UFC 299 is here, and with it the long-awaited rematch between Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera.
In their first fight, O’Malley got out to an early lead but a leg injury (some say accident, some say caused by “Chito”) hobbled him and Vera capitalized, finishing the fight in the first round. Now they run it back in the Kaseya Center in Miami, and this time, bantamweight gold is on the line.
How will each man approach this fight, and how do they take home the win? Let’s take a look.
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Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Paths to Victory for Sean O’Malley at UFC 299
It’s a bit trite to say at this point, but O’Malley is basically Conor McGregor 2.0. It makes sense, after all. The biggest fighters engender newer generations who mold their games after their idols, and O’Malley very clearly did that with McGregor, right down to having a couple of A+ weapons and building his game entirely around that.
O’Malley is a long, rangy striker with good timing and power, and his game is built to maximize those attributes. Left to his druthers, O’Malley will give his opponents a ton of volume to work around, with jabs, feints, stance switches, and most importantly, front kicks. The goal of all of this is to set up one clean countershot that will put his foe down. It’s a good plan. O’Malley’s high volume makes opponents feel like they’re falling behind and react to “get one back” on him, charging in and allowing “Sugar” to pick them off. And if they don’t, well, then O’Malley is winning on activity.
O’Malley’s favorite way to do take advantage of over eager opponents is with open side counters (Jack Slack just did a video about them with regard to O’Malley that I encourage you to go watch) and he has a number of tricks to set them up. The teep is the one he utilizes the most, tagging the opponent and forcing opponents to overreach for return fire. When they do, he’s off at an angle and the right or left hand is coming down the pipe. Expect to see O’Malley attempt to set this up frequently on Saturday.
The other key to the game for O’Malley is movement. The man is constantly on his bike, pulling opponents in, cutting angles, hitting and moving. In the first fight with Vera, O’Malley had a lot of success in the early stages as Vera was a bit flat-footed and felt a step behind the motion and angles O’Malley was bringing. Expect more of that this Saturday, as well and honestly, this is probably the single biggest key to victory for O’Malley. Vera is insanely durable and has a penchant for landing fight-changing shots. O’Malley needs to minimize the chances for that to happen.
If I’m building a game plan for O’Malley, the strategic imperative is that we can’t exchange punches with Vera, and we have to accept that he’s probably going to be there the entire time. Dreams of a spectacular KO in the first title defense will only get us in trouble. Stick and move, limit exchanges, and kick his legs as often as possible. That was scoring almost at will in the first matchup and remains one of Vera’s biggest weaknesses. Vera is a notoriously slow starter so we should bank the first two rounds on pure activity. Then it’s simply a matter of taking one of the final three and not getting Dominick Cruzed.
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Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images
Paths to victory for Chito Vera at UFC 299
If O’Malley is McGregor 2.0, Chito is Nate Diaz Redux. Unlike O’Malley, Vera didn’t build his game to be like Diaz, but he nonetheless ended up in a similar place, as an insanely durable fighter who might well be undefeated if fights didn’t have time limits. Unlike Diaz, though, Vera is a power puncher, and that combination can cause a lot of problems for the bantamweight champion.
Vera’s durability really cannot be overstated. In 32 professional fights, the man has never been stopped, and frankly, never been all that close. Even when he gets dominated, Chito leaves the cage looking as fresh as a daisy. This, mixed with his tremendous cardio, makes him a tough out for just about anyone, and it’s the straw that stirs the drink for him offensively as well. Historically, Vera has been OK with trading one shot for two, because when you can’t hurt him, that’s a favorable exchange for him. That’s how Vera scored wins over Dominick Cruz, Rob Font, and Frankie Edgar, despite having a negative strike differential.
The other pillar of Vera’s game is his finishing ability. Chito has natural power in his shots — to the point that his jabs thud and the “big” punches are never actually thrown that hard — and it allows him to overcome the fact that he’s a terribly slow starter. You can build a lead on him because he’ll get it all back as he starts to figure you out and land his best punches. If he does, that is. Cory Sandhagen had Vera in a mental pretzel when they fought and he simply could never get out of first gear, because Sandhagen never allowed him to.
If I’m building a game plan for Vera, my primary strategic focus is on getting the fight to even terms as quickly as possible. O’Malley starts fast and Vera starts slow, meaning the champ is going to get ahead early. Things should tighten up as Vera builds and O’Malley inevitably slows, but it’s not enough to bank on what should happen. Vera needs to drag O’Malley into his sort of fight by chopping the legs and digging to the body early and often. This will slow O’Malley down and limit his movement as the fight wears on, making him more available to the big shots down the stretch. It also mitigates O’Malley’s favorite counters to some extent, as Vera won’t have to reach to hit if he’s going to the body and legs.
X-Factors
Not really sure there are any X-factors in this one. Both men are in the prime of their careers, coming into this fight off good performances, and seem to be locked in for this fight. It should be awesome.
Prediction
It’s too easy of a comparison to make, but this matchup is extremely reminiscent of Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz. In the first fight, McGregor tried to run over Diaz but simply couldn’t manage it and gassed out in the face of Diaz’s otherworldly toughness. In the rematch, McGregor had to completely change his style to work around Diaz’s advantages and still barely eked out a win. So which one will O’Malley vs. Vera be like? Gun to my head, I’m going with the former. If O’Malley comes out and jogs around, pot-shotting a Chito who never gets going, I won’t be shocked, but we’ve simply never seen O’Malley fight 25 minutes constantly on the move and it’s a tough ask for anyone. I think Vera will take away O’Malley’s favorite tools, and as the champion starts to slow down in the later rounds, Chito comes on strong.
Chito Vera def. Sean O’Malley via KO — 3:23 of Round 4.
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