Mahomes and Kelce Climbing up FO Leaderboards

There’s no question that the Kansas City Chiefs have the best quarterback and tight end of this era. The only question is whether anyone can stop Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s assault on the record books.

Mahomes finished first among quarterbacks in total and passing DYAR in 2022 while ranking eighth in rushing DYAR. It’s the third time in his five seasons as an NFL starter he has won the passing DYAR crown. Mahomes joins Peyton Manning (six first-place finishes), Tom Brady (also six), and Dan Marino (five) as the only quarterbacks since 1981 to lead the league in passing DYAR more than twice.

Since taking over as Kansas City’s starter in 2018, Mahomes has never finished lower than fourth in passing DYAR. He is one of 11 quarterbacks with five top-four finishes, joining Manning (who did it 14 times); Brady, Marino, and Drew Brees (11 each); Joe Montana (nine, though we have not analyzed his first year as a starter in 1980 yet); Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers (six); and Brett Favre, Steve Young, and Dan Fouts (five, though there’s nearly a decade of Fouts’ career we haven’t gotten to yet).

In 2022 alone, Mahomes passed Fouts, Jim Everett, Troy Aikman, Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, and Steve McNair on the career DYAR leaderboards. He now sits at 17th place, about one big game behind Matthew Stafford, with Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, and Warren Moon among those likely to be overtaken in 2023.

Top 20 Quarterbacks, Total Passing DYAR, 1981-2022
Name	Pass DYAR	Games	DYAR/G
Tom Brady	28,756	335	85.8
Peyton Manning	26,290	266	98.8
Drew Brees	23,692	287	82.6
Dan Marino	19,461	242	80.4
Aaron Rodgers	15,977	230	69.5
Philip Rivers	15,299	244	62.7
Brett Favre	14,931	302	49.4
Ben Roethlisberger	14,457	249	58.1
Matt Ryan	13,425	234	57.4
Joe Montana	12,081	161	75.0
Steve Young	10,300	234	44.0
John Elway	9,377	234	40.1
Warren Moon	9,024	208	43.4
Carson Palmer	8,963	182	49.2
Tony Romo	8,850	156	56.7
Matthew Stafford	8,475	191	44.4
Patrick Mahomes	8,246	80	103.1
Dan Fouts	7,886	85	92.8
Jim Everett	7,751	158	49.1
Troy Aikman	7,672	165	46.5

Note that Mahomes has played only 80 games, fewest of anyone in that table, and is the only quarterback listed to average triple-digit DYAR per game. Manning and Fouts are the only others to average 90 or more.

Mahomes is still only 27 years old with a lot of football left in his career; he has a long way to go catch the Bradys and (Peyton) Mannings of the world. Kelce, however, is 33, and his place among the great tight ends in history is more secure. He just completed his third season atop the tight end leaderboards, tying him with Rob Gronkowski and Brent Jones, trailing only Antonio Gates (four) and Tony Gonzalez (seven) for the most first-place finishes at the position. It’s also Kelce’s eighth finish in the top four, tying him with Gates and Jason Witten behind Shannon Sharpe (10) and Gonzalez (13).

Kelce is now one of six tight ends on record to surpass 2,000 career receiving DYAR. Gonzalez still maintains a dominant lead in that department, but Gronk is the only player in the top 10 who can top Kelce game-for-game.

Top 10 Tight Ends, Career Receiving DYAR, 1981-2022
Name	Rec DYAR	Games	DYAR/G
Tony Gonzalez	3,250	270	12.0
Antonio Gates	2,662	236	11.3
Rob Gronkowski	2,362	143	16.5
Jason Witten	2,097	271	7.7
Shannon Sharpe	2,090	204	10.2
Travis Kelce	2,062	144	14.3
Todd Christensen	1,195	108	11.1
Jimmy Graham	1,177	184	6.4
Mark Bavaro	1,140	126	9.0
Brent Jones	1,102	143	7.7

Mind you, all of these are just regular-season numbers. Since Mahomes was named Kansas City’s starter, he leads the NFL with 28 postseason touchdown passes (Tom Brady is second with 15) and Kelce is first with 11 touchdown receptions (Cooper Kupp is next with six). And soon, they’ll have chance to score in the playoffs even more.

Quarterbacks

Best Quarterbacks, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Patrick Mahomes	KC	1,752	97	3	1,851
Jared Goff	DET	1,467	-44	1	1,424
Josh Allen	BUF	1,085	226	—	1,312
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	1,105	-17	—	1,088
Tom Brady	TB	1,122	-39	-5	1,078

The first four names here should require little explanation. Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns through the air. Jared Goff had the second-lowest rates of both sacks and interceptions while finishing in the top six in total yardage, yards per throw, and touchdowns. Josh Allen was second at the position in rushing yards and first in rushing DYAR, and though he struggled with red zone turnovers, only Mahomes threw for more scores. Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to injury, but nobody was better at producing big plays—he led the league in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per throw (8.9), and yards per completion (13.7).

And then there’s Tom Brady. Despite starting 17 games and setting single-season records with 490 completions and 733 attempts, Brady only threw 25 touchdowns, tied for eighth in the NFL. (Tagovailoa had just as many touchdowns in 333 fewer passes.) He was fourth-worst with 6.4 yards per throw, finishing behind such luminaries as Baker Mayfield and Davis Mills, and only Kyler Murray averaged fewer yards per completion than Brady’s rate of 9.6. So how can we call him one of the season’s top passers?

For most of his career, Brady has excelled at avoiding disaster, and that was definitely the case in 2022. In all those dropbacks, he was only sacked 22 times, less than Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, or Zach Wilson, none of whom played more than nine games. Brady’s sack rate of 2.9% was the lowest in the NFL. He also threw only nine interceptions; his interception rate of 1.2% was third-lowest. His Football Outsiders numbers are difficult to process. His 133.7% DVOA on successful plays was worst in the league, but his -122.8% DVOA on failed plays was best; in plain English, Brady’s good plays were terrible, but his bad plays were excellent. And he was eighth in success rate, so as bad as his good plays were, he had more of them than anyone else.

Worst Quarterbacks, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Matt Ryan	IND	-359	-50	—	-410
Justin Fields	CHI	-541	170	—	-371
Baker Mayfield	CAR/LAR	-221	-94	—	-314
Kyle Allen	HOU	-273	-38	—	-311
Nick Foles	IND	-293	-7	—	-300

Nobody had worse passing DYAR this season than Justin Fields, but his elite scrambling ability (his 7.1 yards per carry was best in football) lifted him just out of the basement. We’ll talk about Fields more shortly, but for now let’s focus on Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, and the Indianapolis Colts. We have written before about the terrible trio the Colts had under center—Ryan and Foles finished second- and third-worst in passing DYAR, and though Sam Ehlinger didn’t quite make this table, he was eighth-worst. The Colts are the eighth team on record with two players in the bottom three in passing DYAR (ignoring minimum pass attempts), and the first since the 2020 Cardinals. They join those Cardinals, the 2004 Bears, and the 1994 Oilers as the only teams with three players in the bottom eight.

There were basically two versions of Baker Mayfield this year. The Carolina version had -309 DYAR and a -32.8% DVOA and barely looked like an NFL player. The L.A. version had 88 DYAR and a -1.7% DVOA, better than Matthew Stafford in both categories, and looked like a high-end backup or even a mid-level starter. In related news, Sean McVay is a better coach than Matt Rhule. And you may have forgotten that Kyle Allen started a pair of games for Houston, but he was terrible, completing less than 60% of his passes and averaging less than 6 yards per throw with two touchdowns, four interceptions, and seven sacks.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Zach Wilson, NYJ

OK, hear me out. Though Wilson’s NFL passer rating of 72.8 was worst in the league, there were seven quarterbacks (including the other Wilson) with DVOAs worse than Zach’s rate of -15.2%. He completed a league-low 54.5% of his passes, but he made those completions count, averaging 12.8 yards a pop, second only to Tua Tagovailoa. So he was fourth worst in success rate and ninth worst in average yards per dropback. In this case “better than his standard stats” means “awful, yes, but some were even worse.”

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Justin Fields, CHI

Fields was 10th-worst in passer rating (85.2), but his DVOA of -34.5% was worst by a lot—Matt Ryan was next-worst at -22.5%. This one’s easy to explain: passer rating does not include sacks, and Fields took a league-high 55 of them (tied with Russell Wilson) despite ranking 27th in pass attempts. Fields’ sack rate of 14.7% was worst for any qualifying quarterback in a quarter-century, since Jake Plummer in 1997. Fields averaged 7.1 yards per throw, which was actually better than average, but only 5.2 yards per dropback; only Joe Flacco was worse.

Most Improved: Trevor Lawrence, JAX

As a rookie in 2021, Lawrence ranked 32nd with -345 passing DYAR and 29th with a -19.5% DVOA. In 2022, he ranked sixth with a 13.1% DVOA and seventh with 948 DYAR. Lawrence literally doubled his touchdown total (from 12 to 25) and cut his interceptions in half (from 17 to eight) while averaging a full yard more per pass.

Biggest Decline: Aaron Rodgers, GB

In 2021, Rodgers led the league in yards per throw, interception rate, and DVOA (27.6%) while winning his fourth MVP trophy. In 2022, he averaged 217.4 yards per game (his low-water mark as a starter) while throwing a dozen interceptions (his most since 2008) and finished 21st in DVOA (0.3%).

Running Backs

Best Running Backs, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Nick Chubb	CLE	—	341	61	401
Josh Jacobs	LV	—	308	75	383
Christian McCaffrey	CAR/SF	34	106	218	358
Aaron Jones	GB	—	224	55	278
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	—	223	48	271

Nick Chubb led all runners in DVOA and DYAR, though that’s not as impressive as it sounds. His DVOA of 19.3% was the worst ever for a league-leader, with 1994 being the only other season where nobody hit 20.0%. But Chubb ranked third with 1,525 rushing yards, fifth with a dozen rushing touchdowns, and ninth among all players (fifth among running backs) with 5.0 yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey led all running backs in receiving DYAR for the second time in his career, his fourth finish in the top five. His DVOA doubled from 13.1% with Carolina to 26.9% with San Francisco. In related news, Kyle Shanahan is a better coach than Matt Rhule. Josh Jacobs finished between the two of them in total DYAR; let’s put a pin in that for now.

In Green Bay, Aaron Jones finished exactly fourth in rushing DYAR for the third year in a row, finishing second among running backs with 5.3 yards per carry. And Tyler Allgeier might have been a strong favorite for rookie of the year if he played for a better team; his raw numbers are nearly identical to Kenneth Walker’s, and he ranked 17th in success rate while Walker ranked 41st. Allgeier ranked fifth in both DYAR and DVOA; his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson ranked sixth and second as the Falcons ground game was stronger than you probably realized.

Worst Running Backs, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Rex Burkhead	HOU	-7	-21	-59	-87
Trestan Ebner	CHI	—	-46	-28	-74
Tyrion Davis-Price	SF	—	-54	-11	-65
James Robinson	JAX/NYJ	—	-67	20	-47
Dalvin Cook	MIN	-43	-24	27	-41

There were no historically brilliant running backs this season, but none were particularly terrible either. James Robinson (who started the year with the Jaguars and ended it with the Jets finished last in both rushing DYAR (-67) and DVOA (-22.3%), but those numbers are very mild. This is the first year on record when no running back hit -70 rushing DYAR; in fact, there had been at least three such runners in every season back to 1987, when a strike wiped out a quarter of the season for most players.

With nobody stinking up the joint for an entire season, the list of worst running backs is dominated by part-timers with disappointing cameos. Rex Burkhead had 26 carries for 80 yards for Houston—not in a game, but all season. He was third on the team with 37 catches, but averaged only 5.5 yards per reception. Trestan Ebner, a sixth-round rookie in Chicago, gained 54 yards on 24 carries. The Bears also threw him eight passes; he caught two of them for 8 yards, and only two of those 32 opportunities resulted in first downs. Tyrion Davis-Price, a third-round rookie out of LSU, had 34 carries for 99 yards, including and 8-27 statline against Arizona in Week 18. Robinson, the one-time UDFA rookie sensation, had a little boom and a lot of bust in both Jacksonville and New York; he averaged 32.7 yards on his three touchdown runs, 3.1 yards on his other 107 carries, getting stuffed a league-high 26% of the time.

Let’s take a pin and stick Dalvin Cook next to Josh Jacobs, saving them for later while we circle back to…

Better Than His Standard Stats: Nick Chubb, CLE

We listed Chubb’s accolades earlier; how much better than that could he be? Consider that he did all that against the most difficult schedule any running back faced, gaining a league-high 76 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. Nine of Chubb’s 17 games came against teams in the top 10 in run defense DVOA. His numbers in those games: 15.6 carries for 78.8 yards per game, 5.1 yards per run, and a half-dozen touchdowns. Chubb also did the most damage in the NFL on explosive runs, with a league-high 341 yards coming 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Now, let’s get back to…

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Dalvin Cook, MIN

Just as his Minnesota Vikings racked up a lot of wins with historically bad point totals, Dalvin Cook racked up a lot of yards from scrimmage with historically bad DYAR numbers. He’s only the second running back on record with negative total DYAR on 1,400-plus yards from scrimmage, joining Matt Forte in 2009. And while that DYAR is skewed by a sack-fumble on a goal-line trick pass against Detroit, even without that play Cook was basically at replacement level. And it’s pretty easy to explain why: Cook was stuffed for no gain or a loss 62 times, most in the league, and only James Robinson and Kenneth Walker had higher stuff rates than Cook’s 23.5% amongst qualified runners. Oh, and he only converted 10 of his 24 carries with 1 or 2 yards to go for a first down. The Vikings as a team were dead last in short-yardage success and next to last in stuff rate, and whether that’s the fault of Cook or the Minnesota offensive line, it’s not good.

But there’s always a chance Cook will play better next year. Just ask…

Most Improved: Josh Jacobs, LV

Jacobs was a below-average runner in 2021, finishing with a negative DVOA while losing carries to Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake. All he did in 2022 was lead the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards and 2,053 yards from scrimmage. Jacobs was particularly good at moving the chains, rushing for 93 first downs (nobody else had even 70) and adding 16 more as a receiver.

Biggest Decline: Jonathan Taylor, IND

You Knew This Was Coming, Part I: A year ago in this space, we were writing about how Jonathan Taylor had put together the best running back season in a couple of decades; this year, he had a negative DVOA. His rushing production dipped by nearly a thousand yards, and though that’s partly because he missed a half-dozen games, his per-game averages fell from 106.5 to 78.3, and his per-carry rate fell by a full yard. Oh, he was also last at his position in receiving DYAR; the Colts threw him 40 passes, only four of which resulted in first downs.

Wide Receivers

Best Wide Receivers, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Justin Jefferson	MIN	27	28	489	543
Stefon Diggs	BUF	—	-7	434	427
Tyreek Hill	MIA	—	35	388	423
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	—	21	397	418
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	—	12	314	326

Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 128 catches and 1,809 yards, and also finished first in receiving DYAR. He had finished third in that latter department in each of his first two seasons. That makes him the 11th wideout ever with a trio of top-three finishes; only Jerry Rice (eight); Michael Irvin and Randy Moss (five); and Jordy Nelson (four) have done so more often. Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Bills for the draft pick that was used to select Jefferson, didn’t often rank highly in DYAR for the Vikings, but he has now finished second twice in three seasons in Buffalo.

In Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins are the 15th team to have two wide receivers in the top four in DYAR, and the first since Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb did it for the Green Bay Packers in 2014. Hill finished second behind Jefferson with 119 catches and 1,710 yards; Waddle added 1,356 yards and led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch. And remember, over 30% of their targets came from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.

In Dallas, CeeDee Lamb blossomed into the NFL’s top wideout in the red zone. He had 15 targets inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, catching 11 of them for 95 yards and five touchdowns.

Worst Wide Receivers, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
A.J. Green	ARI	—	—	-98	-98
Diontae Johnson	PIT	—	15	-98	-83
Breshad Perriman	TB	—	-36	-44	-80
Robby Anderson	CAR/ARI	—	—	-79	-79
James Proche	BAL	-35	—	-43	-78

Like we saw with running backs, there were no truly awful wide receivers this year. Every qualifying wideout had a DVOA higher than -30.0%; that’s only the second time ever that has happened, and the first since 1986.

A.J. Green finished last in DYAR in 2020, enjoyed a nice rebound season in 2021, and now has finished last in receiving DYAR again (although, with only 47 targets, he narrowly missed qualifying for our official tables). Green set or tired career-lows with 24 catches, 236 yards, 9.8 yards per catch, two touchdowns, and 15.7 yards per game. He will enter free agency at age 35 is unlikely to part of the rebuilding effort in Arizona … or anywhere else.

Diontae Johnson was neck-and-neck with Green in DYAR; he caught less than 60% of his targets, averaged only 10.3 yards per catch, and failed to score a touchdown. Breshad Perriman was bad as a receiver (19 targets, nine catches, 110 yards) and even worse as a runner (two carries for a net loss of 7 yards, including a fumbled exchange on a botched reverse against Green Bay). Robby Anderson had a -33.4% DVOA with Carolina that fell to -39.1% with Arizona. In related news, Kliff Kingsbury was no better a coach than Matt Rhule. James Proche, like Dalvin Cook in the running backs section, makes the bottom five because of a turnover on a trick-play pass attempt, but his receiving numbers (17 targets, eight catches, 62 yards, a 7.8-yard average) are rotten enough on their own.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Jaylen Waddle, MIA

As noted, Waddle led the NFL in yards per reception. That’s how you finish third among wideouts in receiving DYAR despite finishing outside the top 20 in catches.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Diontae Johnson, PIT

Johnson did finish in the top 20 in catches—13th place with 86, to be precise—but was still at the bottom of the DYAR tables. Between short receptions and incomplete passes, he was third in the league in failed targets. Only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson had more, and needless to say those two had a lot more big catches than Johnson.

Most Improved: Stefon Diggs, BUF

So remember when we said Diggs had ranked second in DYAR twice in his three seasons in Buffalo? In between those two years, he ranked 24th in 2021. Diggs caught five more passes in 2022 than he had the year before, for 204 more yards and one more touchdown, and he did it in 10 fewer targets.

Biggest Decline: Cooper Kupp, LAR

You Knew This Was Coming, Part II: A year ago in this space, we were writing about how Cooper Kupp had put together the best wide receiver season in our record books (and that was before he went 33-478-6 in the playoffs); this year, he was 30th in DYAR and 34th in DVOA. It didn’t help that he missed half the season, but his averages fell from 114.5 yards per game to 90.2 and 13.4 yards per catch to 10.8.

Tight Ends

Best Tight Ends, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Travis Kelce	KC	—	7	248	255
Dallas Goedert	PHI	—	—	204	204
George Kittle	SF	—	—	179	179
Will Dissly	SEA	—	—	121	121
Mark Andrews	BAL	—	21	94	115

We must discuss Travis Kelce a little bit more, because some of his statistics were better than those of most wide receivers. His 12 touchdown catches were second to Davante Adams’ 14; his 78 first downs were second to Justin Jefferson’s 80. Dallas Goedert couldn’t match Kelce’s volume, but he was second at the position with a 36.1% DVOA, catching nearly 80% of his targets for 12.8 yards per reception. Seattle’s Will Dissly was first at the position with a 39.6% DVOA, catching nearly 90% of his targets for 10.3 yards per reception. George Kittle’s 11 touchdown grabs were second at the position behind Kelce, and he did it in 66 fewer targets. Mark Andrews was much less effective than he had been in 2021 (foreshadowing!), but he was still the most dangerous weapon in the Baltimore offense, especially as a short-yardage runner—his three carries gained a total of only 8 yards, but all of them picked up first downs.

Worst Tight Ends, Total DYAR, 2022
Name	Team	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Total DYAR
Tre’ McKitty	LAC	—	—	-85	-85
Logan Thomas	WAS	—	—	-76	-76
Cameron Brate	TB	—	—	-64	-64
Brevin Jordan	HOU	—	—	-54	-54
Cole Turner	WAS	—	—	-47	-47

Tre’ McKitty averaged 7.2 yards per catch in 2022, with a fumble. That’s even worse than his 7.5-yard average in 2021. Granted, between the two years, he caught only 16 passes. In 28 games. Twelve of them starts. Catching passes isn’t really his job, is what I’m saying. Catching passes is part of Logan Thomas’ job, but he wasn’t very good at it, averaging 8.3 yards per reception with only one touchdown. Cameron Brate is sort of in the middle—he has averaged 1.8 catches per game in each of the past three years—but he averaged only 8.7 yards per catch without a single touchdown this year. Brevin Jordan averaged 9.1 yards on 14 catches without a touchdown for Houston.

None of them, though managed so much futility in so little opportunity as Washington’s Cole Turner. In 10 games, the Commanders threw him nine passes. One was caught for a first down. Another was caught for a short gain. The other seven were all incomplete.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Dallas Goedert, PHI

Second at the position in DYAR despite finishing 12th with 55 catches. But again, he averaged 12.8 yards per reception. Only four tight ends had better averages, and none of them caught more than 37 passes. This is quite a change for the Eagles; Zach Ertz used to catch a ton of short passes and was regular named as the tight end who played worse than his standard stats.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

Conklin ranked in the top 10 tight ends with 58 catches (more than Goedert, you’ll note) but finished 46th among qualifiers in DYAR. He averaged only 9.5 yards per reception and was the only player at the position to fumble twice.

Most Improved: Evan Engram, JAX

Engram was last in receiving DYAR in 2021, averaging less than 9 yards per reception and 6 yards per target while catching passes from Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm with the Giants. He was seventh in DYAR this year, averaging 10.5 yards per reception and 7.8 yards per target while catching passes from Trevor Lawrence.

Biggest Decline: Mark Andrews, BAL

Andrews led all tight ends with 310 DYAR in 2021, catching 107 balls for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns while playing with a healthy Lamar Jackson. He was “only” sixth with 94 DYAR this year, catching 73 balls for 847 yards and five touchdowns as the Ravens’ quarterback depth chart fell to pieces.