Reviving a one loved annual article documenting the Texans receiver options
Oddly enough, the 2023 Receiving Targets Prediction post never saw the light of day. Either due to a malfunction publishing or the writer’s ineptitude, this article paused for the first time since 2018.
Not anymore. For those loyal readers, the 2024 Receiving Targets Prediction post is back in its truest form.
This annual post is among my favorite and most stressful of the offseason. Dolling out targets is like deciding how much candy your significant other will give to each of your children based on how much they like each one. It’s a strategic guessing game blending the art and science of analytical conjecturing for the upcoming 2024 NFL season.
Below is the unfinished article I discovered in the confines of the SB Nation writing platform compared to the actual totals that occurred throughout the season.
The biggest standout was my under-estimation of Nico Collins. His ability to find soft spots in the zone and devastate defense in the middle of the field were far and beyond my expectations. I was fairly spot on TE Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods’ utilization in the offense, but over-predicted sixth rounder Hutchinson’s contribution.
For the 2024 crop, this is the best arsenal of pass catching options ever assembled in Texans uniforms… even if those are new uniforms. The closest resembling previous team may have been the 2019 team featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Bruce Ellington, Lamar Miller and Keke Coutee.
One thing you won’t see on this list is Robert Woods. I currently don’t predict he will make the roster. Teams only carry six receivers and Woods contract is too heavy to take into the rest of the season. Cutting Woods will save $5M on the cap and free up the Texans to add pore talent during the season.
In total, I’m projecting Stroud to throw 553 passes this next season; 32 per game. He averaged 33 in his rookie season and I project the Texans to run the ball the same, if not more. With that, I’m please to provide the 2024 Houston Texans Projected Targets.
Stefon Diggs: 115 (6.8 targets per game)
Think this is high? Think again. The last time Diggs had less than 150 targets in a season was in 2019 when he played for the Vikings. If Diggs eclipses this projection, it will indicate Diggs’ complete dominance over the offense and an evolution in the Texans scheme. He’s got the talent, but with this many talented mounts to feed he may not reap the same rewards as in Buffalo.
Nico Collins: 93 (5.5 targets per game)
Dropping Collins’ targets in a contract year is fairly difficult. After a transcendent season, Collins should feel…. unappreciated in response to the addition of Diggs. It will be a two-person fight for a contract extension between Collins and Diggs. Projecting Collins to only receive five to six targets per game is cruel, but given the options at Stroud’s disposal it’s the best I can provide.
Dalton Schultz: 67 (4 targets per game)
Another player who will see their targets diminish due to Diggs arrival. Schultz’s contract extension is a sign of his impact on the offense and significance in the offensive scheme. A tight end who can block and stretch the defense via play action makes Bobby Slowik’s offense hum. The addition of Cade Stover will diminish Schultz utility down the stretch, but until then Schultz will remain one of C.J. Stroud’s primary targets.
Tank Dell: 65 (3.8 targets per game)
This one hurts. It’s incredibly low. I am mainly banking on Dell potentially missing several games either due to injury or future injury down the line. Dell’s hot streak before his season ending injury where he racked up 43 targets, 370 yards, and five touchdowns either will become standard practice or simply a flash in the pan. His off-field relationship warrants more than simply 65 targets in a season, but you tell me who to pull from?
Joe Mixon: 42 (2.5 targets per game)
The new starting running back is an exceptional receiving target. He’s been targeted 64, 75, and 48 times each of the last three seasons. So why a drop down to 42? Mainly due to a timeshare with Dameon Pierce, but also Stroud doesn’t look to the running back as much as other options. Houston will most likely scheme in Mixon’s targets.
Noah Brown: 41 (2.4 targets per game)
Houston resigned Brown in a relatively surprising move early in preseason. Brown exploded for 153 and 172 yards in back-to-back weeks as the primary receiver in the offense. His capability as a deep threat opened up the offense immensely – something Caserio deeply coveted and ultimately wanted back.
What Brown brings is another depth piece and down field target which you simply can’t have enough of to make a run in the playoffs (are we getting ahead of ourselves?).
John Metchie III: 29 (1.7 targets per game)
Metchie could easily surpass Brown as the fourth wide receiver, but it’s yet to be seen what his role in the offense is. He must prove himself more than a gadget receiver by gnawing snaps away from Tank Dell in the slot. Metchie III has earned another shot after a productive playoff and fully healthy offseason.
Caserio not drafting another wide receiver is a major vote of confidence for Metchie III. If he can develop into the productive and dynamic zone-busting wide receiver that he was drafted to be, Houston could have one of the most lethal offenses the league has seen.
Xavier Hutchinson: 25 (1.5 targets per game)
Hutchinson was employed as a speed option runner early in the season, but saw more action as the injuries piled up to the receiver position. Predicting a natural uptick in usage is easy, but finding a WR6 targets is not. His utilization will come in the red zone, on third down, and on four-to-five wide receiver package.
Cade Stover: 20 (1.2 targets per game)
Stover’s role is as much an enigma as any on the roster. He’s only played two seasons as a tight end, but I imagine his snap count will be significantly higher than his target count. Ohio State used Stover in motion to take opponents eyes off their talented receiving options. In Houston, he’ll be used in a similar manner. Stover will prove to be a weapon for the offense and a chess piece for years to come.
Dameon Pierce: 18 (1.1 targets per game)
It’s fairly uncertain what Pierce’s role will be in the offense. Projecting him to have a thousand yard season is unprofessional. Particularly with Mixon’s pass catching acumen, Pierce’s role as a receiver will be further diminished. I’d be surprised if Pierce receives one target per game, but I’m expecting Mixon to miss some time and Pierce have the spotlight for a game or so.
Brevin Jordan: 17 (1 target per game)
The former University of Miami tight end had a coming out party in the second half of the season and playoffs. He’s simply an athlete who’s been given enough time to develop into a capable blocker. He is employed as a wing back zone blocker who can
Andrew Beck: 12 (0.7 targets per game)
Is this the first time a fullback has made the projection list? I’m fairly certain. Even so, Beck was great as a blocking back this season who can also play tight end and catch. He’s a great fit for the offense, but will he be schemed out of the team in place of Stover? It’s yet to be seen, but there could be some duplicative use here. Even so, Beck is good for a red zone target or play action pass reception nearly once again.
Teagan Quitoriano: 8 (0.5 targets per game)
These could be wasted targets. Quitoriano has yet to establish himself in the offense due to his injury. When healthy, he’s a capable short yardage option. His wide frame and long arms serve him as a red zone target, but Quitoriano looks to be the odd man out on an offense with six quality receivers, a solidified fullback, three other tight ends, and two running backs who can catch.
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