Drafting against consensus, Part 4

It’s a complicated story

In the first article in this series, I began to explore the relationship between those NFL teams that have regularly drafted against consensus boards over the past five years, and whether that fact might have any causal relationship to their success, with a closer look at the 49ers.

In part 2, I did a deeper dive on the LA Rams, who appear to have had a pretty successful record of “reaching” in the draft, but who haven’t had a ton of first and second round picks.

Part 3 was a closer look at the Dallas Cowboys, who have made something of a recent habit of reaching in the first and second rounds.

The deeper I’ve dug into team-specific drafts, the more confused I’ve become, so in this installment, I’ve decided to look more closely at the “reachiest” draft picks from across the entire league.

In this case, I’ve been able to rely completely on the work of Arif Hasan at the The Athletic, who has been aggregating public big boards for years, and comparing them to draft classes. Not focusing on a singular team, this methodology gives me enough players each year to try to make some sense of potential trends.

2022

I decided to start with players who’d been in the league for at least two years, so that there’s a bit more time for them to have become established. The list of the biggest reaches against consensus in the 2022 draft are below:

Five of nine of these reaches have matched or exceeded the performance of their near-draft (next 16 players) peers. They haven’t wildly exceeded their peers, but they’re still early in their careers.

One thing you’ll see here – and. later throughout prior drafts – is that special teamers (K, P, LS) tend to be boom or bust. If they work out, like Camarda, they’re generally a good late round investment, even as an apparent reach. If they don’t, they tend to flame out quickly, like York.

Hard to say a ton else about this draft at this point, other than that “consensus reach” doesn’t mean “destined to fail” at all.

2021

This class now has three years as pros. In total, six of 15 (40%) of the players have met or exceeded the performance of their peers. Not great, but not terrible.

If I’m looking for any threads between this draft and the 2022 draft – and I am – I notice that the Bengals have “reach hits” in both drafts. I also notice that a lot of the top 100 “reaches” (5 of 6) are “misses.”

2020

With four years in, the players below, still in the league, already have longer careers than many NFL players ever will. It should be mentioned that this is the so-called “COVID class,” where serious disruptions to the conventional evaluation process may have impaired the availability of draftee information to both public and private evaluators.

In the 2020 class, only four of fifteen (27%) top “reaches” have met or exceeded the performance of their peers.

The Raiders – in the early rounds – and Patriots – in the later rounds, absolutely bombed their reaches in this draft. For the Raiders, the entire draft, with the exception of 4th round guard John Simpson, was essentially a loss.

The only other pattern I see is that 5 of 7 (71%) of top 100 reaches have underperformed, which seems notable.

2019

This “reach” class is, in some respects, the most interesting of those examined. Eleven of fifteen of the top reaches in the draft have matched our outperformed peers. Several in a fairly significant way. Three of the four who haven’t – Ferrell, Sample, and Abram – are still active in the league, and could potentially close their gaps over time.

Looking at this draft and the following two, it’s easy to see why Mike Mayock was fired after the 2021 season: He gambled, and lost, with at least four first round picks. I consider the Mayock Raiders the cautionary tale for irresponsible reaching.

Other trends? Back to back successful reaches for the Seahawks and Falcons, and two solid reaches for Dave Gettleman in one of his last drafts for the Giants.

Conclusion

So what can be taken away from all this? Clearly, “reaching,” even reaching pretty excessively, in the draft is not necessarily a death sentence – though it can get you fired. There are also instances where it can absolutely pan out.

There are some faint team-specific signals, but not much that I see (beyond the Raiders, the third reachiest team in the league over the past five years).

If you’re taking a specialist on Day 3, don’t really worry about whether he’s a reach, just make sure you get the right one (and don’t pull a Belichick and think you’re going to find a kicker who every other living scout has missed).

I’ll also mention that really reaching for tight ends seems somewhat questionable. Four of the six identified above didn’t match their peers. That failure, however, is consistent with the league’s difficulty – more generally – at identifying TE talent in the draft, as well as tight ends’ generally delayed development in the pros.

If you see anything else, or have suggestions for other investigations, let me know in the comments.