Did the Miami Dolphins have Better Options at Pick 21?

The Chop Robinson pick seems to be their least popular. Is there any validity to this criticism?

Immediately following the Miami Dolphins selection of Penn State Edge Defender Demeioun “Chop” Robinson at pick twenty-one of the NFL Draft, the criticism/insults starting firing on social media. Folks were mostly upset that Miami took a perceived project with production concerns in the midst of a contending window. There is always going to be a group of fans that don’t like their decisions, but this criticism spanned to some folks in sports media, most notably Mel Kiper. Kiper gave Miami’s draft a “B”, and had issue with the Chop pick at twenty-one, saying that Miami would have been better off addressing more pressing needs with IOL Graham Barton or DL Darius Robinson. So, does he have a solid argument? Let’s take a closer look….

Draft Night Context

One of the biggest determinates in when players are selected is the availability of viable substitutes. For the most sought after positions (like edge rusher), this is especially important. The 2024 NFL Draft had four edge rushers with consensus first round grades: Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, and Chop Robinson. These were your four prototypical edge rushers that either possessed elite physical traits/athleticism or incredible production (Laiatu Latu).

The early run on quarterbacks pushed these edge rushers down the board a bit, but the run started at pick #15 when Laiatu Latu became an Indianapolis Colt and the first defensive player off the board. Dallas Turner (#17) and Jared Verse (#19) followed closely, which left only Chop Robinson as the final top-tier edge prospect on the board. There was a sizable drop off after Chop in this class of edge rushers, backed up by the fact that the next edge rusher wouldn’t go off the board until pick #56 when the Cowboys selected Marshawn Kneeland. This is all to say that Miami was lucky to get the final dynamic edge prospect in this draft and if some teams hadn’t (arguably) reached for QB’s, he would have been gone prior to pick #21.

Alternative Picks at Twenty-one

Obviously the Dolphins could have gone several different directions with this pick, but we’ll stick with the two that Mel brought up when grading Miami’s selection: Graham Barton and Darius Robinson.

Darius Robinson | DE | Missouri

Robinson was listed as a defensive end, but in reality he is what we would refer to as a “tweener.” Weighing in at 285 lbs isn’t necessarily a problem, but when you don’t have the athleticism to thrive as a true edge rusher it limits where you can be productive. While Robinson has sought after traits (long arms/frame) Robinson’s 4.95 40 yd dash (1.73 10 yard split) doesn’t scream elite get off. He’s a little too small to line up as a 0/1/2/3 technique interior defender, but not athletic enough to rush as an OLB. That means he would likely be an early down 4/5-technique (3-4 DE) early in his career if Miami were to select him. The other thing is that Robinson doesn’t have an advanced pass rush plan/repertoire at this point in his career. Robinson could develop into a good interior player down the line, but it’s hard to imagine how this pick would make any sense for a team in dire need of pass rush help.

Graham Barton | IOL | Duke

Barton saw playing time in each of his four years at Duke and spent the last three seasons filling in at left tackle. While Barton’s tape at Duke was fantastic, he isn’t likely to stick at left tackle in the NFL due to his lack of measurables for the position. He is projected to kick inside at this level, something he hasn’t done since 2020 when he played 430 snaps of center for the Duke Blue Devils. Barton has the athleticism to succeed at guard or center in the NFL, but it could take him a year or two to really come into his own as interior player.

Picking Barton would have made sense for Miami (and a part of me wanted them to), but it would have been a poor value. To demonstrate what I mean, let me concoct a hypothetical situation. Let’s assume that Miami selected Graham Barton and played him at guard. Let’s also assume that year one in the NFL, he would have been the 20th best guard in the NFL (a tall task for a rookie). What would it take in free agency to replace that? Well, the 19th-21st highest paid guards make an average annual salary of $8,500,000.

Now let’s play out the exact same situation, but we can plug in Chop Robinson. What would it take in free agency to replace the 20th best edge rusher? Well the 19th-21st highest paid edge rushers make an average annual salary of $17,000,000. That is even assuming teams let those players walk (they typically don’t) It makes much more sense to draft these premium (expensive) positions and address the less expensive ones via free agency. Kind of like how Miami added a top-12 center in Aaron Brewer for only $7,000,000 a year.

Why Chop was the right decision

I’ve been hearing a lot about what Chop Robinson is (or isn’t), so let me give my take on who he was at Penn State and what he can be in the NFL. He was an edge defender who had a mostly late down (2nd/3rd/4th) role for Penn State. His run defense leaves something to be desired but he is an absolute disrupter as a pass rusher. He is a little bit of a “one trick pony” at this point in his career, but that trick is absolutely world class. In a lot of his reps he wins with his very first step… it looks like the tackle doesn’t even get out of his stance. This explosiveness is evidenced by his elite combine performance. A 1.54 10-yard split isn’t just good, it is historically good. The last edge player over 250 lbs to register a faster time was Cliff Avril back in 2008.

When you consider that Miami just hired Anthony Weaver (who was a defensive line coach for Baltimore), this pick makes even more sense. When a player has a first step as good as Chop’s all they really need is a good counter off that to be successful early in their career. Think of a player like Dwight Freeney who made a career of being an elite athlete with a great counter (spin move). In college an athlete like Chop could just overwhelm most tackles, but in the NFL you’ll run across players that can take that away. If they can help Chop develop a solid inside counter or just further develop his bull rush, he can be a very productive pass rusher early his career and potentially develop into an elite one. Not a crazy task for someone like Weaver who has an extensive background with the defensive line (he also played defensive end).

Final Thoughts

I get why folks wanted Miami to take some other positions. Maybe a bigger defensive lineman to replace Christian Wilkins, or an athletic interior offensive lineman to replace Connor Williams and Robert Hunt. With that said, Edge may be an even bigger need going into this season. Without knowing how/when Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips will return, that only leaves a 31 year old Shaq Barrett to rush the passer from the edge. We all saw how much of a step back the defense took last year when they lost Chubb, Phillips, and Van Ginkel to end the season. The selection of Chop Robinson represented the best value for Miami and filled their biggest need to start the 2024 season. So, Mel… how about we bump that grade up a bit?