How trades with the Super Bowl teams could force the Cowboys to be more aggressive in free agency

This might the year the Cowboys are more persistent in free agency and there’s a good reason for it.

“We will be all-in.”

These were the words spoken by Jerry Jones a few weeks ago when he spoke to the media as he baited the hook that maybe, just maybe, the Dallas Cowboys would be more aggressive in free agency this offseason. Now, would we dare believe the leopard that is the Cowboys’ front office would suddenly change their spots after a long stretch of cautious free agency spending? Has Jerry finally become so fed up that he’s finally decided to shake things up?

Not likely.

The Cowboys will still build this roster the way they believe is best, but this offseason could be a little different than seasons past and we might have the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to thank for it (or blame, depending on how you look at it). That’s because last year the Cowboys felt compelled to wheel and deal as they uncharacteristically traded away three of their future draft picks. Just like that, three of their seven draft picks were gone.

• 4th round pick GONE – traded to San Francisco for Trey Lance
• 5th round pick GONE – traded to Kansas City to move up and select Eric Scott Jr.
• 6th round pick GONE – traded to Houston for Brandin Cooks

At the time, it didn’t seem like all that much. Day three draft picks are like darts so it’s not like the Cowboys are giving up premium draft capital for those acquisitions. At the same time, three draft picks are three darts the Cowboys no longer have.

On the plus side, the Cowboys will receive three additional draft picks this year, two of them from this year’s compensatory picks that will be awarded based on who they lost in free agency a year ago, and one of them from a pick they acquired from a trade previously made back in 2022.

• 5th round compensatory – thanks to losing Connor McGovern
• 6th round compensatory – thanks to losing Dalton Schultz
• 7th round draft pick – from Las Vegas as part of the Johnathan Hankins trade in 2022

With the net gains/losses, this leaves the Cowboys with the following draft picks for 2024 with their original picks shown in bold (compensatory picks are projections, courtesy of overthecap.com):

1st Round (pick 24)

2nd Round (pick 56)

3rd Round (pick 88)

5th Round (compensatory pick, roughly 174ish)

6th Round – (compensatory pick, roughly 214ish)

7th Round (pick 234 from Raiders)

7th Round (pick 245)

In total, the Cowboys still have seven draft picks, however, as you can see, there is a huge gap between when the Cowboys pick in the third round and their estimated compensatory pick in the fifth round. Roughly 86 players will come off the board between those two picks. This means the Cowboys will miss out on the players going in this range of the draft unless they again start wheeling and dealing.

Missing out on a fourth-round pick hurts when you consider how effective the Cowboys player personnel department has been at landing good players. Over the last eight drafts, the Cowboys have selected four players (Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Tyler Biadasz, and Jake Ferguson) who have turned into Pro Bowl players.

This also puts a lot more pressure to hit on their earlier picks since they’re missing out on the middle section of the draft. What type of effect will this have on the Cowboys’ draft strategy? Will they trade away an earlier pick in exchange for more picks later if they have their eye on guys slated to go in that range? Trading quality for quantity isn’t really an all-in type of move.

Or, since they know they’ll have fewer darts to throw at the draft, will this cause them to become more aggressive in free agency this offseason? The team has plenty of holes to fill with several of their own players expected to leave in free agency. Not only that, but they’ll also need a couple of new defensive players that fit more with what new defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer plans to do with his unit.

Jones has openly stated that they need to run the ball better, they need to stop the run better, and they need to be more physical. They can’t address all those areas with a smaller arrangement of draft capital. Free agency might really be a thing this year because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of other options if they truly intend to improve this roster.