New England’s 2024 schedule is here and as is tradition, we’ve done our best to pick each game.
Does anyone else ever show up to a barbecue, a happy hour, a family get-together, or anywhere else you’d hang with friends or family you don’t see every day, and when they ask “how’ve you been?”, you find yourself responding “not much, just working and chilling”?
And then you realize: wait. There’s been a ton of things that’ve happened since we hung out last! Why did I say it’s the same old, same old? It’s been months and so much has changed!
That’s what looking at the last 6 months of the New England Patriots in totality will do to you. On a day-to-day basis, it’s just bring back Jacoby Brissett, re-sign a guy here, add some depth there, the draft was awesome, and now we stress out about the Bruins and the Celtics for a while. Taking in the offseason as a whole, though — and let this serve as a rebuttal to anyone calling the Patriots’ offseason boring/meh/signing up for more of the same — here’s how New England spent their summer winter vacation:
(roughly chronological order)
- ”Mutually parted ways” with the greatest coach in the history of the sport;
- Hired a new head coach who was already so hot right now in head coaching interviews last spring, before negotiating a new contract specifically designed to give him the keys to the kingdom when Bill Belichick’s reign ended;
- Hired Alex Van Pelt to man the vacant offensive coordinator position, who is anything but the Erhardt-Perkins disciple we’ve grown accustomed to since the early ‘00s;
- Traded the once-promising 1st-round QB Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 6th-round pick;
- Re-signed almost literally every in-house free agent, including but not limited to (and in no particular order):
1) RT Michael Onwenu
2) S Kyle Dugger
3) EDGE Josh Uche
4) WR Kendrick Bourne
5) TE Hunter Henry
6) EDGE Anfernee Jennings
7) WR/KR Jalen Reagor
…and a handful of others;
- Added crucial depth and situational pieces including but not limited to: Chukwuma Okorafor (OT), Antonio Gibson (RB), Sione Takitaki (LB), Austin Hooper (TE), Armon Watts (DT), KJ Osborn (WR), and a few others;
- Drafted a superbly talented quarterback, and plenty of weaponz of one sort or another to help the rookie signal-caller out;
- Last, but certainly not least, promoted Eliot Wolf from director of scouting to executive vice president of player personnel, much to the chagrin of scoops dorks nationwide.
That leads to so many 2024 questions! Not to go full Bill Simmons, but, first and inarguably foremost: When does Drake Maye finally get the nod to start? How does AVP’s offensive philosophy and play-calling translate to a brand new cast of offensive characters, almost all of whom are unproven at best? Can Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye combine for a < 1:1 touchdown:interception ratio? Will the defense continue their top-10 in DVOA, injuries be damned, warpath? Will whoever ends up winning the kicking job crack the top 31 in the NFL in field goal percentage? Can special teams be great again? Is any of this even enough to go 0.500 within the AFC East?
Lastly, before we get to the games: There’s no reason to do the Guardians of the Galaxy 4th-wall break “none of this means anything until the games start.” Sometimes, it’s OK to do things just because they’re fun and we have new information now that we didn’t before. You don’t get extra credit for doing the full-season exercise while snarkily noting that a 4th-wall-break inside a 4th-wall-break is 16 walls.
Let’s start with the good news: Week 1 isn’t the Miami Dolphins!
…and now the bad news: Week 1 involves the Patriots traveling to the land where chili is sweet and served on spaghetti.
Editor’s Note: the following assumes that Jacoby Brissett will start at quarterback, until otherwise noted, which will happen eventually
Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Patriots lose
My goal with these predictions is always to avoid just doing a basic rundown of “well, they added (Larry, Curly & Moe), and lost (Larry, Curly & Moe on the other side of the ball), therefore, Bengals +3”. That being said, while the Bengals franchise-tagging 6’4” touchdown machine Tee Higgins may not be the most prudent move in a 5-year window, it does extend their window of ‘peace through superior offensive firepower + mostly hope the defense and special teams is good enough’ for one more year, and as good as the Pats defense was at making something out of bubble gum and popsicle sticks in 2023, it’s hard to see the Pats winning either a shootout or a game that’s 17-14 late in the 4th here.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2 vs Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Patriots lose
New England’s new-look secondary that was promised last year – presumably some best-of-five combination of Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones at cornerback, and then Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and possibly Marte Mapu manning the safety spots – gets back-to-back gauntlets to start the season. Seahawks QB and former Patriots frenemy Geno Smith still averages the 11th-highest yards per attempt in the league, and the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett you remember from fantasy football is still here. 1st-round sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also in the mix and will almost certainly be used for more than dink-and-dunk purposes this season. For reference, Smith-Njigba’s average depth of target in 2023 was 6.1 yards. Kendrick Bourne, who rocks but isn’t anyone’s idea of a deep threat, had an ADOT of 10.4.
Seattle is also starting fresh after mutually parting ways with a legendary head coach, so, they’re a bit of a wildcard in that sense. But they’re also starting fresh with a lot more quote-unquote building blocks than the Patriots, so, New England starts the year in an 0-2 hole.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3 at New York Jets
Prediction: Patriots lose
Is it fair to assume a home win/away loss split with the New York Jets? Probably not. Is it what I’m going to assume because the New York Jets quite regularly boast superior firepower on paper, only to become less than the sum of their parts in alarmingly rapid fashion at some point before Halloween? Yes. The NYJ get this one, and the Patriots get their revenge before we send the kids out trick-or-treating.
Also, not like the Patriots need an excuse to lose to the presumably-at-least-at-some-percent-of-his-powers Aaron Rodgers, but, Thursday Night Football in Week 3 certainly doesn’t lend itself to crisp, clean, well-coached ball.
Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 4 at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Patriots lose
The gods are angry with us. Unless Kyle Shanahan is right and none of us will even be alive on Sunday, this game might be better spent doing yard work and checking your fantasy scores.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 5 vs Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Patriots lose
I’m starting to see how Las Vegas’s over-under of 4.5 wins for the New England Patriots in 2024 makes more and more sense. Even though it’s fun to laugh at our division rivals for their complete inability to handle the cold and current longest streak in the NFL without a playoff win, they still return everyone that made the Dolphins’ offense so terrifying for most of 2023, with the addition of Patriots draft crush Patrick Paul at tackle and spare parts Odell Beckham Jr and Jonnu Smith. If Miami succeeds in making this game a shootout, which seems entirely possible, it’s hard to see Jacoby Brissett and the guys keeping up.
Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6 vs Houston Texans
Prediction: Patriots lose
Captain Obvious checking in: barring disaster, Texans QB CJ Stroud is going to be the gold standard (non-Mahomes category) that rookie QBs are compared to for the next decade, Drake Maye included. Houston’s defense, though, was surprisingly stout in 2023, surrendering the 11th-fewest points per game in the league and throwing quite a few darts in free agency to replace productive guys like pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard and DT Sheldon Rankins. Unless the Stefon Diggs experiment goes horrifically wrong, the Texans are going to be one of those teams that’s annoyingly good at just about everything.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 7 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Prediction: Patriots finally win!
This is almost entirely a referendum on Trevor Lawrence, right? Lawrence has never been bad, but he’s also never really lived up to the hype that his skillset and talents promised. PFF gave Trevor his credit that in 2023, Lawrence’s big-time throw rate was one of the highest in the entire league…..and he still graded out as the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL, behind the likes of Geno Smith, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins. Everything about the Jaguars is meh, nothing is scary, and that’s why I’m perhaps foolishly giving the Patriots their first upset win of the season.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 9:30 a.m. ET
Week 8 vs New York Jets
Prediction: Patriots win!
2-6, baby! Like we said before, we’re giving the Patriots a home-and-home split with the Jets, purely because the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers moonshot is so top-heavy and all-or-nothing that I haven’t met a single person in real life or on the Internet who actually thinks it’ll work. So, Patriots somehow get a W here, probably in the kind of ugly, 16-13 fashion that just about every Jets-Patriots game has been the last few years.
Plus, I’m still enjoying making the joke that unless Aaron Rodgers and the Jets win the Super Bowl, Tom Brady is also a better GM than Aaron is. And hey, if it works and our hated enemies win their first Super Bowl since unleaded gasoline was introduced, we’ll have no choice but to respect how ballsy it was.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9 at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Patriots lose
This is probably going to be the one pick people disagree with the most, and that’s totally understandable. Tennessee’s been a popular punching bag for meaningless, boring football ever since that miracle AFC Championship Game run pre-Covid, and also for spending money the last couple offseasons in what looks like a Dumb & Dumber “here ya go!” fashion, but when you take a look at what they’re rolling into 2024 with….you can kind of see the vision.
- Beefed up the offensive line with 1st-round picks in back-to-back drafts (Peter Skoronski in 2023 and JC Latham this year).
- DeAndre Hopkins is still quite good, racking up 1,057 yards and 7 scores last year despite inconsistency at quarterback, which is kind of the story of his life.
- Calvin Ridley, assuming he actually suits up, is quite an interesting complement to Hopkins as a versatile offensive piece. Tyler Boyd also just joined up and probably projects as the big slot guy, which is a surprisingly stout WR trio.
- Tony Pollard, for as much as people LOL’ed at how much Tennessee paid him, gives the Titans two versatile, run-em-up-the-gut-or-split-em-out-wide options at RB alongside Tyjae Spears.
- …..And then there’s Will Levis, who’s either going to prove he can make some hay with that group, or confirm that he’s good at throwing it over the mountains and getting injured, and not much else.
The only wild card at this point that could swing this game in the Patriots’ favor is this point in the season is quite possibly when it’s finally time to give Drake Maye the nod, especially since the next week is…
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10 at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Patriots lose
If Drake Maye isn’t starting by now, the NFL just might send some nice men in black suits to Robert Kraft’s house with an offer he can’t refuse. Drake Maye vs Caleb Williams in November guarantees a chilly outdoor game between blue-chip rookies and a once-great dynasty that’s in year 1 of the rebuild vs a Bears team that’s going to be a trendy Super Bowl dark horse with all their new firepower like Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.
Da Bears’ defense was also a brick wall in 2023, boasting the best run defense in football, and also was one of the best in the league at picking off passes and forcing turnovers. The Patriots hanging in there and not getting their doors blown off here would be as good a sign of progress of anything.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11 vs Los Angeles Rams
Prediction: Patriots win!
This one’s pretty simple, even though the Rams are favored by 4 as of today; LA’s defense was pretty trash last year even with Aaron Donald (22nd in defensive DVOA), and now, obviously, he’s hung up his spikes and retired as one of the D-line GOATs. And for as much as Puka Nacua rocks, the Rams’ other big names on offense like Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are increasingly dice rolls to actually make it this far in the season in one piece. Is it foolish to bet against Sean McVay MacGyvering his way out of this jam too? Possibly. But there’s always at least one freaky win that the Patriots pull off every year despite having no business doing so, and I’m plugging that one in here.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12 at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Patriots lose
It’s Miami, in Miami. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13 vs Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Patriots win!
Maybe this is the hopium of the draft talking, but….the Patriots defense is actually pretty well-equipped to handle a dual-threat monster QB like Anthony Richardson, right? Between having several options at safety that can come down into the box and run with him like Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and maybe Marte Mapu can use his freaky gifts here as well, a stout D-line with the newly-very-rich Christian Barmore and waves of pass-rushers, if the pass coverage can hold up, the Patriots can make this game ugly in a hurry if they play their cards right.
Unless Drake Maye ends the game by throwing an interception into triple coverage, of course. There’s always that.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: Bye
In the words of Steve the Pirate from Dodgeball, “Garrr, this sucks”. Having the bye when the Patriots will almost certainly be eliminated or almost eliminated from the playoffs already helps nobody.
Week 15 at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Patriots win!
If the football gods are good, they’ll bless both Marvin Harrison Jr and Christian Gonzalez with good health until this game, which very well may be the most fun Patriots fans will have all season long. That said……the Cardinals were in the position to draft Marvin Harrison Jr because they were bad, and were also bad the year before that. They do not deserve the benefit of a doubt when they’ve won 8 games in the last 2 seasons, and if the Patriots offense is any degree of functional, they should have the juice to get the W here.
Sunday, Dec. 15th, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 16 at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Patriots lose
This one’s a bit sneakier than it looks on paper; of course, the Patriots’ 2023 win against Buffalo at Gillette Stadium ended up being their only home win of the season, and New England played the Bills pretty tight in Week 17 as well, “only” losing 21-27.
That being said, Diggs or no Diggs, I can’t in good conscience bet against Josh Allen and the Bills using the Patriots for target practice again.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Prediction: Patriots lose
Even with the Chargers being one of, if not the most hilariously snakebitten teams in the history of the sport, the reasoning behind them beating New England here is simple: Jim Harbaugh knows ball.
As much as it pains me to give him credit, it’s due; a coach with Jim’s resume vs Jerod and Alex and the gang, who are probably going to be in varying degrees of “figuring it out” all season…..LA gets the win here.
Time/Date TBD
Week 18 vs Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Patriots lose
In the past, the Pats might have been able to steal a W here because the Bills would already be resting their starters after locking up the division. But with the new playoff structure, and only one first-round bye, Buffalo will almost certainly have plenty to play for. And let’s be real; they seem to relish beating up on the Patriots as much as anyone. Maybe more.
Time/Date TBD
Are we having fun yet?!
If everything shakes out like our semi-educated guesses, that puts the Patriots at a miserable 5-12, which squares up with what pretty much every sportsbook has them projected at also (most books have the Pats wins over/under at 4.5). In the past, there have been so many parts of the Patriots that we assumed had varying levels of high floors; we knew Bill Belichick would probably have the defense cooking. We knew that with a couple notable exceptions, special teams, and the field goal unit in particular, would be the old reliable Honda Accord that we could count on to not let us down. For as infuriating as Josh McDaniels could be as a play-caller at times, he also frequently schemed it up to put guys in a position to succeed and had everyone mostly on the same page. And of course, the grizzled veterans like Matthew Slater, Devin McCourty, and Dont’a Hightower could be counted on to set the tone and hold everyone accountable on the field and in the meeting room.
All that, obviously, is gone. None of these picks mean that we think Jerod Mayo or Drake Maye or Alex Van Pelt or anyone else is a bust or will suck or anything like that, they’re just completely green and unproven. If last year was the end of the end, this year is probably gonna be similar to cleaning out the garage, where you can see little flashes of the vision, but for a while, it looks even messier than it did when you started. And then there’s the obvious truism that if Drake Maye is even halfway decent, none of this matters, it’s a house money season anyway, and the future is either bright, or so bright we’ll have to wear shades.
(Never mind that that song is actually about the Cold War and impending nuclear apocalypse. You know what I mean)
That said, there is one positive that we can glean from this situation: this season should be the one that purges the Yankees-Pats-Lakers-Duke posers from our fanbase for good.
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