Is The Colts Wide Receiver Prototype Changing?

Has Chris Ballard changed what he looks for in Wide Receivers with a new Head Coach in Indianapolis? Or will he go back to his previously established tendencies?

Prior to the 2023 NFL Draft, fans and analysts thought we had Colts’ General Manager Chris Ballard’s Wide Receiver preferences figured out. After all, he had drafted 6 Wide Receivers from 2018-2022, and nearly all of whom fit a certain profile.

Perhaps no one had highlighted this profile as well as Sports Illustrated’s Zach Hicks, who’s annual “Build-A-Ballard” article series outlined the common traits of Colts draft picks throughout Ballard’s tenure at varying different position groups. This series was highly reliable at finding Ballard’s prototypes, that it helped Hicks identify the Colts 2022 2nd Round WR pick very early: Alec Pierce.

Heading into the 2023 Draft, here were the common traits that Ballard’s Wide Receiver Draft Picks shared according to Hicks:

Well built, 200+ pound players

Typically above six feet tall (Parris Campbell [by 1/8th inch] the lone exception)

Minimum of 35 inch vertical and 120 inch broad jump (Deon Cain lone exception)

Strengths: Elite athletes, speed and explosion, vertical threat, ability to adjust to difficult passes, preferably outside receivers

Weaknesses: Raw route running, drops, struggles beating press

Experienced blocker/willingness to block

Leadership/Team Captaincy/Senior Bowl (a Ballard trademark with the Colts)

But could this prototype be undergoing changes? Especially with a new Head Coach with a different Offensive scheme in Shane Steichen to draft for, a new type of Wide Receiver was drafted in Year 1 his tenure.

In Round 3 of the 2023 Draft the Colts selected Josh Downs, a 5’8 6/8” and 171 lb. Wide Receiver out of North Carolina. Downs is by far the smallest and lightest Colts WR Ballard has ever drafted. He wasn’t known as an outside vertical threat (though had a very high passer rating when targeted deep), but more so as a route runner extraordinaire in the slot in short to intermediate routes. His routes were crisp, his hands reliable, and despite his size he was very successful vs Press. Not exactly the “typical” Ballard Wide Receiver.

However Downs still fit the profile of explosiveness with a 38.5” Vertical and a 131” Broad jump. His speed was 4.48 on the 40, meeting athletic thresholds for his size, but his 10 yard split was a blistering 1.51.

In his 1st year, Downs set a new Colts Rooke Franchise record for receptions (68), while recording 771 yards and 2 Touchdowns. His highly translatable NFL-ready skillset made immediate impact on the Colts as their new starting slot WR with Parris Campbell leaving in the previous Free Agency period. After such a successful rookie year, could Chris Ballard with Shane Steichen at Head Coach be shifting his draft criteria a bit to fit more undersized Wide Receivers? Or was last year a one off pick as they needed a slot WR, not a X or Z on the flanks?

This past week, we gained some reason to believe in the former.

The Colts Coaching Staff heavily attended the Texas Longhorns Pro Day, in particular with a lot of coaches from the Offensive side of the ball. Wide Receiver coach and Colts legend Reggie Wayne attended, tipping the Colts cap at looking earnestly at the pair of Longhorns WRs sure to go early this draft: Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell.

AD Mitchell represents the prior Ballard WR prototype very well. A freakish athlete, at 6’2 205 lbs., Mitchell dominated in Combine testing, earning a 9.99 RAS (ranking 5th all time). Considering how highly Ballard has valued athletic testing, Mitchell certainly could be a target for the Colts.

Pair Mitchell’s athletic gifts with some of the more reliable hands in the draft (only 1.8% drop rate in 2023, 2nd best in the 2024 Draft Class) and a strong vertical profile (16 Average Depth of Target) makes him seem like a very strong fit for the Colts. The biggest factor holding Mitchell back from being considered a top Wide Receiver in the loaded 2024 draft class is inconsistent effort on routes. While he can sink his hips to make quick cuts at times, when he wasn’t the focus of the play he tended to round off his routes and “take plays off”. Not only is this his biggest flaw, but it goes against what Ballard has preached about what types of players he wants on the Colts.

Meanwhile Xavier Worthy might not fill the Colts previous prototype due to size limitations at 5’11 and a slender 165 lbs. But if this requirement is no longer part of prototype, Worthy brings something really unique and special to the Colts WR core if brought to Indy: Speed. While the Colts have some speed with Alec Pierce’s 4.41 speed being a 9.26 Weight Adjusted Speed Score as their deep threat, Worthy represents another level of speed altogether.

Not just any speed. As Elenor Roosevelt was quoted in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby:

HOT, NASTY, BAD-A** SPEED.

Xavier Worthy is quite literally the Fastest Wide Receiver in NFL Combine testing history. Pair this with insane 10 and 20 yard splits, lightning quick agility and feet, and a solid route running resume? It is easy to see the appeal.

While some might think Worthy should only be a slot Wide Receiver (and thus a poor fit for the Colts with Downs already in the role), Worthy only was in the slot for 31.1% of his snaps in college, maxing out at 39.9% in 2023. Josh Downs meanwhile was a slot 89% of the time. Worthy projects more as an outside 3 level threat who can slide inside. Worthy has hands almost as good as Downs in drop % (0.8% higher drop % despite a more deeper target share), though not as good in contested catch situations. But imagining what Steichen could scheme with that level of speed is a terrifying thought for opposing offenses, especially when paired with a healthy Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and Jelani Woods.

There is reason to believe that the Colts could value Worthy more highly than his Longhorn teammate.

It was Worthy, not Mitchell, who got a Top 30 visit with the Colts. While the visit doesn’t necessarily equal guaranteed Colt, it does mean the Colts want to take a further one on one look at Worthy.

Texas wasn’t the only Pro Day featuring a Wide Receiver that had a heavy Colts presence. Western Kentucky saw a large contingent as well, though Reggie Wayne wasn’t in attendance (but Offensive Quality Control & assistant Wide Receiver Coach Brian Bratton was there instead).

Malachi Corley was the main event that scouts from 31 teams came to see. The Wide Receiver was unable to test at the Combine, but was a strong performer at the Senior Bowl practices and had a fascinating profile that appeals to a lot of teams.

Similar to Worthy, he doesn’t fit the Colts prior height requirements at 5’10 5/8. And while Worthy had a better speed profile (0.24-0.26 seconds faster on the 40), Corley at 215 lbs. has a good +50 lbs. on Worthy. Shorter but thick with incredible agility and power in his running, getting Corley in space is a nightmare for defensive backs to tackle.

The former Hilltopper is a very different Wide receiver to any the Colts currently have, as he is built like a Running back but has Josh Downs-like short route running agility. He might not have the vertical or outside receiving history like most of the other potential Colts WR targets, but what he does have is the title of Yards After the Catch God. With 8.6 YAC per reception in 2023, he leads the entire 2024 Draft Class. His pro comparison is Deebo Samuel, and it isn’t hard to see why.

The closest the Colts have gotten to a Wide Receiver in the mold of Corley was Parris Campbell in the 2019 Draft, as he led his class with 9.9 YAC/r in 2018. With the Colts being highly represented to see the Hilltopper, Corley could be an interesting target for the Colts to gain another dangerous underneath threat.

However the Colts could still look for a bigger Wide Receiver in the Draft, as the Texas Pro Day wasn’t the only one that Reggie Wayne has attended. Reggie was in attendance for the LSU Pro Day, featuring Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. While Nabers is certain to go in the top 10 as one of the Big 3 WRs of this draft class (alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze), Brian Thomas Jr could be a very realistic round 1 target for the Colts.

Another freakish athlete, Brian Thomas Jr. certainly fits the Colts prior prototype in size and athletic testing. Thomas Jr. is in the conversation for best deep threat in this draft class, which could pair very well with Shane Steichen’s propensity for deeper route concepts that he showed previously as the Eagles Offensive Coordinator. 10 of his 17 touchdowns last year came on vertical route.

A big, strong, fast Wide Receiver with a basketball background to extend his catch radius. Might not have the route running crispness as other Wide Receivers, but his pure athleticism, good hands, and vertical threat gives him a ‘suped up Alec Pierce profile.

It is clear the Colts are looking very intently at the top of this Wide Receiver class. There are plenty of other Wide Receivers besides these three that could interest the Colts on the first 2 days of the Draft:

• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Keon Coleman, Florida State
• Xavier Legette, South Carolina
• Ladd McConkey, Georgia
• Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
• Troy Franklin, Oregon
• Ryan Flournoy, Southeastern Missouri State
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Jalen McMillan, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Roman Wilson, Michigan

They come in all shapes and sizes. As long as they are great athletes, we can feel confident the Colts will give them a look. Time will tell if the Colts size and skillset prototypes has potentially shifted this year if they continue to deviate from the Ballard WRs of yesterdraft.