Browns drafts have been near the consensus board
The internet and social media has been a problem in a lot of ways but, when it comes to sports media, they have their positives. For decades, people passionate about sports had very few opportunities to turn those passions into income, careers or communities. Now, fans have turned into analysts then analysts into full-time (or at least supplemental income-based) sports media members.
Covering the NFL draft has become a field in itself. Bridging the gap between college football and the NFL level is far beyond a cottage industry at this point. So much so that there are people who now combine draft big boards from a variety of different analysts into Consensus Big Boards.
On top of that, we have such smart people covering the league that we have data that compares where teams select players in the first three rounds compared to the Consensus Big Board:
Teams that have deviated the most from the consensus big board in the past 5 years in the first 3 rounds of the draft: 49ers, Cowboys, Raiders, and Rams. Teams that have deviated the least: Titans, Broncos, Cardinals, and Jets pic.twitter.com/IQpzytLCu1
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) April 22, 2024
Interestingly, three teams that have drafted really well (San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams) are in the top five that go against the analysts but three of the top teams in the AFC last year (Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills) were closely aligned to the consensus.
The Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles are unsurprisingly next to each other on the chart. Browns GM Andrew Berry learned a lot from Eagles GM Howie Roseman during his one year working in Philadelphia and models much of his decisions based on Roseman.
Looking at the chart, we are once again reminded just how random NFL draft success can be. Great teams draft like the Consensus Big Board would have them do while great teams get “bad value” based on the consensus rankings. In general, teams and analysts are mostly throwing educated darts at a board and hoping they hit a few more times than the other guys.
Are you surprised how successful teams compare to the consensus analysis, on both sides, and are still successful?
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