Last month, the Phillies and Aaron Nola’s representatives were reportedly exchanging figures about a possible long-term contract extension, creating some feeling that a new deal might be in the works. However, it doesn’t look like the two sides will reach agreement, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (Twitter links) that the two sides have ended talks.
“We think the world of him, quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable,” Dombrowski said. “We’re very open minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season. We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”
Joe Longo, Nola’s agent, also made a statement, telling Coffey that “we had good communication with the Phillies. We just couldn’t agree at this time. We’ll pick up the conversation again at the end of the season.”
Like most players, Nola indicated that he didn’t want negotiations to stretch beyond Opening Day, as he wanted to entirely focus on baseball once the season was underway. With that unofficial deadline still five days away, it’s possible that either Nola’s camp or the Phillies could restart contract talks with one phone call, yet the public declarations by both Dombrowski and Longo would seemingly indicate that the matter has been put on hold.
Nola signed a four-year, $45MM extension with Philadelphia in February 2019, and that deal became a five-year, $56.75MM pact last November when the Phillies exercised their $16MM club option on Nola for the 2023 season. There was no doubt that the option would be picked up, given how well Nola has pitched over his eight seasons for the reigning NL champions. The 2022 campaign saw Nola post a career-best 6.3 fWAR over 205 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA and a range of excellent secondary metrics.
Between Nola’s performance, durability, and age (he doesn’t turn 30 until June), he will be one of the top names in the 2023-24 free agent class, let alone one of the top pitchers. Shohei Ohtani is on his own level given his unique two-way status, but among regular pitchers, only Julio Urias might rival Nola for the top contract given to a hurler next winter.
While the Phillies aren’t shy about giving out big contracts, they would’ve had to pay handsomely in an extension in order to retain Nola so close to his first trip to the open market. The club still retains exclusive negotiating rights with Nola until free agency officially opens (five days after the end of the World Series), yet it isn’t very common to see an extension struck with a top-tier player within that small window between the end of the season and the opening of the free agent window, and the Phillies would likely have to pay even more of a premium to extend Nola at that even later date.
That said, a reunion between the two sides shouldn’t be ruled out, even if the Phillies do end up bidding against other suitors. The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto when the catcher entered the open market during the 2020-21 offseason, and spending in free agency hasn’t been an issue in general given how Philadelphia has landed the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos to big multi-year deals. The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and are projected to exceed the second tier ($253MM+) of tax penalties in 2023.
With Walker just signed to bolster the rotation this winter, Philadelphia has Nola under control through 2023, Wheeler through 2024, Ranger Suarez through 2025 via arbitration, and Walker through 2026. Between this staggered list, Suarez’s relatively inexpensive price tag as an arb-eligible player, and the team’s hopes that younger arms like Bailey Falter, Andrew Painter, and Mick Abel can provide bargain production in the near future, it stands to reason that the Phillies might pursue re-signing Nola as a hedge against Wheeler’s possible departure following the 2024 campaign. Or, it is possible that by season’s end, the Phillies are confident enough in their young pitching depth to let Nola leave, and recoup a draft pick as compensation (though the placement of that pick will fall due to the Phils’ status as luxury tax payors).
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