Here we go again: The Falcons have weakest strength of schedule in NFL heading into 2024

Much will depend on what happens between now and the end of the summer, naturally.

Draft season can feel overly familiar. The fights over prospects, the swirling rumors, and the boundless possibility suggested by general managers plays out every year in slightly different formats. I see a lot of comments about pre-draft fatigue here, and it’s hard to blame anyone for that.

So let’s talk about another familiar story line, one that looks a bit further out, but also one that will spark some inevitable memories of last year. I’m referring to the Atlanta Falcons having one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the NFL.

You’ll recall that it was the case in 2023, a year where the Falcons blew that prime opportunity in an easy division to go 7-10, get Arthur Smith fired, and see starting quarterback Desmond Ridder traded away. It’s the case again in 2024, with Warren Sharp at Sharp Football Analysis delivering the news.

You’ll recall that one of the major reasons for optimism heading into 2023 was the easier schedule on paper after a pretty tough slate in 2022, in addition to the expected lift from Ridder over Marcus Mariota (yeesh) and how he’d be buoyed by the unstoppable collection of playmakers on that Falcons offense (oh dear). The offensive cratering ruined not just the optimism but also the season, and we all braced for a tougher slate for new head coach Raheem Morris and new quarterback Kirk Cousins.

At least here in mid-April, that slate is not on the horizon. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders need quarterbacks desperately and may be so-so teams even if they acquire one, while the Chargers are in what might be a rough year one under Jim Harbaugh before they inevitably settle into being a legitimate contender. The Commanders, Vikings, Steelers, and Giants all could be good, but head into the year with major question marks that come with turning over quarterback and struggling with down years. The NFC South is still a bit of a mess, with the Panthers probably improving, the Saints likely in the same averageish rut they’ve been in, and the Buccaneers will essentially be banking on a strong draft and a few small upgrades in free agency to continue their recent run of relative success. The Chiefs, the Cowboys, and the Eagles are all tough draws, but otherwise there are no standout, scary opponents on the horizon from where we sit right now.

Of course, much depends on what their opponents look like come September, not what they look like in April. There’s still time for a team like Washington to land a high-end rookie quarterback and transform their fortunes in a major way, just as there’s time for injuries to impact the fearsome There’s also the not-so-small question of how the actual schedule will shake out, given that lengthy road trips and December road grinds against cold weather teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Washington add a degree of difficulty. But it’s difficult to argue with the notion that the Falcons once again wound up with a relatively straightforward slate of opponents, one with a very small handful of brutal teams and a lot of manageable ones if the Falcons are any good.

Last year, this team was unable to take advantage of their schedule and a seemingly improved roster. This year, that badly needs to change that for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that we’re all very tired of watching losing football.