Eagles Mailbag: Which corner to back?

Pressing needs

We had a couple of cornerback specific questions in our pre-draft mailbag, so it made sense to put them in their own thing. #content

I was one on the early hype train for Mitchell but I think the NFL may not view him as the top CB, who is? or Who will be the 1st taken? – grantspectations

I think on Thursday Terrion Arnold is CB1 and Mitchell is CB2. Let’s run through the options:

–Cooper DeJean, some teams are going to see him as a safety, and not just because he’s white. That’s not a player who goes CB1. The way that Iowa used DeJean makes him a tough evaluation. In the majority of his snaps, at least in the games I watched, he lined up 5+ yards off the WR, then sidestepped in zone coverage with his back to the sideline until the very end of the route. Not his fault that Kirk Ferentz continues to play his own version of football, but when trying to project how he’ll do in man, let alone how he will do playing press, it forces you to put a lot of faith in a small amount of plays. His season ending injury doesn’t help him either. At 22 if the pick is DeJean over McKinstry, I’d be good with that, but I wouldn’t trade up for him.

–Kool-Aid McKinstry entered the season as CB1 and didn’t improve his play, but his play was already high level. But I can’t get past the fact that he has as many interceptions against FBS teams in his career as you and I did in ours. His two interceptions were against FCS programs Mercer in 2021 and Austin Peay in 2022. Sports Info Solutions has him with the second worst hand on ball percentage of any of the CBs they tracked in this class, though his passes defensed to target ratio was above average. His injury and surgery certainly don’t help. He does have the strongest “wag your finger at the offense after the QB overthrows a pass to WR who had you beat” gene of the top CBs. I think McKinstry will be a good player, the position is an extremely volatile one and he was really good in 2022 and 2023. But he won’t be first among CBs. I would not be surprised if he isn’t taken until the 2nd round.

–Nate Wiggins is simply too light. There is a lot to like about his game, but teams will hunt matchups on him. Against FSU this year he spent most of the game matched up against Johnny Wilson and Wilson had a strong game. Wiggins showed up to the Combine a few pounds lighter than expected so he could put up an eye popping 40 time even though everyone already knows he can run. He got injured while running his second 40, which leaves a sour taste. JJ McCarthy also needed some bulk and showed up at the Combine heavier than expected. It is easy to see Wiggins not lasting in the NFL due to his frame because a CB with a target on him is no CB. Wiggins is a first round pick, and might even be CB2, but 173 lbs is not going CB1.

-As a college football fan I greatly respect that Quinyon Mitchell stayed at Toledo rather than transfer to a Power 5 team for an NIL payday. With the way college football is going and will be, he might be the last non-Power 4 non-OL taken in the 1st round. That sounds hyperbolic but Mitchell, Marshawn Kneeland, and Malachi Corley are the only non-OL players (top OL usually but not always stay at their program) from G5 programs that are considered likely day one or two picks. In 2018 five went in the first round.

The level of competition makes his evaluation difficult, as this season he played against just one WR who might be drafted this year: Isaiah Williams of Illinois, a 5’9” slot receiver projected as a late pick. Further, 4 of Mitchell’s 6 career INTs came in one game, against 3-9 Northern Illinois’ backup QB in 2022. However he did have the highest passes defensed rate, and the 4th best hand on ball rate. It’s great that he gets to balls, and that he had a strong week at the Senior Bowl, but if he can’t finish the job in the least talented FBS conference, how will he look in the NFL? Mitchell also played off of WRs a ton just as Cooper did; and Mitchell had some pretty bad low effort plays, one on a punt fake vs Central Michigan, and on another I had him down for a big play given up vs Bowling Green.

The biggest mark against Mitchell is that he is the prospect among the top tier CBs, and significantly so. When the season starts Mitchell will be 23, Arnold, DeJean, McKinstry, and Wiggins will be 21 (McKinstry turns 22 during the season). Two years is a huge gap. When it’s close on talent, teams will almost always draft the younger player, especially one who is 21 rather than 23.

–Terrion Arnold is a playmaker. While he did have the most targets of any of the top CBs and fourth highest target rate among Combine CBs, he was also playing against a boatload of future NFL players at WR and QB, and he made them pay with 5 interceptions and 12 passes defensed. He also had 6.5 tackles for loss, Chop Robinson and Marshawn Kneeland had 7.5. A quarter of Arnold’s snaps this year came in the slot, which showcases his versatility.

The biggest issue with Arnold is that he ran a 4.5 at the Combine, which was middle of the pack, though he did have an excellent 1.52 10 yard split and otherwise tested well.

I don’t fault anyone for having Mitchell as CB1, he’s an excellent prospect. But on Thursday I think it’s Arnold that goes first.

Assuming we’re talking corner, not slot, is there an outright best in your opinion? Or does scheme change the answer to that question? If scheme matters, who would be your best fit for the Eagles? – mofwood

For top prospects, I don’t pay much attention to scheme fit because the coaches come and go. The play caller turnover in the league right now is ridiculous. 12 head coaches, 25 offensive coordinators, and 24 defensive coordinators are new to their teams since the start of 2023. Nick Sirianni is the 11th longest tenured head coach. The Eagles are on their third OC in three years and fourth DC in three years, and might have a new head coach in a year and would then get to go through a whole new set of coordinators all over again. And everyone borrows from everyone so much anyway, half the league has a former Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan assistant, or McVay or Shanahan themselves, as their play caller. Most of the league is playing a version of the same defense. The Eagles just went from a Vic Fangio disciple to Vic Fangio himself!

Scheme fit? For top prospects just worry about if the guy can play at the NFL level. If your play caller can’t make it work either the coach or the player aren’t good enough, or both.

But I’m not Howie Roseman. Terrion Arnold and Cooper DeJean are terrific players, they’re both playmakers, both have experience playing outside and slot, and Vic Fangio has moved his CBs around the field. Mitchell and McKinstry played virtually exclusively on the outside but probably can be moved around the field. Wiggins can’t. For what it’s worth, Arnold, McKinstry, DeJean, and Wiggins all met with or visited the team, if Mitchell did it went unreported.

For the Eagles my order for the top CBs would be Arnold, DeJean, McKinstry, Mitchell, Wiggins.

All of this will be moot if they draft an offensive lineman.