Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke may have pulled off another first-round masterclass.
The Jacksonville Jaguars traded down in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Such an occurrence is usually looked down upon by fans. Casuals want their team to draft a prospect whose name they recognize, and many believe it’s best to pick as high in the draft as possible to come away with as close to a sure thing as possible.
In reality, ‘sure things’ don’t exist in the draft. The fact that teams overrate their ability to delineate between booms and busts is not a new concept — it was originally brought about nearly 20 years ago in a 63-page research paper by economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey.
Still, as The Athletic’s Alex Lewis recently highlighted, “Analysis is only as good as a decision-maker’s willingness to put it into action.”
“I think the industry is relatively aware of Dick and Cade’s research on the draft,” one longtime NFL executive said. “But I don’t think there have been a lot of people willing to say: ‘I’m going to fully invest in doing this differently than it’s always been done.’”
By now, every team is aware that the way to ‘beat the draft’ is to stockpile picks and take as many swings at the plate as possible; the more chances you give yourself to get a hit, the more hits you should be able to get. Yet most teams remain overconfident in their ability to select prospects.
As it turns out, most teams do not include the Jaguars.
“If you talk to the analytics people, they’ll tell you never move up,” general manager Trent Baalke said before this year’s draft. “Acquire as many darts as you can, keep moving back. You just got to look at the board and let the board speak.”
He backed up his talk on Thursday night. Six quarterbacks flew off the board in the first dozen picks, and a draft record 14 consecutive offensive players were selected, which opened up the door for Dallas Turner to slip in the draft. When the Minnesota Vikings inquired the Jaguars about moving down, Baalke wisely obliged.
Jacksonville’s head of football ops says the team would’ve picked Brian Thomas Jr. had it stuck with its original 17th overall selection. John Shipley and I agreed on the Jaguar Report podcast that we believe his claim, but regardless, Baalke deserves recognition for not falling into the We Know Ball trap and accepting the Vikings’ offer rather than sticking at no. 17 to select his favorite prospect available.
And when we look at what that offer entails, the move looks even better. Jacksonville gave up the 17th overall pick for a 2024 first-rounder (no. 23), a 2024 fifth-rounder (no. 167), a 2025 third-rounder and a 2025 fourth-rounder.
The Jaguars added a second-rounder in excess value according to charts by ESPN (via Seth Walder), Pro Football Focus, Over The Cap, Chase Stewart and Ben Baldwin (via Anthony Reinhard).
Jacksonville gets a pat on the back for acquiring extra draft capital, i.e. extra swings at the plate. That Thomas Jr. still ended up in teal is the cherry on top, though it was also a calculated move by Baalke. He slid back six slots knowing that none of the teams picking from no. 18 to 22 were likely to select Thomas Jr. (the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins were rumored to be interested in a first-round receiver, albeit specifically Xavier Worthy).
Baalke led off the draft’s second run of wide receivers. After Thomas Jr. went off the board, Worthy and five other receivers were selected by the 38th overall pick. Only three wideouts were drafted in the following 40 picks.
The move was reminiscent of Christian Kirk’s contract changing the landscape of NFL receiver contracts. It was also similar to the trades Baalke made in last year’s first round, when Jacksonville moved back three spots and still landed its top target in Anton Harrison. One of the picks added from that night ended up being used to select Antonio Johnson.
It’s too early to tell how beneficial Thursday’s trade-back will turn out, but for the second Round 1 in a row, Baalke expertly surveyed the board and maximized his team’s chances at draft success. That’s especially impressive given how he was previously known to prefer trading up and hasn’t had the most success with that strategy in Jacksonville (Jordan Smith, Devin Lloyd, Snoop Conner).
Baalke was asked at the team’s post-Round 1 press conference if he felt the Jaguars “fleeced” the Vikings.
“No, I think it was a fair trade. I have a lot of respect for [Vikings general manager] Kwesi [Adofo-Mensaf] and he’s one of the bright minds in this business when it comes to numbers and analytics and everything else. He’s not going to get fleeced. He did a good job. They got the player they wanted and they gave us what they were willing to give up. It’s not about fleecing one another. No one is going to get one over on another one, it’s just what are they willing to give and are you willing to accept it? It’s as simple as that.”
Don’t worry, Trent, I’ll say it for you.
Minnesota, you just got Baalke Balled.
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