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Daily Slop – 24 Apr 24: Odds when drafting quarterbacks in the top-5 “are worse than a coin flip”

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A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East and the NFL in general

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Washington Post (paywall)

Picking a QB in the NFL draft remains a mysterious blind date

Finding a QB is frankly still a blind date. “Do we look stressed?” Washington General Manager Adam Peters asked. Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye? Michael Penix Jr. or J.J. McCarthy? It’s a quant’s quagmire. As sure of a shot as Caleb Williams of Southern California seems to be as the No. 1 pick for the Chicago Bears, data suggests that teams are wrong in identifying “franchise” quarterbacks roughly 75 percent of the time. Meanwhile, there could be a guy hiding somewhere further down. He may not have the hand size or some other measurable, but he has a low sack rate, he senses pressure, and he might be some organization’s dream date.

The fail rate when it comes to drafting first-round quarterbacks is worth examining in itself. How can people be so wrong about something they spend so much time studying? Last year, predictive analyst Warren Sharp surveyed 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011. He found they had started about 2,000 games. Their collective record? A half-game below .500. Only 19 percent of the time did they make the playoffs. Bill Barnwell of ESPN did his own research, charting the career fates of QBs taken in the first round since 1983. He found just 27.5 percent achieved what he defines as “franchise” status, meaning established winners for their teams. The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg limited his analysis to quarterbacks taken in the top five since 2011 and found the odds of landing a franchise QB even in that zone are worse than a coin flip.

Washington Post (paywall)

QB analysts are better than ever, but the draft is a different beast

Last season, subscribers clamored for O’Sullivan to study San Francisco’s Brock Purdy and Chicago’s Justin Fields. They wanted to know how much credit Purdy deserved for the 49ers’ success and how much to blame Fields for Chicago’s disappointing season. Fields was personal; O’Sullivan had ranked him No. 1 in the 2021 class — ahead of top pick Trevor Lawrence — because he loved Fields’s growth, athleticism and high ceiling.

Over the first two years, Fields was uneven, and O’Sullivan regularly went back and forth with Bears fans. He processed Fields’s third season in real time on the channel, with breakdowns that regularly ran more than an hour. Ultimately, he concluded Fields and Purdy were somewhat responsible for their offenses’ performances but had contrasting situations: The 49ers maximized Purdy and the Bears hindered Fields.

For anyone paying attention, 49ers and Bears fans fueled the growth of O’Sullivan’s channel and presented a model for growth in the booming market: Expertise and engagement.

Chase Daniel — a journeyman quarterback over 14 NFL seasons — has a similar story to O’Sullivan, and after he retired in 2023 he started podcasting and going in studio for NFL Network. But he noticed that, for massive national games, network broadcasters had to define even basic terms such as “cover-two.” Daniel realized a large audience on social media wanted to go deeper, so he started posting quarterback breakdowns. On Oct. 1, his YouTube channel had 4,900 subscribers; six months later, it had 48,000.

“When I was playing, I didn’t see a lot of [deep analysis] out there because no one really thought people would like it,” Daniel said. But he believes fans are becoming smarter and more curious, maybe in part because of the rise in sports gambling, and saw an opportunity to improve their understanding.

“QB analysis was there, like on the deep, dark web of Twitter, but it was people doing it that had no idea about it. It was your-mom’s-basement people,” he said. “[QB analysis has] gotten a lot more serious, especially this past year.”

The market will probably continue to grow. Analysts can receive ad money from YouTube — the healthiest economy on the entire internet — and build direct relationships with viewers. O’Sullivan said he has about 4,000 paying subscribers on Patreon, where memberships start at $5 per month.

But during the draft process, NFL expertise becomes less applicable. The college game is not the same — the hash marks are wider, some rules differ — and it’s impossible to project performance.

For analysts, the draft presents a paradox: Fan interest goes up as the quality of their analysis — and the availability of game film — goes down. And they know it. That’s why, during a recent episode, O’Sullivan looked visibly uncomfortable.

O’Sullivan said the show with his quarterback draft rankings is one of his least favorite of the year. (Ariana Drehsler for The Washington Post)

“TODAY,” O’SULLIVAN SAID INTO THE CAMERA, “one of the most anticipated videos of the year. One of my least favorite videos of the year to make. You guessed it: The Quarterback School 2024 draft quarterback rankings.”

The Athletic (paywall)

Russini: What I’m hearing about the NFL Draft and Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and teams moving up

The “Don’t get cute” phrase is used in NFL meeting rooms this time of year for a reason. Stick with the draft plan, block out the temptations. Some teams pick the best player available, some teams go for need. When both of those scenarios collide, that’s a good pick. Right now decision-makers are all hearing opinions as to who they should pick from draft experts, scouts, agents and — as one head coach shared — even parishioners at church. People in his community are quick to give their evaluations during the custom exchanging of the peace greeting at Mass.

The executives at Topgolf should be sending Washington general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn free golf for life after advertising their company better than if Masters winner Scottie Scheffler were their spokesman. The Commanders recently took about 20 draft prospects, including quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy, for an outing at a nearby Topgolf.

Since the visit, league sources have said Daniels has told people in his “dream world” he could reunite with Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who was an assistant coach at Arizona State during Daniels’ time with the Sun Devils, or play under Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota. The belief around the league is the Commanders and Daniels will get past this bogey, and he’s expected to be the team’s QB of the future. But also watch for the Commanders to use one or some of their second-day picks to move back into the first round to get another starting-caliber player. Peters calls it “optionality.”

Teams are expecting that if the Patriots make a trade, they won’t do the deal until they see who Washington is taking at QB.

ESPN

2024 NFL draft news: Intel on top picks, prospects, sleepers

Washington spent significant time scouting Daniels, and its actions suggest it has zeroed in pretty firmly. The Commanders do like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, too, but that would be a pretty big upset pick.

Graziano: While Washington seems set on staying put and selecting a quarterback — as Jeremy said, most believe it’ll be Daniels — at No. 2, the Patriots are legitimately considering all options with the No. 3 pick. They could absolutely stay at No. 3 and take their favorite quarterback still on the board, but they’ve also made it clear they’re willing to listen to offers from teams looking to trade up to that spot.

The key thing to watch is how far back they’re willing to go. Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with Minnesota or No. 12 with Las Vegas might be too precipitous a drop for the Patriots to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they were to move back only three spots in a trade with the Giants, who pick sixth, they could still be in position to pick a quarterback in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks.

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. was among the quarterbacks with whom the Patriots visited in the pre-draft process, and people I’ve spoken to say that visit was to gather information on the lefty quarterback in case they decided to trade down. I believe they’re high on him, though I don’t think he’s a consideration if they stay at No. 3.

Fowler: “Common sense says the Patriots need a quarterback,” a team source told me. My sense after asking around to several sources is that the Patriots have Daniels rated ahead of North Carolina’s Drake Maye in the pecking order but still like Maye’s upside. McCarthy would fall somewhere after that, though I was reminded Tuesday night to not totally discount Robert Kraft’s affinity for Tom Brady, who might see shades of himself in McCarthy, a fellow Michigan product. The Patriots could trade back and acquire McCarthy with a later pick.

Which QBs make sense for Las Vegas?

Graziano: The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take Daniels and reunite him with coach Antonio Pierce, who was on the Arizona State coaching staff back when Daniels began his college career there. But they know they might not be able to do that, especially if Washington has decided on him at No. 2. The Raiders have talked with the Cardinals about what it would take to get to No. 4, but Arizona has said it wants to wait until it is on the clock (i.e., see which quarterbacks went in the first three picks) before considering trade offers. The Raiders’ interest in the No. 4 pick would, I believe, cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.

Fowler: Multiple people have told me this week that they believe the Falcons like Penix a lot. Enough to take him No. 8 overall? That’s hard to say. But he’ll likely be long gone by the time the Falcons are on the clock again at No. 43.

Quarterback isn’t an on-paper need for Atlanta after the Kirk Cousins signing. But general manager Terry Fontenot hasn’t drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds of any of his first three drafts. Falcons brass, including Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris, flew all the way to Seattle to watch Penix work out for a few hours, then flew home. No dinner, no stayover. Penix has enough interest that the top 15 isn’t off the table for him.

Commanders Wire

One edge rusher for the Commanders to target in each round of the 2024 NFL draft

Round 2: Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan

The Commanders met with Kneeland, who offers some versatility at the next level. He can move well but is not explosive like Robinson. He was a productive college player without elite sack numbers. Kneeland can play standing up or with his hand in the dirt and sets the edge in the running game. Kneeland’s pass-rush numbers could improve in the NFL with Quinn’s coaching.

Round 3: Austin Booker, Kansas

Round 5: Jalyx Hunt, Houston Christian

Jalyx Hunt is like a blank canvas. He began his career at Cornell as a safety before transferring to Houston Christian, where he was a mismatch against opposing offensive linemen. Hunt took advantage of his time at the Senior Bowl and will be drafted. Hunt is a freak athlete who could thrive in a specialized role for Dan Quinn. He is a name to watch.

Pro Football Talk

Could offering Justin Jefferson get Vikings to No. 2?

Here’s the question. Would Jefferson for the second overall pick (which would become Jayden Daniels), straight up, be enough? Would the Commanders want more?

They’d surely want the eleventh overall pick in order to get their own quarterback. Would Jefferson plus the eleventh overall pick in exchange for the second overall pick and the thirty-sixth overall pick get it done? How about the second overall pick and receiver Terry McLaurin?

It all comes down to whether the Commanders would want Jefferson — and whether they would be willing to pay him. They also would need to have a solid answer at quarterback.

Podcasts & videos

Final Draft Thoughts & Beltway Football Mock Draft: if you made it this far, we owe you a draft pick

Photos

PHOTOS | Offseason workouts, 04/23

Check out the top photos of the Washington Commanders’ veterans taking the field for a voluntary minicamp.





NFC East links

Sportskeeda.com

Insider notes on 2024 NFL Draft: Trade talk heating up for Broncos’ #12 pick, Cowboys eye top center, and more

As of Tuesday afternoon, I’m told the Eagles are speaking with the Denver Broncos about trading for the 12th selection so they can draft [Quinyon Mitchell]. The Broncos, in turn, would receive the Eagles’ pick in the first round (22nd selection) which they would use to draft quarterback Bo Nix.

This assumes the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t beat out the Eagles for that pick.

The Dallas Cowboys desperately need a center and the team has interest in [Jackson] Powers-Johnson.

SB Nation links

Windy City Gridiron

How do NFL teams value future draft selections?

There’s a lot of noise out there regarding how teams value draft picks. The reality is that teams are pretty consistent in how they devalue future options.

The old standby was that a future pick was devalued by one round, so that a future 4th-round pick (for example) carried the same value as a current 5th-round pick. However, it has come in vogue to question that, instead arguing that front offices really value future picks as a pick toward the end of the round in question. Underneath this idea, a future 3rd-round pick would be valued as pick #96 or #98. At least one popular site claims that future picks are valued as the 24th-pick of the designated round, in which case a future 2nd-round pick would actually be valued like pick #56!

Well, it turns out that since the new collective bargaining agreement went into effect, there have been more than 80 trades of future picks that did not involve a player on either side, meaning that all of the values are basically knowable.

NFL league links

Articles

Over the Cap

NFL Drafting Strategies


ESPN

When is 2024 NFL draft? Date, time, channel, how to watch

*All times Eastern

Coverage of the first round begins at 7 p.m. on ESPN with “NFL Draft Countdown.” The draft begins at 8 p.m.

Coverage of Rounds 2-3 begins at 8 p.m.

Coverage of Rounds 4-7 begins at 12 p.m.

Fans can watch picks unfold on ESPN, ABC and the ESPN App.

There will be two different streams for ESPN and ABC. ESPN’s presentation will focus on areas of need for each team, the draftee’s football resume – with highlights and analysis on his playing style, technique and physical attributes – and how he will fit in with the team that drafted him. ABC will provide player analysis with a deeper emphasis on storytelling, providing viewers insight into the draftee’s background and journey to the NFL.

Pro Football Talk

Bears want $2.3 billion in public financing for new stadium project

[T]he total project (stadium and infrastructure) will cost $4.6 billion. The Bears are willing to cover half, with public money covering the other half.

The stadium is expected to cost $3.2 billion. The infrastructure improvements are expected to cost $1.4 billion.

[T]he focus has become staying in the city, with a new, fixed-roof venue that would obviously generate revenue all year long.

It won’t be easy. It definitely won’t be cheap. And it always keeps getting more expensive — especially in an era where the NFL seems to be making so much more of its money through TV and not in-person attendance.

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