How “wide open” is Atlanta with their first round pick?

The Falcons talk about it every year, but in reality we likely know the broad contours of their first round pick plans already.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Atlanta Falcons General Manager Terry Fontenot, a man who excels at saying plenty of interesting things while revealing nothing of substance, has indicated the team is “wide open,” when it comes to their first round pick,

Here’s the money quote from Fontenot, courtesy of Sport Illustrated’s Daniel Flick:

“It’s a strong draft,” Fontenot said. “We’re going to be staring at some really good players at eight, or whether we’re up a little bit or whether we’re back a little bit, and that’s the excitement. We’re wide open. And I love that about Raheem and the staff – we’re completely wide open.”

It’s easy to take Fontenot at his word here. This is an interesting draft class, one where the top-level talent bleeds into the bottom half of the top ten picks and the depth is outstanding at position groups like wide receiver and even arguably edge rusher. With additional draft ammunition acquired from the Jaguars thanks to the Calvin Ridley trade, the Falcons are well-positioned to move off of No. 8 if they want to. Atlanta’s varied needs, especially on the defensive side of the ball, demand this team have an open mind about the best way to take care of them, especially if they’re not willing to budge off the idea that they’re truly going to pick the best player available at 8. Remember, that may well not be a defender, if the Falcons are sticking to BPA in its purest form.

Of course, there’s cynicism from my end that exists because we hear a combination of “best player available” and “open for business” every year. Like Fontenot in 2023:

Or Fontenot in 2022:

Or Fontenot in 2021:

“There are still variables involved, so we know the players that we will be discussing there, and we can all anticipate the first three picks, but it has to actually happen,” Fontenot said Wednesday. “And then from that point we have to weigh the options of, do we trade back compared to the player we could get at 4, or if we trade back, what would be the value. So we have to weigh all those different variables and all those scenarios so we know the players that we’re talking about.

Or “Trader” Thomas Dimitroff basically every single year he was general manager:

“There are a number of positions that we’re looking at more than other years,” Dimitroff said. “I feel like in other years, we’ve been really homed in on potentially one or two, and we have a number of positions that we think can really benefit us at 26. … In our minds, it gives us an opportunity to consider — of course, we’ll always consider moving up — but also the idea of moving back as well because we feel there are a number of good players at 26 and beyond.”

I lay this out not to make fun of GM-speak in football—okay, maybe I’m making fun of it a little bit—but rather to illustrate that this is an annual talking point for Fontenot and the Falcons. The reality is that the Falcons are unlikely to move up with their quarterback in place and one terrific cornerback, edge rusher, or even wide receiver definitely falling to them at No. 8, and Fontenot has yet to really entertain a trade back from a top ten pick during his time as general manager. The most likely scenario is that the Falcons stay put at No. 8 and pick the best player available on their board, and even that will be tinged a little bit by need in the end, if I had to guess. The need on defense is simply much more dire than on offense right now, making a pick on that side of the ball more likely in my estimation, and there’s bound to be an impact defender the Falcons really like available at 8.

Could they move down? Yes, and the likeliest scenario there would be the Minnesota Vikings striking out on getting higher and still having a quarterback they want available, say J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix. The Raiders, who are widely rumored to be desperate for a young quarterback, might also be an option. The Falcons won’t go way down in the draft order, but a modest bump for a really compelling deal is the only scenario I can see unfolding on day one of the draft.

Where the “wide open” language rings figures to ring true is actually after that initial pick. The Falcons have a pair of third round picks and Fontenot has not been shy about making moves on the second and third day of the draft, notably moving up from No. 44 a year ago by swapping that pick and No. 110 for No. 38, which turned into guard Matthew Bergeron. The team’s stated desire to add young players to their secondary, the outsized need for pass rushers, the open admission that they’d like to add a third quarterback, and the simple need for plus talent across the board means Fontenot can and likely will jump around chasing players the Falcons believe to be great fits for the new coaching staff and this roster. I’d frankly be surprised if they made both third round selections.

The Falcons aren’t just blowing smoke here, in other words, and I expect Fontenot to make at least one if not multiple trades during this draft and field calls for the No. 8 pick. If you’re expecting Atlanta to move off their top ten selection, however, Fontenot’s track record to this point expects you shouldn’t be.