More than just mayo: A look at Will Levis

Will Levis has a cannon arm, but will need a lot of development when he reaches the NFL.

With the re-signing of Geno Smith, the Seattle Seahawks look to be less likely to gamble big on a quarterback in the NFL Draft. But the team hasn’t ruled out the possibility of doubling down at the position, so we can still have the enjoyment of studying the top prospects leading up to the big event. Some fans were less than elated by my take (or lack thereof…) on Will Levis in my recent piece. Now, I stand by my convictions but I am also not immune to feedback; that is to say, I would like to take an opportunity to correct this error and provide my honest assessment of Levis (besides him putting mayo in coffee). Taking into account the genuine assertion that he suffered from a sub-par supporting cast in 2022, you can find below a look at some of the perceived strengths, weaknesses, and inconsistencies of the former Kentucky Wildcats quarterback. So here we go!

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Will Levis | Quarterback | Kentucky Wildcats | 6’4”, 233 lbs | 23 years old

Heading into the 2022 season, Levis was viewed as potentially the best quarterback in the class. The previous year, he led the Kentucky Wildcats to a 9-3 regular season record and a win over the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Citrus Bowl. However, he suffered a regression in 2022, as did the entire Kentucky offense. This is partially due to a decline in overall roster talent, as well as a significant coaching change. These are very valid assertions as to why his statistical decline may be less concerning than it looks on paper. In fact, some experts predicted this exact thing. Here is Dane Brugler’s preseason assessment from last August:

“[Will Levis] his size, athleticism and arm talent, he checks a lot of boxes — and he put promising play on tape last season in his first year as a starter.

Levis lost his top receiver (Wan’Dale Robinson, drafted No. 43 by the Giants) and play caller (Liam Coen, now the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator), so clear on-field improvement over last season shouldn’t be assumed. However, all the talent is there for him to become a top-10 pick and NFL starter if his decision-making and anticipation continue to develop as a senior.”

To extend this optimism, one NFL quarterback who is becoming a common comp for Levis is Josh Allen. Both were/are viewed as raw, unpolished passers, but gifted athletes with the size and capabilities that teams covet at the position. Additionally, both lost some important offensive teammates leading into their final college seasons. But even considering these similarities, how realistic is it that Levis will make an Allen-like jump in the pros? Here are some more recent opinions from experts following the conclusion of the season:

Both quarterbacks [Josh Allen and Will Levis] were also late bloomers in college, went through coaching changes after establishing themselves and dealt with injuries during their final college seasons. But it still feels to me like Levis becoming Allen 2.0 in the NFL is a long-shot, best-case scenario and maybe not the most realistic.

–James Boyd and Nick Baumgargner, the Athletic, bold text added for emphasis

Hunter Shelton of Sports Illustrated called Levis “polarizing,” and goes on to quote NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah as saying the following:

When you look at the sacks, the offensive line wasn’t very good in front of him this year, and there’s some blown protection. I would want to sit there and go through all the sacks and turnovers when you sit down with him, because it is a big number and it needs to be explained. I don’t think that’s all on him.

Jeremiah continues to note that Levis, himself, struggled with awareness of backside pressure, which contributed to the high sack totals. However, he goes on to compare him favorably to Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott in athleticism and build, respectively. These aren’t bad comps, and I am generally a fan of Prescott, but I also think that neither of these players are the type of talent that you would expect from a successful top-5 draft pick. But these are just comparisons; how does Levis actually look on the film? The answer, again, is uneven. And I mean this in the most literal sense of the terms, as he has both high-peaks and low-valleys when you watch his tape.

The Film

Below are two excellent scouting videos, originally from an article by Zach Hicks of Sports Illustrated. The first is an example of where Levis excels.

Now we get to the struggles:

Looking at the above clips, you can see some of Levis’s most apparent qualities on display — both good and bad. In the first clip, he can be seen standing tall in the pocket and delivering the ball with poise. The pass at :09 is particularly impressive to me, as these are the exact kind of throws that he will need to make at the next level. He makes a quick read and fires the ball with the velocity and accuracy that could beat pro-level tight coverage.

But compare that to the video that follows. You can clearly see some of his downside on display; he can get locked on to targets and misses wide open receivers too frequently. Around the :36 second mark, he throws the ball behind an open crosser, leading to an interception. These are the kinds of throws that will haunt him as a pro. Of course, every quarterback will have throws that they wish they could have back, but with Levis, teams may need to expect more of these than they might with somebody like Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, especially early on. Richardson will likely suffer some growing pains as well, but he also has such a rare athletic profile that I expect him to find a way to make a difference early on. Essentially, teams will require a degree of patience with Levis that may exceed any of the other quarterbacks available at the top of round 1.

Comparing Levis to the other QBs in this class

I think we can all agree that the Georgia Bulldogs had one of — if not the — best defenses in college football over the last two seasons. This is great, because each of the top quarterbacks in this class has played at least one game against the defending national champions since 2021. And how did these games go? Below you can see the cumulative stats put up by each of the top four, as well as Hendon Hooker, just for the sake of further comparison.

Looking exclusively at the above stats, you might be led to believe that Levis actually had pretty solid performances against a ferocious defense, relatively speaking. However, two of his touchdowns were essentially in garbage time with the game well out of reach; both of these were the final points scored in the game, and both came when Georgia was already up by more than 20 points. Two of his three total TDs were 1-yard passes, and the other was an 8-yarder. That is to say, he wasn’t exactly lighting up the Bulldogs defense. But some of this can surely be chalked up to the players surrounding these quarterbacks; as acknowledged above, Stroud, Young, Richardson, and even Hooker all had much better supporting casts than Levis. This is true, but is it true enough that we can excuse Will Levis and Kentucky scoring only 6 points against Georgia last season? Or 13 points in the season prior when Wan’Dale Robinson was still on the roster? Maybe, but I still find it concerning that he struggled to this extent against a team that most closely approximates the level of talent he will face in the NFL. For a quarterback who is supposed to become the future face of a franchise, I would like to see a more encouraging track record against high level competition.

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While it is clearly established that Will Levis has all the tools to become an NFL quarterback, the evidence suggests that he may exhibit a level of volatility that is concerning, especially given his projected status as a top-10 pick. Teams typically expect a game changer at any position in the top half of the first round, particularly when selecting a quarterback, even if some patience is required to get there. But can Will Levis ever get there? And if so, how much patience will be required?

I see too many red flags to feel confident that he will mature into the guy and not just another player like Carson Wentz or Daniel Jones. That isn’t the worst possible outcome, as Wentz still put together some impressive performances and played a significant role in getting Philly to the playoffs, even if Nick Foles ending up in the limelight with his Super Bowl performance; similarly, Daniel Jones led the New York Giants to the divisional round last season, and scored a significant pay raise as a result. But I think this is a perfect example of the kind of player that I anticipate Levis growing into: the type of guy who can succeed in the right situation, but not the type of player that you can bank on to turn a franchise around.

So I end with these final questions, and yes, they are intended to be rhetorical: can Will Levis separate himself from middling first round quarterbacks like Wentz and Jones? Can he harness his rare physical tools and put himself in the elite territory of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Joe Burrow? Ultimately, this is a decision that NFL franchises will have to make. At this point, when can only speculate, but I suppose we will find out soon enough.