Infante: Evaluating my 2024 NFL Draft accuracy

WCG’s lead draft analyst looks at his accuracy for the 2024 NFL Draft, compared to both the league itself and a notable draft analyst.

I consider NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah to be one of the best NFL Draft analysts in the game today.

I’m certainly not alone in that sentiment. With over 486,000 followers on Twitter, the former NFL scout for the Ravens, Browns and Eagles has become one of the leading voices in the draft community since joining the NFL Network in 2012.

Perusing my phone one day, our fearless leader Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. sent me a tweet from the official NFL account, breaking down Jeremiah’s accuracy in the 2024 NFL Draft.

To have 85.3% of the top 150 in the 2024 NFL Draft line up with your own is an admirable feat, and it shows that the league lines up pretty similarly with the way you evaluate talent.

Curious as to how my own numbers compared to Jeremiah’s, I decided to run the process of comparing the top 150 prospects on my big board to the top 150 picks in the draft. In addition to that, I wanted to see how many drafted players I missed watching tape on in my year-long process.

The Top 257

Out of the 257 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, I ranked 228 of them in my own top 257 for a percentage of just over 88.7%. There were 10 players in total whom I did not have any scouting report on, adding up to a percentage of just under 3.9%. The earliest player of that bunch to be selected was new Texans linebacker Jamal Hill out of Oregon.

Here is the full list of drafted players whom I had not scouted:

• Texans LB Jamal Hill
• Colts CB Micah Abraham
• Seahawks OT Mike Jerrell
• Buccaneers OG Elijah Klein
• Bills OT Travis Clayton
• Cardinals CB Jaden Davis
• Vikings C Michael Jurgens
• Vikings DT Levi Drake Rodriguez
• Colts DT Jonah Laulu
• Ravens S Sanoussi Kane

Three of the players I didn’t have notes on attended the Hula Bowl, and one player attended the Tropical Bowl. This is a strong indicator they were on the radars of NFL teams. That said, six of them didn’t partake in the all-star circuit, indicating I still have a bit more searching to do outside of the all-star game rosters. Every player who attended the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl or Combine, I had watched, regardless of whether they ended up drafted or not.

The Top 150

Out of the top 150 prospects, I had 124 of them placed in my own top 150, giving me a percentage rate of just under 82.7%. That’s behind all of Jeremiah’s percentages but one in the last five years, though the biggest difference between us is four prospects.

These are the players Jeremiah put in his top 150 who were selected in the top 150 but weren’t in mine:

• Commanders OT Brandon Coleman
• Cardinals TE Tip Reiman
• Buccaneers S Tykee Smith
• Eagles EDGE Jalyx Hunt
• Patriots OG Layden Robinson
• Raiders CB Decamerion Richardson
• Jaguars DT Jordan Jefferson
• 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo
• Chiefs TE Jared Wiley
• Lions RB/S Sione Vaki
• Commanders LB Jordan Magee
• Falcons LB JD Bertrand

Likewise, these are the players I put in my top 150 who were selected in the top 150 but weren’t in Jeremiah’s:

• 49ers CB Renardo Green
• Patriots OT Caedan Wallace
• Bears OT Kiran Amegadjie
• Browns OG Zak Zinter
• Vikings CB Khyree Jackson
• Jaguars OT Javon Foster
• Bengals TE Erick All
• Chargers CB Cam Hart
• Colts WR Anthony Gould
• Broncos RB Audric Estime

Finally, here are the players we both got wrong:

• Cardinals OG Isaiah Adams
• Raiders OG Delmar Glaze
• Cowboys LB Marist Liufau
• Packers LB Ty’Ron Hopper
• Chargers DT Justin Eboigbe
• Packers S Evan Williams
• Seahawks Tyrice Knight
• Seahawks TE A. J. Barner
• Bears P Tory Taylor
• Lions OT Giovanni Manu
• Bills RB Ray Davis
• Chargers CB Tarheeb Still
• Cardinals EDGE Xavier Thomas
• Raiders LB Tommy Eichenberg

The RAS Of It All

Utilizing Relative Athletic Score, I decided to see if the analytical testing profile for players I missed was any different than it was with Jeremiah’s.

Of the 26 players I missed in the top 150, the average RAS for players who tested was just over 8.09, which is considered an elite score. However, of the 12 players I missed that Jeremiah got right, the average RAS jumped to 8.20. The average RAS of players I got right that Jeremiah missed was just under 7.87.

In comparison, the average RAS score for the 26 players I had in my top 150 who didn’t end up in the top 150 of the 2024 NFL Draft, the grade was an average of just over 7.48. Jeremiah missed three players who ended up getting selected despite having RAS grades below 6.00, while I had four.

This typically means that, if I see a player in Jeremiah’s top 150 with an elite RAS score who isn’t currently in my top 150, there’s a pretty good chance that player gets drafted.

Takeaways

This exercise isn’t all to say that NFL teams are 100% perfect in their drafting. As Chicago Bears fans should know firsthand, each team makes its fair share of poor selections from time to time.

However, I wanted to see where my own analysis stood against one of the best in the business, and what things I could potentially learn from how his scouting process lines up with that of the typical NFL team.

Jeremiah has had more success than me in terms of prospects with higher athletic grades, and he’s been able to knock a few more players into the top 150. If there’s a player with a high RAS grade that’s in his top 150 but who isn’t in mine, I’ll make sure to pay some more attention to those types of prospects from here on out. That said, it was reassuring to me as an evaluator — albeit on a smaller scale — that we have somewhat similar hit percentages compared to how the NFL thinks.

This could all be made moot if certain players I ranked highly don’t pan out, or if players I missed on end up dominating the league for years to come. In the end, though, if I’m getting somewhat closer to reaching the accuracy rate of one of the best in the business, that’s something that will help me sleep at night.