Using the same example, the team with mid-round grades on quarterbacks may have top 5 grades on wide receivers available at #3. While quarterback is the highest premium position, and therefore may outweigh considerations of players at other positions, foregoing a top 5 graded wide receiver may figure into what compensation is required to trade down. And for the team trading up, the compensation involved in trading up should be equal or less than the weighted value placed on the best prospect available to them in their current draft position.

Then, in addition to each team reading their own hand, using a poker analogy, they also read the other team’s hand. For example, one team may be more indifferent regarding a potential trade up or down, and therefore not likely to demand premium compensation, but sense the other team is more desperate or has more urgency in getting a deal done. The more indifferent team may then demand premium compensation, sensing the other team may pay it, and because it wouldn’t be a big deal to them if they balked at it. An assessment of the other team’s draft position, needs, and best players available at that spot may also play into the amount of compensation offered/demanded.

Lastly, what competing offers or alternative trade partners are there? Teams looking to trade up, for example, may canvas multiple teams picking in a range sufficient to get the prospect they’re after, looking for the best deal. Similarly, teams on the receiving end of trade offers will play trade offers against each other looking to maximize their compensation.

Given all of the above, it can be difficult for teams to come to terms on a trade, even though there may be interest, particularly in first-round trades when the stakes are higher. That’s why every year there are usually fewer first-round trades than predicted or thought likely.

How Many Top Ten Graded Quarterbacks Are There This Year?

Most evaluators grade at least two of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye as top ten worthy draft picks. I’ve yet to see any other quarterback graded that high, and I’ve seen both Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels graded lower on some draft boards.

That begs the question of how motivated any QB-needy team will be to make a big trade up in the draft, especially if the top two or three quarterbacks are already taken. It seems a near certainty that both the Bears and Commanders will take a quarterback with the first two picks, and there’s a decent chance the Patriots will too if they like who’s available. Both Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are thought to need to sit for a year to develop, and those aren’t the quarterbacks that are drafted in the top five. Those spots go to those quarterbacks that are thought to be immediate starters. Every quarterback drafted in the top ten picks in the last ten drafts except Trey Lance and Patrick Mahomes started as a rookie.

Bottom Line

The Vikings, despite a lot of hype around their trading up for a quarterback, may not do so. They may not have a quarterback that’s available at #3 or later rated high enough to spend multiple first-round draft picks to get him. Or they may not come to terms on a deal to trade up. They may even happy that everyone thinks they’ll trade up as it provides a smokescreen for their real intentions.

They may also find that at least one of Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. is available to them at #11 and/or #23, which alleviates the need to trade up.

At the moment, the Vikings are either the favorites or second-most likely team to draft J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix. There are no odds on which team will draft Drake Maye, but if there were it wouldn’t be surprising if the Vikings were among the top 2-3 teams on that list as well.

My guess is that it’ll either be McCarthy or Nix, but a lot can change over the next month or so before the draft begins on April 25th.