Reed’s Surprise Mock Draft

Guess who’s back??

I’m excited to be back for a bit leading up to draft season. For reference, every year since 2018, I have correctly picked the Colts first round pick, when they’ve kept it and even got Michael Pittman Jr. as their most likely target in January of that draft year.

My mock drafts are extensive with more thought and effort put into it than most National Media types. I go over every teams need and see what makes the most sense for each team at each given spot. Am I perfect? Nope. Nobody is. But I do give what some may consider a more thorough insight into how each individual team views a draft. So here we go.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) – Caleb Williams – QB – USC
This one is a bit of a no brainer now that Ryan Poles traded Justin Fields for scraps. Williams comes in and has elite playmakers at the WR position and an opportunity to succeed right away. Now will former Colts Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus let Caleb loose is the the only real question?

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – QB – LSU
Washington is such an interesting spot. It’s rumored they aren’t even entertaining offers to move off the 2nd pick. If that’s the case, my guess is this is a coin flip between Daniels and Maye. I’ll lean Daniels today because he makes the most sense given their new coaching hires but if it is Maye, look for New England to try to trade out of 3 overall.

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – QB – North Carolina
New England lands arguably the second best QB of the draft here and a player who makes a ton of sense given the new coaching staff. This is a fresh start for the Patriots after the sour taste of Mac Jones was traded away.

4. TRADE: Indianapolis Colts – Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR – Ohio State
A trade to rock the entire NFL draft. Here the Colts given up picks 15, 82, 2025 1st, and 2025 3rd to move up from 15 to 3. MHJ is the closest thing to Calvin Johnson to enter the NFL draft since Megatron himself. We don’t need to talk too much more about him because he’s the best WR prospect in this draft, no questions asked.

So why does this trade make sense for every team involved? Well, from the Cardinals perspective, this is the deepest WR draft in recent memory and they have a lot of holes to fill throughout their roster. If they want to move back up, they likely will. Arizona traded back last year and got 30% over value to move from 3 to 12 in a deal that includes 3 and 105 for picks 12, 33, a 2024 1st and a 2024 3rd. Pick 4 is suggested to be about 400 points less valuable than pick 3 so that’s the difference of about a mid 2nd round pick. In this deal, Arizona gets 38% over value from the Colts and secures their 2025 1st round pick since they know they are a year or two away from competing in the NFC West. I could also see the Colts giving up pick 46 instead of pick 82 and getting back pick 90 or 104 from Arizona.

Why do the Colts do it? Chris Ballard probably needs to make a splash. He didn’t do it in free agency so the draft may be his best shot. He’s been re-signing his own guys to an almost extreme degree. He also recently extended DeForest Buckner using the void year mechanic, which he has never done, to free up a decent amount of cap space. The cap hit difference between picks 4 and 15 is about $3.2M, which leaves the team some extra money for a veteran signing post-draft after this trade up and Buckner’s cap savings. Also, there’s the Jim Irsay factor. If ever there were a player that Jim Irsay would put his hand on the scales saying he absolutely wants this guy, it’s Marvin Harrison Jr.

We’ve seen the design now for a lot of young QBs to succeed early in their careers. Give them an elite playmaker quickly to help make things easier. The Colts have some great talent at the WR position but they don’t have a guy like Harrison. He’d immediately come in and change the dynamic of the offense. Shane Steichen leading that set of playmakers? ^chef’s kiss^

Trade Details: Colts sends 15, 82, 2025 1st and 2025 3rd for pick 4.

5. TRADE: Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – QB – Michigan
In this scenario, the Vikings take the opportunity to jump the Giants and take McCarthy. After Kirk Cousin moved on, Minnesota needs to do something to solve their long term QB position. The Vikings are a rookie QBs dream scenario with playmakers all around and a solid OL with a legitimate LT in Christian Darrisaw.

Trade Details: Vikings sends picks 11 and 23 to the Chargers for pick 5.

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – WR – LSU
The Giants got jumped for their prospective QB of the future here and instead decide to give Daniel Jones a top weapon. Can Jones actually make use of Nabers? Probably not because Jones just ain’t it. But this is a solid pick for the Giants regardless.

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – OT – Notre Dame
The Titans, for once, do the intelligent thing and take the best LT prospect in the draft. They desperately need a long term solution at LT and this makes the most sense.

8. TRADE: Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – WR – Washington
The Cardinals do it again. Last year they traded back only to trade up and get a guy they wanted. Here they jump Chicago to take the last of the big three WRs in this draft to take Odunze. He’s a number one WR from the jump and will do amazing things with Kyler in Arizona.

Trade Details: Cardinals sends 15, 35 and 138 for picks 8 and 79.

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – DE – Alabama
Chicago has tough luck as the Cardinals trade in front of them to grab Odunze. However, getting the best DE prospect in this draft is a nice consolation prize for Eberflus.

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – TE – Georgia
Bowers is the perfect fit for the Jets offense right now. He will not allow defenses to simply focus on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson while giving Aaron Rodgers a quick outlet with big play potential.

11. Los Angeles Chargers – Quinyon Mitchell – CB – Toledo
The Chargers take care of a big need in their secondary after a few swings and misses. Mitchell is a prototypical CB1 with range and a willingness to tackle.

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – QB – Oregon
The Broncos are the first team to really reach for a QB. Every year someone does it and this year it’s Denver who just released Russell Wilson and probably don’t feel great about rolling into the season with Jared Stidham as their starter.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Olumuyiwa Fashanu – OT – Penn State
The Raiders need help at the OT position and Fashanu shows the potential to be the OT2 in this class. He’s young and still learning the position but has everything a coach could ask for in an elite prospect.

14. New Orleans Saints – Troy Fautanu – OT – Washington
Is this a run on OTs? The Saints needs to address the OT position with both starters from last year questionable to be starting again this year. Fautanu makes a ton of sense for them in this position.

15. Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – DE – Florida State
After passing on Turner to trade back, the Falcons snag a fantastic pass rusher to plug into Raheem Morris’s defense. He’s a fast, relentless player who will do well in this system.

16. Seattle Seahawks – Laiatu Latu – DE – UCLA
The Seahawks have more holes than Seahawks fans would probably like to admit. Latu gives them a solid defensive end with an great motor who will consistently get pressure in a number of ways.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Terrion Arnold – CB – Alabama
Jacksonville has some options here. They try to match up to take on the Texans so they grab a top level CB as a way to try to slow down Houston’s offense.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Taliese Fuaga – OT – Oregon State
While it certainly would make sense for the Bengals to grab a WR here, they really need to protect Joe Burrow. Fuaga is a great fit for what they need.

19. TRADE: Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas Jr. – WR – LSU
The Bills finally are able to make their trade up to grab a WR they need after trading away Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk. Thomas make perfect sense for this team and what they needs.

Trade Detail: Bills trade picks 28 and 60 for pick 19.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – JC Latham – OT – Alabama
Pittsburgh goes with a top OT in a loaded OT draft to try to shore up their line in front of Russell Wilson. This makes sense for them as it is their biggest need.

21. Miami Dolphins – Jer’Zhan Newton – DT – Illinois
Newton makes perfect sense for Miami after losing Christian Wilkins left in free agency. The board fell perfectly for the Dolphins here.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – CB – Iowa
What I love and hate about Philly is they just sit tight and most of the times great players just find their way to them. This happens again with DeJean who fills arguably their biggest need with what many would consider a top playmaker in this draft.

23. Los Angeles Chargers – Ladd McConkey – WR – Georgia
McConkey has risen up a lot of board, which makes sense because he’s a great player. The guy just gets open. With both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen now elsewhere and Quenton Johnston performing poorly, McConkey could step in and help Justin Herbert immediately.

24. Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – OT – Georgia
With how the Cowboys OL has somewhat fallen apart the past few seasons, Mims is a great choice to step right in as a starter at the OT position.

25. Green Bay Packers – Byron Murphy II – DT – Texas
Murphy is a great choice for the Packers, who need that interior force on the defensive line. He will be a menace up in Green Bay.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson – OC – Oregon
While center isn’t the most glamorous pick, especially in the first round, Powers-Johnson is a force to be reckoned with and is arguably the best interior offensive lineman in this draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) – Kool-Aid McKinstry – CB – Alabama
After grabbing some future assets then trading back up for Odunze, the Cardinals grab a starting CB here. McKinstry is a great fit for their defense and makes a ton of sense given their needs.

28. Los Angeles Rams – Chop Robinson – DE – Penn State
With the somewhat surprising retirement of Aaron Donald, the Rams have a lot of holes to fill along the DL. Here they grab a great DE prospect in Robinson to help should some of the load.

29. Detroit Lions – Nate Wiggins – CB – Clemson
Wiggins makes a ton of sense for Detroit here as they need a starter in the worst way. While taking a player based on need isn’t the best way to draft, here the value of Wiggins matches the need.

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – iOL – Duke
Barton projects as an interior offensive lineman in the NFL. He’s a tenacious player who likes to get after it and will do very well clearing the path for Derrick Henry this season.

31. San Francisco 49ers – Payton Wilson – LB – NC State
Wilson slips in this mock draft but he’s a terrific playmaker when healthy. He would be an important piece for this defense to fill in after Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Worthy – WR – Texas
It’s pretty clear the Chiefs are going WR in round one. The question is which one? Here they go with Worthy, who is a deep threat and a constant concern for defenses to go over the top. You can’t teach speed and Worthy has it in spades, similar to another cheetah fast WR, Tyreek Hill, that excelled alongside Patrick Mahomes and the future Mr. Swift, Travis Kelce.

For the remainder of the Colts picks, here are where I’d guess they go.

46: Edgerrin Cooper – LB – Texas A&M (but this pick will likely be traded to recoup picks)

82: (Traded)

117: Audric Estime – RB – Notre Dame

151: Cam Hart – CB – Notre Dame

191: Trey Taylor – S – Air Force

234: Jalen Sundell – OL – North Dakota State

Love this draft? Hate it? Let me know in the comments!