By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.
Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.
We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.
We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.
These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.
Men’s Rankings:
#30: Kristof Milak, Hungary – In any other grouping of 10, Milak’s position would be the lightning rod of debate, yet we will reserve said position for the next person on the list. Milak was been a staple atop the podium on the international stage in the men’s 200 fly from 2019 to 2022, shattering Michael Phelps‘ world record and claiming Olympic gold along the way while also joining the elite sub-50 club in the 100 fly. Despite these accolades, Milak has not competed at a major meet since 2022. The Hungarian native pulled out of the 2023 World Championships, citing both physical and mental fatigue, and then a much-anticipated return in front of a home crowd at a World Cup stop was dashed as Milak again dropped out. As recently as last week, reports have been emerging that Milak has yet to start training seriously for his Olympic title defense. With a ticking clock and reigning world champion Leon Marchand swimming in front of a home audience in Paris, the storyline surrounding the 200 fly is certainly going to be entertaining. Milak could win double gold or he might not even be in the field.
#29: Caeleb Dressel, USA – The big question that has been on everyone’s mind since the summer of 2022 will be answered this year. Will Caeleb Dressel make an impact again on the global stage? In time for Paris 2024? The seven-time Olympic gold medalist and world champion several times over and has not returned to peak form since he pulled out of the 2022 World Championships. This past summer, Dressel placed as high as 3rd at U.S. Nationals in the 50 fly and also placed 5th in the 100 fly. At the U.S. Open in December, Dressel won the 100 fly in 51.31, his fastest time since April of 2022 and one that currently sits 5th in the world rankings and #2 among Americans. His path to qualifying in the freestyle events, like all sprinters, is very uncertain, but no doubt appears more difficult due to the emergence of Jack Alexy. Dressel, who recently pulled out of the Knoxville Pro Swim Series meet due to the impending birth of his first child, certainly has a high chance of medaling at the Olympics but will first have to make the team.
#28: Xu Jiayu, China – After failing to final in any of the backstroke events at the 2022 World Championships, Xu had a much more successful 2023, winning a bronze medal in the 50 back and finishing 4th in the 100 back, just .06 shy of the podium, in Fukuoka. Xu, like many of the Chinese swimmers, may have saved his best for later in the year as he swept the backstroke events at the Asian Games, swimming a new Chinese Record in the 50 back (24.38) and a new Asian Games Record in the individual 100 back (52.23). He was even better on China’s relays, leading off the men’s medley in 52.05 and the mixed medley in a scintillating 51.91, a time that would’ve won the world title going away and was only eclipsed by Russian Kliment Kolesnikov‘s 51.82 in July. Xu also stands to benefit from China’s elite relays, with both the men’s and mixed medleys in position to vie for medals in Paris. The 29-year-old also ranked #4 in the world last year in the 200 back at 1:55.37, so there will be four medal opportunities on the table.
#27: Josh Liendo, Canada – Winning a silver medal at the World Championships could normally be seen as a highlight of any swimmer’s year, but Liendo’s performance at his first NCAAs trumps that performance, having swam flawlessly for the Florida Gators in March. He followed up by claiming silver in the 100 fly in Fukuoka, setting a new lifetime best and Canadian Record of 50.34. Although he missed the 100 free final and scratched the 50 at Worlds, the 21-year-old is a three-pronged threat, having been as fast as 21.61 in the 50 and 47.55 in the 100. All three events are stacked this year, and the presence of Dressel and Milak makes them harder than normal to predict, but Liendo walking away with a couple of medals would come as no surprise.
#26: Wang Shun, China – Without knowing if Wang tapered for the World Championships at all, it’s hard to know how to read the defending 200 IM Olympic champion’s 2023. After posting encouraging times in the spring and saying that he “found motivation and purpose again,” Wang missed the 200 IM final at Worlds for the second straight year. But it could have been that he was just prioritizing the Asian Games like many other Chinese swimmers. In Hangzhou, Wang exploded with a massive performance of 1:54.62 in the 200 IM, a new Asian Record that launches him up to #3 all-time behind Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. Wang, who turns 30 in February, is also capable of a strong 400 IM, though it feels like his focus will be fully on defending his 200 IM Olympic gold. No matter what he’ll have his hands full with Leon Marchand, who also broke 1:55 last year, but if he’s at full strength it should be a close race between them. Wang could also play a role on China’s 800 free relay after clocking 1:45.71 in the 200 free last year.
#25: Florian Wellbrock, Germany – A very impressive year for Wellbrock was overshadowed by the performances we saw in the pool in the men’s distance freestyle events in Fukuoka. After setting a lifetime best of 14:34.89 in the 1500 free in April, ranking him #4 all-time, Wellbrock stormed his way to double gold in the open water events at the World Championships, sweeping the men’s 5km and 10km. He was then, however, well off form less than two weeks later in the pool, missing the 800 free final in 9th and swimming some 25 seconds slower than he had earlier in the year in the 1500 (15:10.87) to place 20th. In Paris, pool swimming will take place before open water, and while Wellbrock will surely be trying to defend his open water Olympic title, improving on his bronze in the 1500 from Tokyo will come first on the to-do list. Having been 7:39 in the 800, he can still win a medal there, but his bread and butter is the 1500, and he’s in the hunt for gold. He’s also in the field in Doha.
#24: Hunter Armstrong, USA – Armstrong backed up his impressive showing in 2022 by claiming his first world title in the 50 back and repeating as the bronze medalist in the 100, albeit over half a second slower than he was in Budapest. In a field lacking many of his greatest adversaries, Armstrong has to be the favorite in both the 50 and 100 at the 2024 Worlds. Whether that pressure (and the results) helps or hurts Armstrong remains to be seen as come Paris, he will likely face pressure to remain on the 100 back podium from the French duo of Mewen Tomac and Yohann Ndoye-Brouard, plus Xu Jiayu, if he’s able to secure a spot on the team with the likes of Ryan Murphy, Shaine Casas and a plethora of young American talent looking to burst onto the international scene, much like Armstrong did in 2021.
#23: Daniel Wiffen, Ireland – Wiffen established himself as a bonafide Olympic gold medal contender last year, unloading some stunning performances. In April, he joined the elite sub-14:35 club in the 1500 free, clocking 14:34.91 to rank #4 all-time (at the time), and then at the end of the year, he demolished Grant Hackett‘s 15-year-old world record in the short course 800 free at SC Euros in 7:20.46. In between, he narrowly missed the medals in Fukuoka, taking 4th in the 800 and 1500 while setting a new PB and cracking 7:40 for the first time in the latter. Set to turn 23 shortly before the Games, Wiffen could easily win gold in Paris, especially if his improvement curve continues, but even if he just maintains his form, he could walk away with a pair of medals. We’ll get an early glimpse into his form in Doha, where he’s a top contender in the 400, 800 and 1500.
#22: Lukas Märtens, Germany – Märtens has arguably spread himself too thin in recent years, trying to vie for medals in both the 200 and 1500 free and everything in between. Last year, however, he had a very impressive performance in Fukuoka, swimming times of 1:44.79 in the 200, 3:42.20 in the 400, 7:39.48 in the 800 and 14:44.51 in the 1500 all within a week. However, that only resulted in one medal (his 200 free swim was from the relay), as he took bronze in the 400 free. Given how increasingly competitive the distance field is, not to mention Germany has Sven Schwarz and Oliver Klemet waiting in the wings to snag a spot in Paris alongside Florian Wellbrock, it’s possible Märtens drops the 1500 from his schedule this year—earlier this year he said he would narrow his training focus but still intended to race the 1500 in Paris. At 1:44, 3:42 and 7:39, he could win three individual medals, but right now there’s no clear path to gold in any of them barring a big drop. Märtens will race the 200 and 400 free, and 200 back, in Doha.
#21: Zac Stubblety-Cook, Australia – The only Australian male swimmer to walk away from the Tokyo Olympics with a gold medal (compared to 11 Aussie women including relay prelims), Stubblety-Cook has a lot of pressure on him to defend his title in the 200 breast after he was upset by Qin Haiyang at the 2023 World Championships. Coming into last year, ZSC looked like a slam-dunk to win in Fukuoka, but Qin lit up the field, breaking Stubblety-Cook’s world record in the process. A 200-meter specialist, finishing 12th in the 100, Stubblety-Cook will look to regain top honors in the 200 and certainly has a chance, but must rest on the hope that not only will Qin, who has only ever been under 2:07 once, falter but also that French hope Leon Marchand chooses not to throw his cap into the race as well. As for Qin, he’s proven he can go 57 in the 100 breast consistently, but in the 200, it remains to be seen how repeatable that 2:05.48 world record was. His second-fastest swim ever is 2:07.03, which Stubblety-Cook has been faster than seven times.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login