The Falcons seem likely to land a 2024 3rd round pick in the Calvin Ridley trade

Atlanta won’t get the 2nd rounder unless the Jaguars surprise.

When the Atlanta Falcons traded Calvin Ridley to the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were hoping to give the receiver a landing spot he’d favor and recoup draft capital for a player who both sides knew was not going to remain in Atlanta. General manager Terry Fontenot and the Jaguars cooked up a choose-your-own-adventure-style return for the Falcons, with the team receiving a 2023 fifth round pick if Ridley was reinstated from his season-long gambling suspension by a certain date (he was, and the pick was traded) and 2024 compensation that could range from a fourth rounder to a second rounder.

Essentially, there were certain statistical thresholds Ridley had to hit in order for the Falcons to earn a third round selection, and he did so. For the Falcons to get back a second rounder, however, the Jaguars would have to re-sign Ridley, and that’s where things get both complicated and less likely.

Ridley led the Jaguars in receiving last year, putting up over 1,000 yards on 76 grabs and managing eight touchdowns. That yardage total put him at 25th in the NFL and only eight receivers scored, but Ridley’s inconsistent production—he put up under 50 yards in nine games—and the draft compensation means the Jaguars probably aren’t going to leap up to re-sign him before the new league year. Per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, that’s what would need to happen for the Falcons’ pick to elevate to a second rounder:

“Per terms of the 2022 trade with Atlanta to acquire Ridley, Jacksonville’s third-round pick due to Atlanta turns into a second-rounder if Jacksonville extends Ridley’s contract. That’s why Jacksonville would need to wait until after the new league year begins to avoid giving up a second, because at that point any deal would be a free agency signing and not an extension. But that gives Ridley time to talk with other teams during the negotiating window, unless he and Jacksonville can work out a loose agreement and wait.”

If Ridley had been absolutely lights out last year, the Jaguars likely wouldn’t take the chance that he’d make it to free agency. They’re still taking a risk by doing so if they truly want to re-sign him, but they can also try to hammer out the rough contours of a deal ahead of time and seem unlikely to surrender a second round pick just to ensure they get a deal done before the new league year opens. They’ll hope negotiations go well, wait it out, and pitch that third round pick over to the Falcons.

The second round pick would have been fantastic to have, especially in a year where the Falcons desperately need to improve the quarterback position and could use ammunition in case they want to trade up in the first round to get their future franchise option. I was hoping for Ridley’s sake and the Falcons’ sake that he’d have the kind of year that essentially forced the Jaguars to get a deal hammered out. A third round pick is likely the return the Falcons were expecting, given the parameters, and ultimately it’s still a useful second day pick for a player who was not going to suit up for the team again.

That gives the Falcons seven selections in April, including four in the first three rounds, which is capital they’ll need to further upgrade a roster that has real promise but also has real holes. We’ll see if the Jaguars do ultimately bring Ridley back or if he ends up elsewhere, but either way, expect the Falcons to land Jacksonville’s third rounder when the dust settles on this situation.