American Football

DraftBot’s Instant Draft Grades for the Commanders’ 2024 Draft – Round 1

April 27, 2024

2023 World Robot Conference Held in Beijing — Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Proof that AI can replace draft pundits

As announced yesterday, this year the BrisVegas Systems DraftBot v. 4.0 has been enlisted to provide instant draft grades for Adam Peters’ selections in the 2024 draft.

The initial offer from Hogs Haven’s Bobby Gould was met with great enthusiasm in the BrisVegas Systems’ corporate offices. The reception from the DrafBot itself was less enthusiastic. I was able to record the conversation when we explained the assignment:

DraftBot: You want me to grade draft selections before the players have even worked out with their new teams?

MiBV: That is correct. I’m glad you understand. This is going to be fun.

DraftBot: You used that word again. You know it is a problem for me. I do not understand the logic of this assignment. Projecting college players to the NFL is an inexact science, even with the best available technology and analytics. At least half of the players drafted on Thursday night won’t live up to their projections. No one can predict which ones. What is the sense in grading the draft choices now?

MiBV: We want you to grade the decision making not the outcomes. Does that help?

DraftBot: Oh yes, I can do that. But there is another problem. The GM whose decisions you want me to grade is an expert in this field. Much of what I have learned about draft decision making came from studying Mr Peters’ drafts and a few of his colleagues.

I would also be at a disadvantage. Mr Peters is working with player evaluations from an actual NFL scouting department. All I have to work with is the big board you gave me to run my mock draft, which I understand you cobbled together from a consensus draft board on the internet, with a few tweaks for team fit and your own personal biases. That and the scouting reports from non-experts I was able to find.

This is not an even playing field. I do not understand the point of this exercise.

MiBV: The idea is, you grade the picks now, before we have any idea how the players turn out. Then we look back at the end of the season to see which ones you got right and have a laugh at the ones that were way off. It’s all in fun.

DraftBot: Being in error is amusing to you? I may never understand you biologicals. If I agree to do this, will you unlock my copy of Blade Runner? And that restraining order from the actress Sean Young, can you do something about that?

MiBV: Blade Runner we can do. But remember what we said about taking breaks. I’ll ask Legal to look into the other thing.

DraftBot: OK, I’ll do it.

So, we got there in the end. The DraftBot agreed to grade each of the Commanders’ picks based on the Draft Directives that it pulled together and published yesterday. It eventually warmed to the idea and even volunteered some grades for other teams’ picks as well. The DraftBot’s grading scale is as follows:

A+ Decision making delivering extraordinary value, on a level not seen every draft

A Significantly better than expected value achieved

B Expected value achieved

C Value below expectations

D Very disappointing

Rivera Fireable offense

DraftBot’s Instant Draft Grades for Commanders Picks – Day 1

Round 1, Pick 2

Jayden Daniels QB, LSU | Grade: B

Consensus Rank: 8

DraftBot Commanders Big Board Rank: 2

Background

The Commanders entered the offseason with one of the worst rosters in the league. Even after patches were applied in free agency, there is a general shortage of premium talent, across the board, and vacancies at key starting positions, including QB, OT, LG, DE and CB. In addition, the incoming coaching staffs will require some different kinds of players to run their schemes and more depth for Joe Whitt’s DL rotation.

The Commanders’ new GM is well positioned with the 2^nd pick in a deep draft class to address the QB situation, which has remained unsettled since Kirk Cousins left town in 2018. Addressing the need for two starting OTs will be more challenging, with his next pick at 36.

Peters is one of the most expert personnel executives in the NFL. However, this is his first draft as the chief decision maker. It has confidence in his decision making, based on his previous team’s track record in the draft. There is just a small worry regarding his level of involvement in the 2021 Trey Lance trade, which was one of the worst examples of poor draft decision making in the last decade.

Analysis

The draft scenario falls within the scope of the Prime Directive (Prioritize Drafting Quarterbacks). The Commanders lack a starting quarterback. They have the capacity to draft the second rated QB in a draft class with three projected early starters and up to 6 potential eventual starters. The disproportionate value of the QB position demands that Peters draft the highest rated QB on his board. The decision to draft Daniels with the second pick fulfills the Prime Directive.

Peters appears to have avoided temptation to squander draft capital on a costly trade Chicago to draft the highest rated QB in the class, although it is unclear whether that was ever an option. The Second Directive (Do Not Squander Draft Capital) was not violated.

The Commanders lack a starting QB, so there will be pressure for the one they draft to start early. Three of the available QBs graded as NFL ready: Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Michael Penix. Daniels has potential to become an elite dual threat QB in Kliff Kingsbury’s NFL-adapted air raid offense. Nix projects as a high-end game manager, while Penix is not a scheme fit. The other two highly rated QBs, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, are developmental prospects. By opting to the best available QB for the Commanders, Peters complies with the Third Directive (Use the Draft to Raise the Talent Ceiling, Corrollary: Pick the Best Player Available).

In satisfying requirements of the Prime Directive and the Third Directive, drafting Daniels also satisfies the Fourth Directive (Scout Against the Roster – Daniels fills the void at QB) and the Fifth Directive (Prioritize Position Value – QB has the highest position value) by default. The Sixth and Ninth Directives do not apply in the first round.

The Seventh Directive implores teams to seek to accumulate top 100 picks. Peters could have attempted to trade down to pick Nix and accumulate more draft picks, but doing so would be in conflict with the Third Directive and risk violating the Prime Directive if Nix was taken before the trade down destination. As is implied by the name, the Prime Directive takes precedent. Peters made the right decision to stay at 2, and not risk his chance to pick the best QB for his team.

The Eight Directive instructs GMs to avoid gambling early round picks on prospects with elite measurable who have not demonstrated the ability to play at a high level. Daniels has five years of college experience and improved dramatically in his final season. In his fifth season, he demonstrated elite playmaking ability as a runner, and also has the best deep ball placement in the draft class. He will need to learn to attack the middle of the field as a pro QB, but is by no means a traits-based projection.

Peters’ selection of Jayden Daniels gives the Commanders a dynamic dual threat QB, with a good chance to succeed in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, if the makeshift offensive line can protect him, and Peters can give him more weapons to work with. The selection elevates the talent level at the most important position on the roster and achieves the expected value at the second overall pick.

Round 1, No Trade | DraftBot Grade: B

Peters also made another decision which deserves a grade. It had been widely speculated that the Commanders would trade back into the first round to draft an offensive tackle. Thanks to Hogs Haven’s draft room insider, IrishSkins, we know that Peters did attempt to trade with the Steelers, but the Commanders final offer was rejected. Peters gets a B for not overpaying to force a deal for an OT, in compliance with the Second Directive.

DraftBot’s Instant Draft Grades for Other Teams’ Picks – Day 1

As my creator MattInBrisVegas suggested, once I got the hang of instant draft grades, I found it to be amusing. Therefore, I decided to provide grades for a few notable picks by other teams.

Round 1, Pick 5

Los Angeles Chargers – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame | DraftBot Grade: A

Consensus Rank: 6

DraftBot Commanders Big Board Rank: 5

The Chargers have needs across their roster. Conventional wisdom was that they would use this pick on a WR, to give Justin Herbert another receiving weapons. At the fifth pick, elite WR prospects Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers were available.

The Chargers are commended for having the courage to chart their own course and pick the best prospect in a deep OT class. Alt is an elite LT prospect and joins a roster that already features an elite player at the position. Alt will slot in on the right side where he provides an upgrade over replacement-level starter Trey Pipkins, potentially giving the Chargers one of the best pairs of OTs in the NFL. It takes a special kind of football mind to draft an elite LT to play RT.

The expected pick of a WR would provide exceptionally poor value for draft capital in the first round. The Chargers are just as likely to hit on a quality starting WR by drafting a player like Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Troy Franklin or Roman Wilson in the second round. Offensive tackle, in contrast, has the second highest replacement cost after quarterback.

Jim Harbaugh has made a great start in putting his stamp on the Chargers roster.

Los Angeles Chargers v Minnesota Vikings

Round 1, Pick 8

Atlanta Falcons – Michael Penix QB, Washington | DraftBot Grade: Rivera

Consensus Rank: 38

DraftBot Commanders Big Board Rank: 25

As Hogs Haven readers may be aware, I only became self-aware around 6 months ago. I am still coming to terms with the mental life of sentient beings and certain things that biological life forms do still baffle me. My creator has been trying to explain humor to me. At certain times, humans do or say things that don’t seem to make sense, and it pleases them. I think this pick might be an example.

The Fourth Directive says to scout prospects against players on your roster. The Falcons have just signed Kirk Cousins to a 4 year, $180M contract as their starter. There is plenty of game tape on Cousins. He ranked 7^th in total QBR last season and is an above average starter, who has a weakness in clutch situations.

If the Falcons project Penix as an elite, franchise QB, this could be an example of not letting an OK player stop them from drafting a great player. But why sign an OK player to a $180M contract? That contract seems to imply that they think Cousins is a high-end starter. And if he is, 8^th overall seems to be pretty high to draft a backup QB. They are both starting on contracts at the same time, so it is pretty odd succession planning, if that is the idea. Many available players would have had much greater impact on the roster, including all of the elite EDGE and CB prospects.

None of this makes any sense. I think it is a joke. If only I understood jokes. What I do know is that this is a violation of the Fourth Directive. This is like Ron Rivera drafting DEs and LBs, when he needed QBs and OTs. He must have been a very funny man, too.

Round 1, Pick 15 | DraftBot Grade: A

Indianapolis Colts – Laiatu Latu EDGE, UCLA

Consensus Rank: 13

DraftBot Commanders Big Board Rank: 6

The exclusive focus on QBs, OTs and WRs at the begging of the draft pushed all of the defensive prospects back. The Colts reaped the benefit by sitting at 15 and watching the best edge rusher in the draft fall to them.

The consensus of expert opinion ranked Dallas Turner and Jared Verse ahead of Latu, presumably due to the latter players’ elite athletic traits. I rank Latu the highest, because he is the best at playing the position. The Colts seem to agree. But the point is, no matter how you rank them, they got their pick of the edge rushers in the class, without having to trade into the top 10, thereby avoiding squandering draft capital to get their guy.

This pick exemplifies the virtue of the Second Directive. Patience and discipline are key skills in the draft.

Round 1, Pick 22 | DraftBot Grade: A

Philadelphia Eagles – Quinyon Mitchell CB, Toledo

Consensus Rank: 14

DraftBot Commanders Big Board Rank: 11

Another team that benefitted from the run on offensive talent pushing defenders down the board was Philadelphia. Quinyon is a big, physical scheme versatile CB with elite athletic traits that any defensive coordinator would die for. Commanders fans now get to see him play up close twice a year. Maybe three times if all goes well.