Final Falcons draft predictions and mock draft

With just days to go until the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off, we’re here is here to deliver our final predictions for the Falcons, including a full 7-round mock draft with our best guess at Atlanta’s plans.

The end is nigh. With just days to go until the 2024 NFL Draft, the time has come for my final Atlanta Falcons mock draft of this draft cycle. This will be the one where I try my hardest to predict what the team will do—and I’ll be pretty happy if I get one or two picks right. There will be no trades in this mock either, even though I feel pretty strongly that Atlanta will be trying to trade down from the eighth overall pick.

If you’re looking for my final mock with trades, you can check out Monday’s mock draft.

Aside from any potential curveballs, like a looming tampering investigation and possible draft pick penalties, we should have a pretty good idea of how things are looking for the Falcons in this draft. I don’t necessarily have any insider info for these picks, just making predictions based on my experience with Terry Fontenot’s drafting. How much could it change with a (somewhat) new coaching staff in place? I guess we’ll find out!

Before we jump in to the mock, let’s take a look at the Falcons’ current haul of draft picks.

What are the Falcons current draft picks?

• Round 1, Pick 8
• Round 2, Pick 43
• Round 3, Pick 74
• Round 3, Pick 79 from Jaguars, Calvin Ridley trade
• Round 4, Pick 109
• Round 5, Pick 142
• Round 6, Pick 187
• Round 6, Pick 197 from Browns

This is the written version, but you can also find the mock draft in two alternate forms as well. On our YouTube channel:

The mock is also available on all your favorite podcast platforms! You can listen to it directly here:

Round 1, Pick 8: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama

The Falcons desperately need a primary edge rusher, which is why they’ve been linked to some combination of Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu from basically the start of the draft process until now. I have no doubt that Atlanta is hoping to grab one of those two edge prospects with their first pick. The questions are: which one, and will it be at 8 or after a trade down?

I personally believe the pick will be Laiatu Latu after a trade-down, which I had in my final “mock with trades” from Monday, but we’re not doing trades in this mock.

That means Atlanta is sticking at pick 8, which either means they want a particular prospect at 8 or they didn’t get a good enough offer to move down. If the Falcons want to make sure they get Dallas Turner—who remains the consensus top edge rusher on most boards—it will probably need to be with the eighth overall pick. I personally think Chicago might prefer Jared Verse, but the Bears are a significant risk to take an edge at 9—especially if the top receivers are off the board.

Despite what some think, I don’t have any issue with Atlanta taking Turner in the top-10. He seems to fit Fontenot’s prototype the best of all the top EDGE prospects, and doesn’t have the potential medical concerns of Latu. So if Atlanta does “stick and pick” at 8, I think the selection could potentially be Turner. Here’s what I had to say about his skillset in a previous mock draft.

We knew Turner was an elite athlete, but seeing the numbers really brings it home: 4.46 40 (99.6th percentile), 1.54 10-yard split (99.2%), 40.5” vertical jump (99.2%), and a 10’7” broad jump (96.9%). Add to that a good weigh-in at nearly 6’3, 247 and with better-than-expected length at 34 3/8” arms and you’ve got a prototypical 3-4 OLB.

Turner has more technical work to do than Verse and Latu and isn’t as reliable against the run at this stage. However, Turner has the superior traits and is a full two years younger than either. He’s got the potential to become an elite EDGE1 in the NFL, but will require a bit more patience and he may need to begin his rookie season as a designated pass rusher. It’s worth noting that Turner is a much better fit in a 3-4 like the Falcons intend to run with Jimmy Lake, so that helps his profile even further. If the Falcons believe in their coaching, they could easily land on Turner as the highest-upside target of the top EDGE prospects.

Round 2, Pick 43: CB T.J. Tampa, Iowa State

After addressing EDGE, the Falcons have a big need at CB2 across from A.J. Terrell. The team has also not yet made a decision on Terrell’s future in Atlanta. He could still be extended prior to the season, or allowed to play out the fifth-year option before a potential extension in 2025 or a tag-and-trade scenario develops. No matter the team’s approach with Terrell, getting another starter in the building will make things significantly easier.

I’ve been a fan of T.J. Tampa’s fit in Atlanta throughout the process, and I see no reason to waver from that now. If Atlanta is picking here at 43, he’s got a strong chance to end up a Falcon. Here’s how I described Tampa’s game in a previous mock draft.

Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa is a perfect fit in the zone-heavy coverage scheme Atlanta will likely run under Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake. He’s big (6’1, 189), long, and aggressive in disrupting routes and passes thrown in his vicinity. Tampa is a surprisingly fluid mover for his stature and combines his movement skills with outstanding instincts to make plays on the football. I like his physicality as a tackler and when playing press coverage, and he’s got enough scheme versatility to fit wherever needed. That includes experience in the slot, which makes him an ideal addition to Atlanta’s secondary who can find a role just about anywhere.

Round 3, Pick 74: QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

This is a very controversial pick, and it’s firmly a predictive pick—not a pick that I’d necessarily choose to make if I was running the show. Atlanta has been quite public about their interest in adding a QB3 behind Kirk Cousins and Taylor Heinicke, and they’ve shown significant interest in two particular quarterbacks: Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler. While I think the Penix interest is legitimate, he’s not likely to be on the board when they’d consider taking him. Rattler, on the other hand, is likely to be around in the mid-Day 2 range—where the Falcons seize the opportunity to grab the intriguing developmental prospect.

Rattler has had an up-and-down career, starting with some terrific flashes early for Oklahoma, some mid-career struggles, and finally a strong final season with South Carolina. This is not the same Rattler from years ago—his game has improved markedly, and he’s no longer the wild gunslinger with no regard for ball security who folks seem to remember. I think his arm is fairly average, as is his athleticism. He’s good at making plays outside of structure, but isn’t a dynamic runner. His size also leaves something to be desired at just 6’0, 211. I’m just not sure I see starting quarterback potential here. Rattler honestly reminds me a bit of Heinicke, but he’s nowhere near as athletic.

Personally, I would pass on adding a quarterback in this class. I don’t think the Falcons will.

Round 3, Pick 79: WR Malik Washington, Virginia

Pick acquired from Jaguars (Calvin Ridley trade).

While I like the additions of Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, the Falcons still have work to do at wide receiver. I’m not sure Moore is the type of high-volume, reliable slot presence that Atlanta is looking for—he may be more of a WR4 “creative usage” player when it’s all said and done. Even if Atlanta would like to give Moore a shot to start, I think adding another good slot receiver prospect to compete and provide depth is important.

I’ve never been quiet about my love for Malik Washington, and I believe there’s interest from the Falcons as well. Here’s how I described Washington in a previous mock draft.

Washington was one the most productive receivers in college football in his final season, transferring from Northwestern to Virginia. It’s easy to see why he emerged as the focal point of the passing game: Washington is an explosive mover with terrific lateral agility, contact balance, and some of the best hands in the class. He can make plays at all three levels of the field, although his deep speed is not elite for the NFL. Washington generated a ton of yards-after-catch at Virginia, making the most of short targets and the quick game. He’s on the small side (5’8.5”, 191) and ran a pretty limited route tree, and is likely to be limited to the slot in the NFL as a result. Still, Washington’s talent is undeniable, and Atlanta needs multiple capable slot receivers in their shift into an 11-personnel heavy offense.

Round 4, Pick 109: SAF Malik Mustapha, Wake Forest

Safety is another spot, much like wide receiver, that I’d like to address earlier in the draft. If Atlanta doesn’t trade back (and/or decides to spend a top-100 pick on a QB), it probably won’t happen. Still, this is a good safety class with plenty of talent still to be had early on Day 3. One of the big risers this offseason has been Wake Forest’s Malik Mustapha, who has some electric tape that is impossible to ignore.

Mustapha is an ultra-aggressive safety with a punishing mentality. While his overall deep speed is fairly average, Mustapha has elite closing burst and some exceptional jumps (9.39 RAS). He’s got some size constraints (5’10, 210) and is still developing his instincts and ability in coverage. I love Mustapha’s play speed and demeanor, and think the ceiling of a starting safety is there. He may need to play in the box to start his career, but given his athleticism, could eventually develop into a more versatile safety.

Round 5, Pick 143: WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice

The Falcons have been basically impossible to predict on Day 3, but I’ll try anyway. This is a deep receiver class, and the Falcons need to continue adding talent to fill out the roster. I’ve long been a fan of Luke McCaffrey’s fit in Atlanta, and his build gives him a path to immediate playing time on special teams while he grows into a role on offense. Here’s what I had to say about McCaffrey in a previous mock draft.

Yes, Luke McCaffrey is the brother of Christian McCaffrey. He’s a former college quarterback who converted to wide receiver, and you can tell he understands the finer points of the position and where he needs to be to help his QB. McCaffrey has excellent lateral mobility and good size at nearly 6’2, 202, along with outstanding hands and the physicality to survive contested catches and middle of the field work. He’s just not a super high-end prospect thanks to a lack of elite speed, and a relatively limited route tree owing to only a few years playing the position. I still think McCaffrey is WR3/4-level prospect and can easily outperform his draft stock, along with providing an immediate boost to Atlanta’s slot receiver rotation.

Round 6, Pick 187: DB Jaylin Simpson, Auburn

This is a coaching staff that values the secondary and has a lot of experience in developing players, which is why I think the Falcons will be looking for developmental cornerbacks and safeties in this range of the draft. And if they can’t decide between the two, why not take a player who has experience with both? That’s Auburn’s Jaylin Simpson, who currently possesses a corner’s build at 6’0, 179, but has shifted between the two positions extensively.

Simpson has tremendous length (over 32” arms) and high-level athleticism (7.42 RAS), with a 4.45s 40 and elite jumps. His short-area quickness and explosiveness are his best traits, along with his natural skills as a ballhawk—Simpson posted 4 INTs in 2023 and 2 in 2022. While Simpson does not lack aggression, his small stature leads to issues in run support and he’s still learning how to take good angles to the ball from a deep alignment. I like Simpson’s potential to grow into a ballhawking cornerback with some safety flexibility, but he’ll need to pack on some additional mass to make it in the NFL.

Round 6, Pick 197: DT Fabien Lovett, Sr., Florida State

Pick acquired from Browns.

Look, can we really trust that Eddie Goldman will make it to Week 1? The answer is no, and I trust the Falcons know that too. So why not grab a guy who was comped to Goldman (by NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein) towards the end of the draft? Fabien Lovett Sr. is an ideal nose tackle for the switch back to the 3-4 base, and he won’t cost significant resources to acquire. Here’s what I said about Lovett in a previous mock draft.

A big (6’4, 315), strong, and exceptionally long (35.5” arms) prospect, Lovett is a dominant run defender who makes his living by eating up space and taking on double teams in the trenches.

Lovett is not a flashy player by any means—he does the dirty work on early downs and does it very well. He is exceptionally powerful and difficult to displace at the point of attack, creating opportunities for those around him to make plays. Lovett also uses his hands well to manipulate blockers and make sure that he’s disrupting the flow of the play. He is not a player who will be stuffing the stat sheet or contributing much as a pass rusher, but he’s got the potential to be a long-term starter at nose tackle who will be a consistent force against the run.

What do you think about this potential draft class for the Falcons? Leave your final draft takes in the comments below!