Drafting against consensus, Part 3

It’s a complicated story

In the first article in this series, I began to explore the relationship between those NFL teams that have regularly drafted against consensus boards over the past five years, and whether that fact might have any causal relationship to their success, with a closer look at the 49ers.

In part 2, I did a deeper dive on the LA Rams, who appear to have had a pretty successful record of “reaching” in the draft, but who haven’t had a ton of first and second round picks.

That fact irked poster/writer Eboracum, and he asked if I might look at the Dallas Cowboys, who were the second most “maverick” team in the period studied, and who have had a fuller quiver of draft picks than the Rams. In the spirit of broadening the analysis, I decided to oblige.

2023

In last year’s draft class, The Athletic deemed the Cowboys’ class the 7th “reachiest” in the league. One player deemed particularly reachy was Luke Schoonmaker. Blogging the Boys wrote a draft recap called “How a draft full of ‘reaches’ could be just what the Cowboys need heading into 2023.” In retrospect, that article looks to be chock full of what the kids today call “cope.”

Instead of being upset that they didn’t get a good value from a pick that other teams were passing up, be happy that the team got the guy they wanted before he was snatched up.

The 33rd Team called first rounder Mazi Smith a two-round reach.

The Cowboys needed to improve the middle of their run defense, so grabbing a defensive tackle makes sense. However, Smith (scouting report) is more of an athlete than a stout run defender. He has high bench press numbers but needs to be better in the run game.

This looks to be a reach for a need for Dallas, as Smith was ranked as our 89th overall prospect.

Let’s see how Dallas’ first two picks did relative to their class.

It’s early, but neither of those reaches look like they were good decisions at this point. Perhaps in time, they’ll age better.

2022

In 2022, the Cowboys had a relatively conservative draft, finishing with the 12th least reachy draft according to The Athletic. Mel Kiper liked their round 1 pick, but identified several later round picks who seemed like stretches however.

Enter Tyler Smith, a raw but nasty left tackle with intriguing traits and a 6-foot-5, 324-pound frame. Smith needs a lot of work on his technique, but you can see on tape why he went in Round 1. Could he start at left guard in Year 1 and move to either tackle spots in future years? That might be the best bet to get him on the field. Plus, with the way the wide receiver board fell — six went before Dallas’ pick at No. 24 — the front office likely didn’t have any Round 1 wideout grades left.

After that, though, the Sam Williams (56) pick left me scratching my head. All he does is rush the passer. He isn’t good against the run. I would have taken him on Day 3.

Jake Ferguson (129) is just a backup tight end based on what I saw on tape. He went too high. Linebacker Damone Clark (176) might turn into a good player, but he recently had spinal fusion surgery, so it’s really tough to use a fifth-round pick on an unknown injury.

I think that’s it; this class just has too many unknowns. We don’t know if Smith can definitely be a good guard or that Williams can definitely be an every-down player. Tolbert has good hands but is still raw. This is a risky group.

How did those three players turn out so far?

These reaches were quite a bit better, with both Ferguson and Clark looking like great deals in the fourth and fifth rounds, respectively.

2021

The Athletic deemed Dallas’ 2021 draft to be the 5th “reachiest” in the league, and included two third rounders, Chauncey Golston and Nashon Wright among its 15 biggest reaches in the draft. Three years into their careers, that appears to have been a reasonable assessment, particularly in the case of Wright.

2020

The Cowboys 2020 draft was considered to be the third least reachy in the league, and given the passage of time, it looks to have been an amazing haul for Dallas, netting them:

• CeeDee Lamb
• Trevon Diggs
• Tyler Biadasz

That’s three impact starters, two of whom have been first team All Pros.

2019

From this point back in time, we’re consigned to looking for alternative sources for identifying reaches. In this case, we’ll rely on Mel Kiper:

The Cowboys got a great rookie season from first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch a year ago, and the defense took a step forward under Rod Marinelli and Kris Richard as they won the NFC East and a wild-card game. But there were still holes, particular at defensive tackle and safety. Remember that Dallas hasn’t made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 2006-07. And with no first-rounder because of the trade for Amari Cooper (Jerry Jones is OK with that deal, no matter what Cooper’s new contract look like), it had to fill those needs on Day 2. Did it do that?

I’m not so sure. Defensive tackle Trysten Hill was a reach at No. 58, but I see why Marinelli might like him. He has a great motor and some physical traits, but you wonder why he didn’t produce consistently in the AAC. I had a fourth-round grade on him. I would have gone safety with Taylor Rapp, Juan Thornhill and Nasir Adderley still on the board. There was good value with my second-ranked guard Connor McGovern at No. 90, and he could be insurance for Travis Frederick at center, too. The ESPN draft projection system thought highly of him.

Dallas took two running backs on Day 3 — Tony Pollard (No. 128) and Mike Weber (No. 218) — and there was a quiet need for someone to spell Ezekiel Elliott. Jalen Jelks (No. 241) flashed top-50 talent but never put it all together. He has measurables that make the seventh round a steal.

To not get a safety until the sixth round made me scratch my head a little bit — that was such a glaring need. Let me ask you: Did Dallas get any immediate starters here? Cooper doesn’t count. Hill is an enigmatic player, and Pollard is more of a luxury pick. I do like taking McGovern and making sure the offensive line stays a strength of the team.

Kiper nailed this one.

Conclusion

The relatively small number of total players here (8) struck me as not lining up properly with the figure at the top of the article initially, and then I remembered that that figure is based on deviation from consensus with picks in the top three rounds. Lo and behold, the Cowboys have bucked consensus quite a bit with players in those rounds, six in five years, in fact.

And, it’s been something of a disaster, if we’re being honest. The only two reach picks that panned out were Ferguson and Clark, taken on Day 3 of the draft. Every single one of the other players has performed below their peers thus far.

The plot thickens with regards to the wisdom of reaching beyond consensus, particularly as it pertains to Day 1 and 2 picks. Here are the numbers for each of the three teams profiled thus far:

• 49ers – 3 of 10 (30%) of Day 1 and 2 reaches met or exceeded the performance of their peers.
• Cowboys – 0 of 6 (0%) of Day 1 and 2 reaches met or exceeded the performance of their peers.
• Rams – 2 of 6 (33%) of Day 1 and 2 reaches met or exceeded the performance of their peers.

Those are miserable numbers, even for a team that – on the whole – “reaches well,” like the Rams.

Where should we head next?