Who do the Really Smart Football People™ think the Vikings are picking?
As we now sit just hours from the start of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit, it’s time to take a quick look at what all the Really Smart Football People™ think that our Minnesota Vikings will be doing in the first round of this year’s selection meeting.
First and foremost, I want to give everyone a quick apology for not doing the Mock Draft Database again this season. Between work and other real-life things that were happening, I just didn’t have the time to devote to it like I had in past years. Hopefully, if the Vikings have a first-round pick next season, real life will slow down enough for me to get it done again.
With that, let’s take a look at what some of the bigger names around the interwebs think our favorite team is going to do tonight, shall we? If the draft has the Vikings trading up I will specify the terms of the deal. If no deal is mentioned assume the mock has the Vikings selecting at #11 and #23.
Field Yates, ESPN: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy and UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu
(Yates has the Vikings moving up to #8 with Atlanta in exchange for #11, #129, and a 2025 third-rounder.)
McCarthy would be in an excellent situation with Minnesota’s supporting cast, and the Vikings would also preserve their No. 23 pick by moving to only No. 8 to get him. McCarthy has the high-end accuracy to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as well as the mobility to pick up yards on the ground. And I know Minnesota has Sam Darnold, but I believe McCarthy would start right away.
Latu would join Jonathan Greenard for Minnesota’s new-look pass rush on defense. He had the best tape of any defensive player in the class and can become a double-digit sack artist in the NFL. After all, he had 23.5 of them over the past two seasons at UCLA. Medical concerns over a prior neck injury (while at Washington in 2020) would be the only reason he slides to this slot.
Matt Miller, ESPN: McCarthy
(Miller has the Vikings sending #11, #23, and a 2025 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers to move up to #5.)
McCarthy is pro-ready coming out of the Michigan offense and would enter a dream situation with the Vikings thanks to the great supporting cast in place. I see good arm strength and a smooth release on tape, and he can make plays with his legs.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. and Illinois DL Johnny Newton
The Vikings don’t make the move to get a quarterback and sit here and take Penix. I think this is a move that will work out well for them in the long run.
The interior of their defense lacks a player who can push the pocket. Newton can be that guy to give Brian Flores a nice inside player.
Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports: McCarthy
(Trapasso has the Vikings making a trade up with the Tennessee Titans to select at #7 overall but does not specify the terms of said trade.)
The Vikings would’ve loved Drake Maye but are happy with McCarthy here, especially considering they don’t have to move mountains to get him.
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL dot com: McCarthy and Penn State Edge Chop Robinson
I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota trading up a couple spots for a quarterback, but all the information I’ve gathered in the last couple days suggests the Vikings are not crazy about making a bold move up the board for McCarthy. I believe they’ve grown more comfortable with Michael Penix Jr. as a fallback option if a team were to leapfrog them for McCarthy.
Robinson is a dynamic edge rusher who fills a need for Minnesota.
Joel Klatt, Fox Sports: McCarthy
(Klatt has the Vikings moving up with the Chargers at #5 but does not specify the terms of the deal.)
This is where the draft gets interesting. If this is how the first four picks go, Jim Harbaugh holds the keys to where his college quarterback is going to play. I would be shocked if they aren’t in communication about that, and I think Harbaugh wishes in a lot of ways that he could draft McCarthy. The Chargers won’t trade Justin Herbert, but I think they’ve kicked the tires on this. The problem is that the money doesn’t work, owing Herbert too much and creating a massive dead cap hit. I don’t think they’ve abandoned that thinking because Harbaugh loves McCarthy.
So, Minnesota is ultimately where Harbaugh decides to send McCarthy. It’s the best place to go for any of these quarterbacks, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at receiver and Kevin O’Connell as a playcaller, giving whoever ends up going here a chance to have a C.J. Stroud-esque rookie season.
Trevor Sikkema, Pro Football Focus: McCarthy and Florida State DL Braden Fiske
(Sikkema has the Vikings trading down from #23 to #30 with the Baltimore Ravens while not moving from #11.)
After all that talk of the Vikings giving up the kingdom for a quarterback, they pick an ideal player to develop here at No. 11.
Fiske has taken a lot of top-30 visits this cycle, and the Vikings were one of his stops. If they can trade back to the later part of Round 1 or the early part of Round 2, I think they’d be in on him giving them a pass-rush presence in the middle.
The Ringer: North Carolina QB Drake Maye
(This mock has the Vikings sending #11, #23, and a 2026 second-rounder to the Chargers to move up to #5 overall.)
What a coup for the Vikings, who get the quarterback they’ve loved all along at no. 5. Maye is a great fit for the Vikings’ downfield and aggressive offense. While he may take his rookie lumps early, the QB friendliness of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Kevin O’Connell will do wonders for his development.
Dane Brugler, The Athletic: McCarthy
(Brugler has the Vikings trading up to #5 with the Chargers but does not specify the terms of the deal.)
It feels like it’ll be a race between the Vikings and Broncos to nab the draft’s fourth quarterback. In this scenario, the Vikings win out and trade up with the Chargers to take McCarthy.
Mark Schofield and James Dator, SB Nation: McCarthy
(This draft also has the Vikings trading #11 and #23 and their 2025 first-rounder to the Chargers for #5.)
As projected we have Minnesota giving up their two first round picks in 2024, as well as their 1st in 2025 in order to move up and take J.J. McCarthy. It’s a franchise-defining move that will take years to truly evaluate, but the knee-jerk reaction is that it’s a considerable amount of risk — but a risk that had to be taken.
The Vikings are forced to overpay for the mistake of mismanaging their rebuild. This team kept preaching the concept of a “competitive rebuild,” which is great on paper if you’re actually competitive. Instead they put themselves in draft purgatory that had to be course corrected for.
Minnesota can’t move forward slowly at the QB position, and the 2025 class is going to be BAD. So, they are forced to pull the trigger to keep Justin Jefferson happy, and then pray that McCarthy’s lack of reps are a symptom of the Michigan run-heavy offense, not the cause of it.
There’s a quick roundup of a few mocks for your consumption, folks. In about eight hours, we’re finally going to start getting some answers.
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